W32: Potato Update
In W32 in the potato landscape, the global potato market will experience significant fluctuations in 2023, with typically high prices in several countries. The Netherlands' weather conditions are affecting the potato harvest in 2023, with rain potentially providing more supply. Markets report low trade volume, but the growing chip industry, which requires raw materials, has caused contract prices to rise. Meanwhile, Belgium faces uncertainty in the upcoming potato season due to spring problems affecting production, but the harvest could recover depending on the weather. Also, the German potato market is impacted by consumers choosing to travel abroad for holidays, leading to decreased purchases in the local market.
The potato market in France continues to suffer from the 2022 production shortage, with seasons overlapping one another. High demand is still exceeding supply, causing a tight market characterized by high prices. Factors contributing to this situation include limited potato supply, weather-related delays, and industry demand. To address this, the processing sector is importing Spanish potatoes to fulfill its needs. The potato industry in the United Kingdom (UK) experienced an improved harvest in 2023, although it took some time to address the potato shortage. Potato prices started to increase in mid-May-23, and finding high-quality potatoes proved challenging. In Italy, the quality of potatoes compensates for lower yields, while Spain is in a market limited by supply.
According to Tridge’s analysis, the wholesale price of fresh common potatoes in Poland increased 26.31% week-on-week (WoW) in W32. However, compared to the previous month, the price experienced a notable 20% month-on-month (MoM) decrease. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, frosts, uneven growth, and lower acreage, the country's potato harvest is predicted to be low. Analysts anticipate that prices will continue to rise due to stable demand and limited supply.
Potato retail sales in the United States (US) increased by 16.8% between Jul-22 and Jun-23, reaching USD 16.9 billion, the highest value in five years. The last quarter (April - June 2023) saw 14.5% more turnover than in the same period during the previous year, with sales remaining 2.5% above pre-pandemic levels. Retail prices for all potatoes increased by 19.9% for 2023, but potatoes remain affordable for consumers. The average price during this period was USD 2.36/0.45 kg.
Tridge's analysis indicates that in the preceding month in South Africa, a significant decrease in fresh potato prices is due to increased supply. The wholesale prices of fresh common potatoes in Durban experienced a decline of 13.9%. As of August 7, the price stood at USD 0.4/kg (ZAR 8.4/kg), which is in contrast to the price of USD 0.5/kg (ZAR 9.5/kg) recorded on July 10. This price decrease is due to the increased availability of fresh potatoes in the market.
Lastly, the 2022/23 potato season in China's Central Plains is experiencing increased production in the north and south, with new potatoes arriving in mid-late July. Potato prices are lower than in 2022 due to increased supply, but buyers are cautious. The Central Plains produce potatoes from May to July, with slightly lower production due to cold weather conditions.