W52 Soybean Oil Update: Brazil Maintains Soybean Oil Forecast for 2023/24 MY; Russia Aims for a 20% YoY Increase in 2024 Soybean Oil Shipments

Brazil's 2023/24 Soybean Oil Production Forecast Maintained at 11 MMT

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Producers (ABIOVE) revised its forecast for Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production to 160.3 million metric tons (mmt), down from the earlier forecast of 161.9 mmt on December 12. However, the projection for soybean oil production in Brazil for the same period remains unchanged at 11 mmt.

Brazil Anticipates Dip in Soybean and Soybean Oil Exports in 2024

Brazilian soybean and soybean oil exports may slightly decline in 2023 due to increased domestic demand for oilseeds. Following a decision to boost biodiesel production in diesel fuel starting in Mar-24, industry analysts anticipate soybean oil exports to fall by 800 thousand metric tons (mt) to 1 mmt. This shift is driven by the Brazilian government's recent increase in the mandatory biodiesel share to 14%, up from the existing 12%, resulting in higher demand for soybean oil in the domestic market.

Russia’s Soybean Oil Shipments to Rise by 20% YoY in 2024

In 2023, Russia's preliminary data revealed a significant 29% YoY increase in oil and fat product exports, reaching over 10.5 mmt. This surge is attributed to a record harvest of oilseeds. Additionally, forecasts for 2024 anticipate a further rise in soybean oil shipments, expected to increase by 20% YoY.

Kazakhstan's Soybean Oil Exports From Jan-23 to Oct-23 Surged by 19.2% YoY

From Jan-23 to Oct-23, Kazakhstan's vegetable oil production significantly increased by 10.2% year-on-year (YoY) to 549.6 thousand metric tons (mt). Simultaneously, soybean oil exports witnessed a substantial growth of 19.2% YoY, totaling 10.1 thousand mt valued at USD 8.2 million, with destinations including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and China.

India Extends Lower Import Duty Rates on Vegetable Oils Until Mar-25

India has extended the period for lower import duty rates on vegetable oil imports, including crude palm, sunflower, and soybean oils, until Mar-25. The decision comes as the country, the world's largest vegetable oil importer, aims to manage domestic prices more effectively. The initial plan was to maintain reduced import duties until Mar-24, but the government's order allows refiners to benefit from preferential duties for an additional year.