1. Weekly News

Global

FAO Projects Record Global Rice and Grain Production in 2024/25

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects global rice production to reach a record 543 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024/25, supported by strong harvests in India and favorable weather in Cambodia and Myanmar. Moreover, the FAO raised its global grain production forecast for 2025 to 2.84 billion metric tons (mt), slightly surpassing 2024 levels. Global cereal consumption is expected to rise to 2.87 billion mt in 2024/25, marking a 1% increase year-on-year (YoY), primarily driven by record rice consumption.

Brazil

Brazil’s Rice Imports Surged in Feb-25, Prices Dropped to Two-Year Low

According to Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) data analyzed by Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA), Brazil’s rice imports (husk equivalent) rose to 141.27 thousand mt in Feb-25, marking the highest volume in eight months. This represents a 28.47% month-on-month (MoM) increase from Jan-25 and a 4.47% rise YoY. Meanwhile, the average import price in Feb-25 fell to USD 326.04/mt, the lowest in two years. CEPEA researchers attribute this price pressure to higher imports and advancing harvests in the Southern region. Domestically, liquidity in husk rice trading remains low as producers focus on fieldwork while awaiting a potential currency appreciation to stimulate exports. Processing units limited purchases to essential volumes, anticipating further price declines as the harvest progresses.

Indonesia

Indonesia Projects Rice Self-Sufficiency Until 2026

The Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs expressed confidence that Indonesia will not need to import rice in 2026. According to Central Statistics Agency (BPS) data, Indonesia’s rice and paddy production from Jan-25 to Apr-25 will reach 13.9 mmt, while monthly consumption is at 2.6 mmt. This production level will result in a rice surplus of approximately 3 mmt. If the Indonesian Bureau of Logistics (BULOG) absorbs at least 2 mmt of paddy and rice, Indonesia can secure sufficient stocks and avoid imports until 2026.

India

India Resumes 100% Broken Rice Exports Due to Surplus Stocks

India lifted its ban on 100% broken rice exports after government stocks surged to 67.6 mmt as of Feb. 1, nearly nine times the official target of 7.6 mmt. The move aims to ease surplus stocks, support low-income African nations, and benefit Asian animal feed and ethanol producers. India banned 100% broken rice exports in Sep-22, followed by broader restrictions on other rice grades in 2023 due to poor rainfall concerns. However, New Delhi lifted curbs on most rice grades after a record harvest, except for 100% broken rice. With the resumption, the Rice Exporter Association (REA) expects 2 mmt of broken rice exports in 2025, compared to 3.9 mmt in 2022. Indian broken rice prices stood at USD 330/mt, slightly higher than prices in Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan, but exporters anticipate demand will shift to India as competitor stocks dwindle.

Pakistan

Pakistan Ends Methyl Bromide Fumigation for EU Rice Exports

In a policy shift, Pakistan’s Ministry of National Food Security & Research implemented key measures to resolve interceptions in European rice exports and enhance agricultural trade. During a special meeting in Islamabad, provincial representatives, private firms, and multinational corporations decided to halt methyl bromide fumigation in Pakistan. Instead, importing countries will now conduct fumigation, aligning with international standards. Furthermore, authorities will enforce strict scientific monitoring of import conditions within two weeks. This move aims to reduce export costs, making Pakistani rice more competitive.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W11 2024 to W11 2025)

India

In W11, India's wholesale rice prices remained stable week-on-week (WoW) at USD 0.63 per kilogram (kg) but declined 5.97% YoY due to higher domestic production and high government stock levels. As of Feb-25, India's rice stocks under the Food Corporation of India (FCI) stood at 25.3 mmt, exceeding the buffer norm of 13.54 mmt. The government’s continued release of rice under food security programs and open market sales, which reached 5.2 mmt in the first two months of 2025, helped stabilize supply. Moreover, India's rice exports declined 18.5% YoY to 9.8 mmt from Jan-25 to Feb-25 due to high global prices and import restrictions in key markets like Indonesia and the Philippines. Favorable weather conditions in the 2024 Kharif season led to an estimated 2.5% increase in production, further easing supply-side pressure.

Vietnam

In W11, Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged WoW but increased 1.67% MoM to USD 0.61/kg. This is due to lower domestic supply and strong export demand. Vietnam’s winter-spring rice harvest faced delays, with output reaching 5.2 mmt as of early Mar-25, down 3.7% YoY due to irregular rainfall and lower planted area. Meanwhile, exports surged 12.4% MoM to 970 thousand mt in Feb-25, driven by high demand from key buyers like Indonesia, China, and the Philippines. Moreover, global rice prices remained elevated, keeping Vietnamese rice competitive and supporting upward price momentum.

United States

United States (US) rice prices fell 1.28% WoW and MoM to USD 0.77/kg in W11, down from USD 0.78/kg in W10. The price drop is mainly due to higher domestic supply, driven by increased production and record imports. US rice output for 2024/25 rose 2% YoY to 222.1 million hundredweight (cwt), with long-grain rice production up 12%. Meanwhile, rice imports, particularly from Thailand, hit a record 47 million cwt, boosting availability. Weaker export demand due to high competition from South American and Asian suppliers also pressured prices as buyers turned to cheaper alternatives. Moreover, global rice prices softened due to large harvests and India lifting export restrictions, further contributing to the price decline.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Expand US Rice Exports to Niche Markets

US rice exporters should diversify their market reach to counter weakened demand and growing competition from South American and Asian suppliers. With prices falling due to record imports and increased domestic production, US suppliers must explore new trade partnerships in regions where premium rice varieties are in demand. Targeting niche markets in Europe and the Middle East, where quality preferences differ from bulk buyers in Asia, can help maintain price stability and offset declining demand in traditional markets. Moreover, promoting value-added products such as fortified or organic rice can differentiate US exports in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Strengthen Logistics and Supply Chain Efficiency for Vietnamese Rice

Vietnamese rice exporters should enhance logistics and supply chain efficiency to maximize profitability amid strong export demand. With winter-spring rice output down 3.7% YoY due to irregular rainfall and reduced planted area, ensuring smooth transportation and timely shipments is crucial to maintaining buyer confidence. Investing in improved storage facilities and port infrastructure can help minimize post-harvest losses and delays, particularly during peak export periods. Furthermore, optimizing freight contracts and securing long-term shipping agreements can reduce transportation costs and enhance competitiveness against other major rice exporters.

Leverage India’s Resumption of Broken Rice Exports

Importers and feed manufacturers should shift their procurement strategies toward Indian suppliers following India's decision to lift the ban on 100% broken rice exports. With Indian broken rice priced at USD 330/mt, slightly higher than competitors but expected to gain demand as rival stocks decline, this presents an opportunity for cost-effective sourcing. Importers in Africa and Asia, particularly those in the animal feed and ethanol industries, can secure long-term supply agreements to stabilize costs and ensure a steady inflow of rice as global supplies adjust.

Sources: Tridge, Agrinet, SNA, Republika, UkrAgroConsult