W25: Grape Update

In W25 in the grape landscape, the global table grape production is expected to increase by 1.1 million tons to 27.3 million for a fourth consecutive year, with favorable weather conditions in China and Turkey, reversing losses in Chile and India. India's table grape production remains unchanged at 2.9 million tons, but rising domestic demand for raisins has led to a contraction of almost 8% in exports. Global exports remain unchanged at 3.7 million tons, with China and Peru contributing to the growth. China's production increased to 12.6 million tons due to improved farming techniques and favorable weather. Due to adverse growing conditions and lower acreage, Chile's production is expected to drop by 9% to 725 thousand tons. Peruvian table grape production is expected to rise for the eighth consecutive year due to favorable growing conditions and newly planted vineyards, boosting global market offerings. Further, the 2022/23 Peruvian table grape campaign shipped 71.5 million boxes in September 2022 and 73.5 million in December 2022, but climatic factors like La Niña and Cyclone Yaku impacted the final volume. It was reported that 46% of grapes were exported to the US, 13% to the Netherlands, 8% to China, 7% to Mexico, and 4% to Canada. Peru's coastal exports of grapes, blueberries, and avocados have increased by 8.8% YoY, reaching USD 2.3 million, with key regions like Lambayeque, Ancash, and Ica experiencing significant growth.

In the United States, Missouri wine producers may face a grape shortage due to dry weather conditions, causing fruit buds to die. Larger producers supply excess harvest, while Mexican growers like David Runge are uncertain about the harvest season's outcome. Sonoran grapes from Mexico have been gaining popularity in the US market due to the cold weather gap between Mexican shipper Divine Flavor LLC and traditional Sonora shipping. Historically, high prices were a result of low supply. However, Aldi's entry into the market has disrupted this trend by offering Mexican grapes at significantly lower prices. Aldi has priced Sonoran grapes at USD 1.49-1.99/lb, which has further increased their demand among consumers. Lastly, grapes from the San Joaquin Valley in California are expected to start later this season due to cool weather. The high-quality and healthy pricing indicate consumers are paying good money for grapes despite economic and inflationary pressures. The high-quality product pipeline drives demand, driving consumers to buy more and pay a reasonable price for grapes.