W4 Lemon and Lime Update: Persian Lime Prices Dip in W4 Amidst Extreme Cold Disruptions in Major US Cities and USDA's Lemon Harvest Projections for EU in the 2023/24 Season

Persian Lime Prices Dropped in W4 as Cold Weather Disrupted Market Flow in the US

The Persian lime season begins in key regions of Mexico, such as Veracruz, Michoacán, and Jalisco. However, cold temperatures below -40°F in major United States (US) cities during W4 caused road closures and disrupted market fluency, leading to high inventories and declining prices. Prices for a 40-pound (lb) box of limes FOB McAllen ranged from USD 27.5 to 30.5 for all calibers during W4. The expectation is that the trend for this product will stabilize as the freight situation in the US returns to normal.

US Lime Prices Surge by 16% in W1 Amidst Challenges in Mexican Supply Chain

The US lime market experienced a 16% price increase in W1, underscoring ongoing challenges within the Mexican supply chain. Factors like aging trees and nursery diseases have introduced variability in the availability of Mexican fruit. Unfavorable cold and rainy conditions in Veracruz during Nov-23 led to reduced flowering, impacting current yields. Major retailers are responding by broadening their sourcing regions, incorporating additional supplies from countries like Colombia, which has witnessed a significant uptick in shipments to the US market this season. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining prices and supply stability in the US market.

Low Tahiti Lime Prices in Brazil Amidst Abundant Supply During Jan-24

In Brazil, Tahiti lime prices remain low due to high supply during peak harvest season. However, a downward movement in values has been observed since Dec-23. During Jan-24, Tahiti limes were traded at an average of USD 2.75/27-kilogram (kg) box (BRL 13.62/27 kg box), a 27% month-on-month (MoM) drop but still a 14% increase year-over-year (YoY). This is also the lowest monthly average since Feb-23, in nominal terms.

USDA Forecasts Lemon Harvest Surge in EU for the 2023/24 Season

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates a 16% upswing in the lemon harvest across the European Union (EU) for the 2023/24 season, reaching 1.68 million tons. According to the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Spain is expected to have a record-breaking harvest of approximately 1.2 million tons, reflecting a substantial 28% YoY increase. In contrast, Italy is projected to witness a 10% YoY decline in its lemon harvest, while Greece's yield is forecasted to remain relatively consistent with the previous season. Simultaneously, the price of lemons in Budapest experienced an 11% YoY increase in 2023, only to decline by 5% in the initial three weeks of 2024.