W24: Canola & Rapeseed Update

In W24 in the canola landscape, the global rapeseed harvest is expected to decrease by 0.91 million mt in the 2023/24 season to 87.21 million mt. In the EU, production is expected to increase by 1.46 million mt to 21.0 million mt due to the favourable weather forecast, while in Canada, an increase of 1.30 million mt is expected to 20.3 million mt. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the harvest is expected to fall by 0.30 million mt to 3.20 million mt, while in Australia, it is expected to fall by 3.4 million mt to 4.9 million mt due to ongoing sowing and drought conditions. In France, the average yield of rapeseed is estimated to decrease by 6.5% YoY, reaching 3.44mt/ha in 2023. Specifically, in Centre-Val de Loire and Grand-Est, rapeseed yields are expected to drop by 3% and 16%, respectively, compared to 2022 but increase by 5.6% and 3.0% compared to the average yield from 2018-2022.

On Tuesday, June 13, the price of rapeseed for August delivery on the Paris Stock Exchange increased by 1.9% to reach USD 490.22/mt but was down 32.8% YoY. Similarly, Canadian canola rose 1.5% to USD 529.11/mt but dropped 35.7% YoY. Prices on both exchanges continued to climb throughout W24. However, rapeseed prices have dropped sharply since the beginning of 2023 due to forecasts of an ample global supply of the commodity and the importation of used waste oils and fats from China along with the biodiesel produced. The decline in canola futures has been steady and often precipitous.

The rapeseed harvest in Ukraine is anticipated to more than double the five-year average and set a new record in 2023. MARS estimated Ukraine’s rapeseed crop in 2023 at 5.47 million mt, up from the 3.04 million mt forecasts in April and 99% above the five-year average of 2.75 million mt after farmers increased the area sown by 79% from 2021. Moreover, the weather conditions for rape in Odesa in 2023 are good, and flowering ended at the close of May, so the harvest will soon commence. In Russia, the agrarians of the Tambov region have completed the sowing campaign with rapeseed sown on 6,545 ha. Lastly, following the protest in W23 calling for restrictions on the import of wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower from Ukraine as well as payment for small and medium-sized grain producers, Moldovan farmers suspended protests to negotiate with the government to boost support.