W4 Sugar Update: Global Sugar Prices Expected Drop by 6% YoY in 2024 Due to Improved Production, China Sugar Imports Decreased by 22.06% YoY In Nov-23

World Bank Predicts 6% YoY Drop in Global Sugar Prices by 2024 Due to Improved Production

According to the World Bank, global sugar prices will drop by 6% year-on-year (YoY), with an anticipated price of USD 490 per metric ton (mt) in 2024 due to improved sugar production worldwide. The 2024 weather outlook is positive, with the El Niño phenomenon expected to end by the mid-24, followed by a neutral climate. As a result, sugarcane cultivation and harvesting are anticipated to become more favorable in the second half of the 2023/24 crop year, leading to an increase in global production.

Additionally, the International Sugar Organization's (ISO) Nov-23 forecast predicts that the global sugar production for the 2023/24 season will only fall slightly short of the demand by approximately 0.3 million metric tons (mmt). This is a significant improvement from the Aug-23 forecast, which had predicted a deficit of 2.1 mmt.

China's Sugar Imports Declined by 22.06% YoY in Nov-23

In Nov-23, China experienced a YoY decrease of 22.06% in sugar imports, amounting to USD 275 million, with the import volume declining by 40.32% to 437.7 thousand mt. The cumulative sugar imports in the first 11 months of 2023 totaled USD 1.99 billion, reflecting a YoY decrease of 13.68%. The import volume for the same period dropped by 26.89% YoY to 3.48 mmt. Brazil, South Korea, India, Thailand, Guatemala, Pakistan, Cuba, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia were the top ten contributing countries to China's sugar imports during this period, contributing 50% of China's total sugar import volume.

Ukraine's Sugar Exports Experience Significant Growth in 2023

In 2023, Ukraine witnessed a significant upswing in sugar exports, totaling 506 thousand mt valued at USD 390 million, a substantial increase compared to the 181 thousand mt valued at USD 139 million in 2022. The European Union (EU) stands out as the primary buyer of Ukrainian sugar. Ukraine's sugar production for 2023 is estimated to range between 1.7 to 1.8 mmt, while local consumption is estimated at 1 mmt. With this surplus and without any restrictions from the EU countries, Ukrainian sugar exports will likely remain active in the coming months.