W3 Rice Update: Philippines Expects to Maintain Position As World's Top Rice Importer in 2024, and Rice Prices Surged in Thailand and India

Philippines Expected to Maintain World's Top Rice Importer Position in 2024

In 2023, the Philippines surpassed China and became the world's largest rice importer, importing 3.9 million metric tons (mmt) of rice, mainly from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan. The leading exporter to the Philippines, Vietnam shipped over 3.1 mmt of rice worth USD 1.7 billion. Due to the El Niño phenomenon causing drought and threatening the country's food supply, the Philippine government intends to increase its rice stockpile and import an additional 500 thousand metric tons (mt) of rice by Feb-24. In addition, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that the Philippines' rice imports will achieve a new record of 3.8 mmt in 2024. This increased demand for rice in the country will provide an opportunity for Vietnam's rice industry.

Vietnam Seizes Opportunities After India Restricted Rice Exports in 2023

In 2023, India's decision to restrict rice exports, constituting 40% of global rice exports, opened opportunities for other nations. In particular, Vietnam capitalized on this situation, achieving unprecedented success in rice exports with a total of 8.131 mmt valued at nearly USD 4.7 billion. Despite predictions of increased rice prices in 2024 due to a constrained supply, Vietnam aims for stability by maintaining a 7.1 million-hectare (ha) rice cultivation area and targeting 8 mmt in exports. The global rice production estimate for the 2023/24 crop year is 518.1 mmt, with ending stocks at 167.8 mmt – the lowest in six months. The projection for global rice import/export in 2024 is 52.1 mmt, lower than the Dec-23 forecast.

Vietnam's Rice Exports Reached USD 134.57 Million in First Half of Jan-24

In the first half of Jan-24, Vietnam exported 194.07 thousand mt of rice, valued at USD 134.57 million, according to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs. Despite a slight decrease of 32 thousand mt in rice export volume, the turnover increased by almost USD 20 million, attributed to a significant rise in the average export price, marking a 36.68% year-on-year (YoY) increase, reaching USD 693/mt compared to USD 507/mt in 2022.

Rice Prices Surged in India and Thailand Due to Strong Demand and Reduced Supply

In W3, 2024, India's rice prices reached a four-month high due to strong demand and reduced supply. The 5% broken rice was quoted from USD 525 to 535/mt, a significant increase from USD 510 to 517/mt in W2. Despite weak demand, reduced rice availability caused by government procurements led to the price hike. Additionally, due to solid demand from Indonesia and some African markets, Thailand's 5% broken rice increased to USD 665/mt from last week's USD 648 to USD 650/mt.

Thai Commerce Minister Targets Western US for Rice Market Expansion

The Commerce Minister of Thailand is currently in Los Angeles, actively pursuing opportunities in the United States (US) market for premium rice and food products. To increase exports by USD 49 million (THB 1.75 billion), he emphasizes the significance of the US as Thailand's second-largest trading partner and the primary importer of Thai Hom Mali fragrant rice. The focus is on the western US market, where he plans to engage with importers, conduct in-store promotions for Thai rice, and establish distribution collaborations. The overarching objective is to support Thai farmers and leverage the sizable Thai and other Asian communities in the region.

Indonesia Plans 3 MMT Rice Import to Tackle El Niño-Induced Deficit

To address a national rice deficit of 2.3 mmt resulting from El Niño, Indonesia plans to import 3 mmt of rice in 2024. The country imported 3.5 mmt in 2023, with 3 mmt already delivered and an additional 500 thousand mt expected in Jan-24. This decision is a response to the impact of El Niño, as January's rice production fell below 1 mmt. The President has approved the import of 2 mmt from Vietnam and Thailand, aiming to ensure ample rice supplies and address the existing deficit.

Bangladesh Food Ministry Fights Against Rising Prices for Rice

The Food Ministry of Bangladesh has taken measures to address the abrupt surge in rice prices following the 7th general election in Jan-24. Multiple teams conducted inspections in Dhaka, warning traders against price gouging and scrutinizing documentation. However, an inspection in Malibagh market revealed ineffectiveness, as no fines were imposed. In response, the ministry issued a four-day ultimatum for traders to lower prices and threatened rice imports if necessary. Faced with market closures in Mohammadpur Krishi market due to fear, the ministry plans to deploy mobile courts, led by deputy commissioners, to take stringent action against rice traders engaging in price manipulation. Local reports indicate a recent increase of USD 0.06 to 0.07 per kilogram (kg) in rice prices in Bangladesh.

Iranian Rice Import Reached a Value of USD 1 Billion

The secretary of the Iranian Rice Producers and Suppliers Association revealed that Iran has imported 805 thousand mt of rice valued at USD 1 billion, involving 149 companies. The association itself imported 256 thousand mt, the Importers Association brought in 347 thousand mt, and the government managed the remaining imports. Some importing firms also purchased domestic rice. In the midst of corruption allegations and the allocation of USD 700 million to a specific company, the head of the association has called for documentation to verify these transactions. The association emphasizes the legality of receiving government currency and advocates for stability by addressing fluctuations in rice imports.