W13 Tuna Update: Vietnam Eyes Billion-Dollar Comeback, Stability and Sustainability in the Global Market

Published 2024년 4월 8일

In W13 in the tuna landscape, Vietnam's tuna industry is showing signs of recovery in 2024 after a decline in 2023, with exports witnessing a significant rebound in Jan-24 and Feb-24, reaching USD 131 million, a 21% YoY increase. The sector's focus on market diversification and leveraging trade agreements bodes well for sustained growth. Vietnamese tuna exporters are expanding into international markets, with substantial growth observed in exports to smaller markets like Canada and Chile in Feb-24. Utilizing FTAs presents opportunities for tariff advantages and enhanced market access. However, the global tuna market faces stability in key production areas alongside regional variations and concerns about sustainability practices, emphasizing the importance of responsible fishing practices.

Vietnamese Tuna Poised for Rebound in 2024

Vietnam's tuna industry is exhibiting promising signs of recovery in 2024, following a period of decline in 2023. The sector's focus on market diversification and leveraging trade agreements holds promise for sustained growth in the coming years. After a 17% year-on-year (YoY) decline in 2023 to USD 845 million, Vietnam's tuna exports witnessed a significant rebound in the latter part of 2023. This positive trend continued in Jan-24 and Feb-24, with export value reaching USD 131 million, a 21% YoY increase. This trend suggests potential for strong growth throughout the year, with the possibility of rejoining the ranks of billion-dollar export commodities according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

Vietnamese tuna exporters are actively expanding their reach in international markets, mitigating dependence on traditional destinations like the United States (US) and European Union (EU). This strategy is reflected in the substantial YoY growth observed in exports to smaller markets like Canada (+146%) and Chile (+116%) in Feb-24.

Industry experts emphasize the importance of utilizing Free Trade Agreements (FTA) like the United Kingdom (UK)-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (UKVFTA) to gain tariff advantages and enhance market access. The UK market presents significant growth potential for Vietnamese tuna exports. Despite a current modest share of 1% of UK tuna imports, the UKVFTA offers preferential tariffs, and exports to this market reached USD 5.5 million in the first nine months of 2023 with the YoY increase of 48%. The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts an average annual growth rate of 8-9% for Vietnamese tuna exports to the UK between 2022 and 2025.

Global Tuna Market Experiences Stable Prices Amidst Shifting Supply and Geopolitical Concerns

The global tuna market in Apr-24 is characterized by stable prices in key production areas alongside regional variations and ongoing concerns about sustainability practices. The impact of recent geopolitical shifts, such as the FAD (fishing aggregating device) moratorium in the Atlantic, and the response of the European fishing industry to cost pressures remain to be monitored. As of W13, tuna prices in Bangkok, Thailand, remained stable at USD 1,300 per metric ton (mt), while manta ray prices from Ecuador ranged between USD 1,450-1,500/mt, showing minimal fluctuation. Ample supply in Bangkok, particularly from Peruvian waters with tuna representing 70% of the catch, contributes to price stability. Prices in the Indian Ocean region face downward pressure, with MSC-certified tuna at USD 1,410/mt and regular varieties at USD 1,355-1,380/mt. The Atlantic region, following a three-month FAD moratorium, experiences smaller tuna catches and a lack of established prices due to the lower price points in other production areas.

Recent favorable fishing conditions in the East and West Pacific Oceans have prompted international retailers, such as German retailer Lidl, to sign large purchase contracts with Ecuadorian canneries. Lower fuel costs and faster turnaround times due to active fishing in Peru are expected to maintain or slightly decrease prices in the coming months. The low-price environment presents challenges for European fishing vessels to compete with Asian counterparts. Some European companies have either shifted fishing activities or suspended operations due to cost pressures. Decline in olive oil prices to USD 8,130/mt offers some cost relief for European canneries.

A recent report by the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) regarding dolphin-safe certification issues in Oceania has led to purchasing suspensions by processing plants in the US and Europe. This incident highlights the ongoing importance of responsible fishing practices in the global tuna market.