W49 Wheat Update: India Reduces Wheat Stock Limit for Stability; Global Wheat Harvest Projected at 783.01 mmt for 2023/24 MY

India Reduces Wheat Stock Limit

India has reduced the limit on wheat stocks for traders and millers to enhance grain availability and stabilize prices, addressing concerns about volatile food prices ahead of general elections in May-24. The government has halved the wheat stocks to 1,000 metric tons (mt) for traders and wholesalers and adjusted inventory limits for millers and retailers. The government aims to prevent artificial shortages and has given 30 days for adjustment, with the possibility of releasing an additional 2.5 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat if necessary to control prices.

Indonesia Expects Rebound in Wheat Imports for 2023/24 MY

Indonesia's wheat imports are anticipated to rebound in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), reaching 10.5 mmt, up from 9.45 mmt in 2022/23, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The expected recovery is due to an improving global economy, population growth, and increased demand linked to the upcoming general elections. Wheat consumption, especially in wheat flour-based food products, is projected to rise in 2023.24 due to the elections, with an estimated consumption of 8.6 mmt of wheat equivalent. Additionally, wheat is a significant feed ingredient in Indonesia and the Feed Mills Association forecasts a 5% increase in feed production to 22.4 mmt in 2024.

European Commission Revises EU Soft Wheat Stock Forecast to 18.3 mmt for 2023/24 Season

The European Commission (EC) revised the European Union (EU) stock forecast of common wheat (soft wheat) for the end of the 2023/24 season to 18.3 mmt, compared to the previous estimate of 19.1 mmt. The adjustment is due to an increased wheat use in livestock feed, with a 1 mmt upward revision in expected feed demand for wheat in 2023/24. This is influenced by ample wheat supplies and low oat production in the current season. The projected EU soft wheat exports for the season remain unchanged at 31 mmt.

Global Wheat Harvest for 2023/24 Projected at 783.01 mmt

According to the USDA’s monthly report, the global wheat harvest for the 2023/24 MY is projected to reach 783.01 mmt, an increase of over 1 mmt from the previous estimate. This upward revision is primarily attributed to improved harvest forecasts in Australia (up by 1 mmt) and Canada (also up by 1 mmt), which offset an expected decline in Brazilian production (down by 1 mmt).

Romania Forecasts Robust Wheat Harvest for the 2024/25 Season

In the 2024/25 season, Romania anticipates a wheat harvest ranging between 10.09 and 11.15 mmt. This projection reflects the potential for a gross wheat harvest surpassing 10 mmt for the sixth time in the last eight years. The expansion of planted areas, particularly in wheat, with a forecasted 2.30 million hectares (ha), aims to mitigate the impact of unfavorable weather conditions experienced in previous years.

Canadian Wheat Harvest Projections Increased to 32 mmt in 2023/24 Season

Canadian farmers project to harvest more wheat than initially anticipated in the 2023/24 season, rebounding from earlier drought concerns, as per a government report from Statistics Canada. The Dec-23 report indicates an upward trend in estimates, with total wheat production estimated at 32 mmt, an increase from the Sept-23 estimate of 29.8 mmt. While this represents the second-lowest wheat production in six years, it surpasses industry expectations, positioning Canada, a leading wheat exporter, for improved output.