W52 Canola/Rapeseed Update: EU Rapeseed Imports Forecasted to Reach 5.3 MMT in 2023/24 MY Amid Global Supply Dynamics

EU's Rapeseed Import to Surge to 5.3 MMT in 2023/24 MY

The European Union (EU) is expected to import approximately 5.3 million metric tons (mmt) of rapeseed in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), an increase of 200 thousand metric tons (mt) from the Nov-23 forecast. However, this is 1.5 mmt less than the 2022/23 MY. The adjustment is attributed to Australia's broader export offer due to optimistic forecasts for the rapeseed harvest in the country. Despite the increase in imports, lower rapeseed supply in the EU for the 2023/24 season is projected, resulting in significantly reduced stocks by the end of Jun-24 compared to the previous year, falling by 250 thousand mt to 1.58 mmt. This amount would cover the projected EU rapeseed demand of 25.65 mmt for the 2023/24 MY season for approximately 23 days, three days less than in the 2022/23 season.

Russia's Rapeseed Industry Surged 130% in the Past Five Years

Russia's rapeseed processing has shown remarkable growth, with a 130% increase over the past five years. In the 2022/23 season, rapeseed exports from Russia exceeded 1 mmt, and the export of rapeseed oil reached 1.45 mmt. Forecasts for the 2023/24 season suggest the potential for new records, with an anticipated export volume of 1 MMT for rapeseed oil. Despite export restrictions, the country experienced a surge in rapeseed exports, driven primarily by increased shipments to Belarus. However, rapeseed production is expected to decrease to 4.2 mmt in 2023/24 MY from 4.55 in 2022/23 MY. Unfavorable weather conditions have impacted the 2024 winter rapeseed sowing in the South of Russia, leading to expectations of a significant reduction in production in 2024.

Bryansk Rapeseed Harvest in 2023 Fell Short of Target

Bryansk farmers in Russia fell short of the announced target of 300 thousand metric tons (mt) of rapeseed in 2023, despite harvesting over 279 thousand tons from an area of 73.6 thousand hectares (ha). The yield, if achieved, would have made the Bryansk region a leader in rapeseed production in the Central Federal District, accounting for 20% of the country's total rapeseed harvest.

Kazakhstan's Rapeseed Oil Production Doubled in Jan-Oct 2023

Kazakhstan vegetable oil production from Jan-23 to Oct-23 increased by 10.2% year-on-year (YoY) to 549.6 thousand mt. The growth was particularly notable in rapeseed oil, which doubled during this period. Kazakhstan exported 37.4 thousand mt of rapeseed oil, showing a slight decrease of 3.5% YoY, with the majority going to China (31 thousand mt, up 14.5% YoY). However, Tajikistan reduced its purchase of rapeseed oil by 21.3% YoY to 6.3 thousand mt.