W25 2024: Sunflower Oil Weekly Update

Published 2024년 6월 28일

In W25 in the sunflower oil landscape, India's overall edible oil imports decreased by 5% YoY in the first seven months of the 2023/24 season, while sunflower oil imports saw a significant 20% YoY growth due to reduced import duties. Ukraine’s sunflower oil prices rose by 2.5% WoW and 10.8% MoM due to reduced supply and increased demand from India and the EU. In MY 2024/25, global sunflower supply is expected to decrease, with mixed regional harvests. The EU projects a slight increase in crop yield, while Russia and Ukraine anticipate declines in sunflower harvests. Sunflower oil prices in Russia remained unchanged this week. The price in Ukraine decreased by 2.06% WoW.

1. Weekly News

India

India's Edible Oil Imports Decrease, but Sunflower Oil Sees Significant Growth

India's edible oil imports decreased by 5% year-on-year (YoY) to 8.67 million metric tons (mmt) in the first seven months of the 2023/24 season (Nov-23 to Oct-24). Despite this decline, sunflower oil imports rose by 20% YoY to 1.99 mmt. Total sunflower oil imports for the 2023/24 season are forecasted to increase by 17% YoY to a record 16.47 mmt, driven by a reduction in import duties on oil to 5.5%. Earlier in 2024, the government extended reduced import duties on palm, soybean, and sunflower oils until March 31, 2025. Industry representatives indicate that this policy will negatively affect processing and prices for domestic oilseeds.

Ukraine

Sunflower Oil Prices Surge Amid Supply Constraints and Increased Demand

According to Trading Economics published in W25, Ukraine's sunflower oil prices with delivery to buyers rose by 2.5% week-on-week (WoW) and 10.8% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 943 per metric ton (mt) in W24. The price surge is primarily attributed to a decreased supply from Ukraine and heightened demand from major importers, particularly India and the European Union (EU). This upward trend underscores the impact of geopolitical factors and shifting market demands on global sunflower oil prices.

United States

Global Sunflower Supply to Decrease in MY 2024/25, with Mixed Regional Harvests

Global sunflower supply and reserves are projected to decline in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY). A senior oilseeds and oils market analyst at Mintec, an independent provider of global commodity price data, forecasts that the total world supply will drop to 60.55 mmt, 120 thousand mt less than in the 2023/24 season. Despite this overall decrease, the EU expects a slight increase in crop yield, with production growing from 9.7 mmt in MY 2023/24 to 10.72 mmt in MY 2024/25. In contrast, the sunflower harvests in Russia and Ukraine are anticipated to decline. Russia's harvest is projected to decrease from 17.44 mmt to 17.03 mmt, and Ukraine's from 14.6 mmt to 14 mmt.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

* All pricing is free-on-board (FOB) * Variety: Crude sunflower oil

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W25 2023 to W25 2024)

* All pricing is Free on Board (FOB) * Variety: Crude sunflower oil * Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like supply unavailability, missing data, or seasonality

Russia

In W25, sunflower oil prices in Russia remained unchanged at USD 0.95 per kilogram (kg). The price increase is supported by intense demand from the export market and decreased MoMproduction forecasts for the 2024/25 season. According to Mintec, global sunflower seed supply is projected to drop to 60.55 mmt in the 2024/25 season, 120 thousand mt less than in the 2023/24 season. This decline will also influence the sunflower oil supply.

Ukraine

In W25, Ukraine's sunflower oil prices decreased by 2.06% WoW to USD 0.95/kg. Despite the price fluctuation, Ukraine's sunflower oil prices remain strong amidst supply constraints and increased demand, particularly from India and the EU. In addition, the increased sunflower seed prices and forecasted decreased sunflower seed supply in the 2024/25 season will continue to support the prices.

Argentina

Argentina’s sunflower oil price increased by 1.04% WoW to USD 0.97/kg. Based on a monthly and yearly comparison, the price increased by 5.54% MoM and 14.12% YoY. The price increase is supported by reduced supply from Ukraine and higher demand from India and the EU.

3.Actionable Recommendations

Expanding Market Reach and Diversification

Given the recent trends in India's edible oil imports, particularly the significant growth in sunflower oil imports, diversifying export markets is essential. India should explore emerging markets in Africa and Southeast Asia, where the demand for various edible oils is increasing. Strengthening trade relations through bilateral agreements and participation in international trade fairs can help capture new market opportunities. Additionally, reducing reliance on traditional suppliers by diversifying sources can help mitigate the risks associated with supply constraints and geopolitical factors.

Addressing Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply constraints, especially from significant producers like Ukraine, highlight the importance of robust supply chain management. Establishing resilient supply chains involves diversifying sourcing options, building strategic reserves, and enhancing logistical capabilities. Countries should explore alternative suppliers and create buffer stocks to cushion against geopolitical disruptions and seasonal shortages.

Sources: GrainTrade, AgroPortal.ua, Rosng,