W51 Chicken Update: Russian Egg Prices Stabilize Amidst Growth Challenges and Brazil Eyes Poultry Export Boost to Eastern Europe

Russian Government Strategizes on Egg and Chicken Prices Amidst Market Fluctuations

The Russian Government’s efforts to influence chicken egg prices seem to have stabilized the market, with the growth rate holding at 4.6% for W51, the same as W50. However, the year-to-date (YTD) surge of 52.9% in egg prices represents the highest growth rate in the Russian food market. Regional variations were observed, with 46 regions experiencing week-on-week (WoW) price increases ranging from 0.1% to 5%, and 36 regions facing larger WoW increases of 5.1% to 14.4%. Notably, the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug remained unchanged, while the Tula region and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug witnessed WoW decreases of 3.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, chicken meat prices accelerated to 0.6% from a 0.4% decrease after a two-week decline. Across 55 regions, chicken meat prices fell by 0.1 to 9% WoW, with six regions remaining stable and 24 experiencing WoW increases of 0.1 to 4.1%. Despite a 1.1% month-on-month (MoM) decrease compared to Nov-23, chicken prices showed an increase of 28.8% YTD.

The poultry market in Russia stagnated due to challenges in stabilizing production costs, limited investment opportunities for poultry farms, and concerns about epizootic diseases. Experts opposed a proposed export ban and instead suggested developing new directions in poultry farming, emphasizing the potential of meat production from waterfowl for export to Asian countries.

Actionable Recommendations

• Consider leveraging the potential plateau in egg prices by introducing value-added egg products, catering to price-sensitive consumers in regions experiencing stagnant increases.
• Prepare for the potential resumption of egg price increases by diversifying product offerings and pricing strategies for risk mitigation.
• Monitor and adapt to potential changes in government policies and interventions affecting food prices.

Eastern Europe Quotas Open Doors for Brazilian Poultry

In W50, Russia renewed tariff-free chicken import quotas, amounting to 364 thousand metric tons (mt). Russia and Belarus have introduced new zero-tariff quotas for chicken meat aimed at domestic processing, a move which is expected to boost Brazil's poultry exports to Eastern Europe. Effective December 12 and valid throughout 2024, the quotas allow for up to 140 thousand mt of chicken meat for Russia and 10.9 thousand mt for Belarus. Additionally, a zero-tariff quota for imports equivalent to 1.2 billion eggs to Russia has been established. While the Russian market is currently closed to fresh egg imports from Brazil, negotiations for a potential opening are underway.

The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) has released optimistic projections for chicken meat production and exports in Brazil. Estimated production for 2023 is between 14.8 and 14.9 million metric tons (mmt), marking a potential increase of up to 2.6% year-on-year (YoY). Projections for 2024 are even more positive, indicating a volume of up to 15.35 mmt, reflecting a growth of 3.7% YoY. In terms of exports, ABPA forecasts total shipments of 5.05 to 5.15 mmt in 2023, potentially rising by 6.8% YoY, suggesting international sales between 5.2 and 5.3 mmt and representing a further 3.9% YoY increase. Domestic chicken meat supply is expected to reach up to 9.8 mmt in 2023, representing a 1% YoY increase. The projection for 2024 ranges between 10 and 10.15 mmt, reflecting a potential 3.6% YoY increase. Per capita consumption is projected to be up to 46 kilograms (kg) in 2023, indicating a 1.8% YoY increase, and may rise to 47 kg in 2024, pointing to a 2.2% YoY increase.

Actionable Recommendations

• Ongoing negotiations for fresh egg import access to Russia open a potentially lucrative segment, further diversifying Brazilian export options.
• New tariff-free quotas in Russia and Belarus provide significant opportunities for Brazilian poultry exports, boosting market share and revenue.
• Fluctuations in the Brazilian real relative to other currencies could affect export competitiveness and profitability.
• Ongoing geopolitical instability and potential further developments may disrupt trade flows and impact market access in Eastern Europe.