W34: Chicken Update

In W34 in the chicken landscape, the European Commission (EC) reports that the average price of whole chicken reached USD 2.87 per kilogram (kg) in the European Union (EU) during the first 32 weeks of 2023. This is a 7% increase compared to the same period in 2022. Notably, whole chicken prices surged by a significant 26.7% to USD 2.75/kg in Hungary during this period. Similarly, AKI PÁIR reveals that the chicken breast fillet price increased by 12.4% to USD 5.57/kg, bone-in chicken breast by 5.9% to USD 3.85/kg, the total chicken breast by 12.6% to USD 5.49/kg, and chicken thighs by 13% to USD 2.58/kg in the first 32 weeks of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 in Hungary. Additionally, live-weight producer prices for slaughtered chickens in Hungary rose significantly by 28.7% to USD 1.42/kg during the same period.

Brazil’s Chicken Production Cost Index (ICPFrango) reached 335.17 points in Jul-23, a decline of 3.08% month-on-month (MoM), continuing its downward trajectory. Within ICPFrango, various cost components registered reductions in Jul-23. The nutrition item, accounting for a significant weight at 66.58% in the total cost composition, registered a negative variation of 3.69% MoM. Moreover, the expenditure on day-old chicks also marked a decrease of 3.71% MoM. The product cost of live broiler chicken in Paraná, serving as a reference for ICPFrango computation, stood at USD 0.89/kg in Jul-23, a decrease of USD 0.029 MoM.

Procon-SP reports that the chilled chicken purchase price in São Paulo, Brazil reached its lowest level in almost two and a half years in Jul-23. The recorded average price stood at USD 1.83/kg, a 6.71% MoM decrease and nearly a 25% year-on-year (YoY) decline. However, Jul-23’s chicken price was 12% higher than 2020’s, when the COVID-19 pandemic was already affecting the world but not yet officially acknowledged. In contrast, the essential food basket for São Paulo consumers remains 53% more expensive despite recent drops. Notably, although facing significant cost challenges over the past three years, chicken prices only surpassed the basic basket's price trajectory briefly between Sep-21 and Dec-21. The last instance of chicken and the basic basket displaying closely similar price trends was in Oct-22, after which the basic food basket's value decreased by 2%. In contrast, chicken prices dropped by 28%, offering a more affordable option to consumers.

The Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) reports that Mexico’s meat exports amounted to 310.87 thousand metric tons (mt), valued at USD 1.74 billion from Jan-23 to Jul-23. This indicates a 12.3% decrease in volume and a 13.1% drop in value compared to the same period in 2022. Mexican chicken meat exports reached 1.24 thousand mt, valued at USD 1.4 million in the first seven months of 2023. This is a significant drop of 45% YoY in volume and a 60.6% YoY drop in value. Notably, the unit price for the chicken meat shipment decreased by 28.4% YoY to USD 1,161/mt.

Lastly, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects China's chicken meat production to reach 13.87 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024, below the 2023 estimate of 14.3 mmt. The USDA also expects China’s chicken meat imports to reach 770 thousand mt in 2024, above the 2023 forecast of 750 thousand mt. Additionally, the USDA expects China's domestic chicken consumption at 14.11 mmt in 2024, slightly below the 2023 expected demand of 14.52 mmt.