W51 Corn Update: Global Corn Production Projected to Surge in the 2023/24 MY, and China Breaks Records with Imports

2023/24 MY Global Corn Production to Hit 1.22 Billion MT

In the new 2023/24 marketing year (MY), global corn production is projected to reach 1.22 billion metric tons (mt), reflecting a 5.6% increase compared to the 2022/23 MY. The United States (US) is expected to produce 387 mmt, up 11.1% from the previous season, while China's crop is forecast to decrease by 0.1% to 277 mmt. The European Union's (EU) production is estimated to rise by 14.7% to 60.1 mmt. Brazil's corn production is anticipated to be 129 mmt, a 5.8% decrease from the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 55 mmt, marking a significant 61.8% increase.

Global corn exports are projected to increase by 11.3%, rising from 181 million tons in the 2022/23 season to 201.5 million tons in the new season. Meanwhile, China's corn imports are expected to increase by 22.9% to 23 million metric tons (mmt), and the EU is forecast to import 24.5 mmt, a 5.8% increase year-over-year (YoY). The United States Department of Agriculture projects global corn ending stocks to increase by 5% to 315.2 mmt, with notable increases in US inventories (56.5%) and decreases in Brazilian (22.4%) and Chinese (2%) inventories.

China's Nov-23 Corn Imports Surge to 3.59 MMT, a 384% YoY Increase

China logged record corn imports of 3.59 mmt in Nov-23, marking a 384% YoY increase. This surge aligns with China's record domestic corn production of 288.84 mmt in 2023, driven by government initiatives to enhance food security through increased staple grain production. The substantial influx of imported corn is expected to impact prices in the world's second-largest global producer.

Bulgaria's Maize Exports Surged by 130% in the First Months of 2023/24 MY

In the 2023/24 MY starting Sept-23, Bulgaria experienced a significant increase in maize exports, recording 130% growth compared to the same period in the 2022/23 season. The country has exported 280 thousand mtof maize so far, showcasing a substantial increase from the previous year's 120 thousand mt, which included the entire month of Dec-23.

Brazil's 2023/24 MY Corn Planting Reaches 73.5%, Behind Last Year's Progress

During W51, the planting of Brazil's 2023/24 MY corn crop advanced to 73.5% of the total forecast, up from 65.9% in Week 50. However, this progress lags behind the 82.3% achieved in the same period last harvest. Notably, Paraná, São Paulo, and Santa Catarina have completed 100% of the corn planting for the 2023/24 summer harvest, while Minas Gerais is at 96%. The crops are at various stages, with 8.1% in the emergency phase, 49.7% in vegetative development, 21.7% in flowering, 17% in grain filling, and 3.6% in maturity. Planting progress varies in other states, with Goiás at 65%, Bahia at 60%, Piauí at 12%, and Maranhão at 7%.

Brazil's Corn Exports for Dec-23 Reach 7.17 MMT

Brazil's corn exports for Dec-23 are estimated at 7.17 mmt, a slight increase from W50's forecast of 7.14 mmt, according to data from the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC). In the annual comparison, Brazil's corn exports would decrease by 118 thousand mt. ANEC also forecasts that Brazil could achieve a record corn export volume of 56.2 mmt in 2023, compared to 44.7 mmt in the previous year, driven by demand from China and a record harvest.

Record Corn Harvest in Russia's Primorsky Territory Reaches 392 thousand MT

Farmers in the Oktyabrsky and Mikhailovsky districts of the Primorsky Territory in Russia harvested record corn, with 74 thousand mt each. Overall, agricultural producers harvested 392 thousand mt of corn from 77 thousand hectares (ha), reflecting a 105% YoY increase. Cyclones and typhoons impacted corn yields, resulting in an average yield of 5.4 mt/ha. The harvested grain will be used for local livestock farms, and part of the production is for export to neighboring regions and countries in the Asia-Pacific region.