1. Weekly News

Brazil

Goiás Leads Brazilian Tomato Production with 36.6% Growth Expected in 2024

Tomato production in Goiás, Brazil, is forecasted to increase significantly by 36.6% year-on-year (YoY) in 2024, reaching 1.4 million metric tons (mmt). Released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) as part of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), this forecast positions Goiás as the leading state in national tomato production. São Paulo follows in second place with 1 mmt, and Minas Gerais in third with 519.4 thousand metric tons (mt). The planted area for tomatoes in Goiás is also to expand, growing from 13.2 thousand hectares (ha) in 2023 to 14.8 thousand ha this year, marking a 12.3% YoY increase. The transplanting of seedlings for both processing tomatoes intended for industry and staked tomatoes used for table consumption was completed by June 30 across all municipalities in the state, contributing to the expected growth in production.

Italy

Red Tomato Surplus and Green Varieties Shortages in the Italian Market

The Italian tomato market continues to experience a surplus in W28, particularly with red varieties like Ciliegino, Datterino, and Piccadilly. Despite the abundant supply, demand remains low. Prices for smooth Round bunch tomatoes are stable but high compared to the previous year. In contrast, green tomatoes, including Cuore di Bue, Round, and long Green varieties, have a lower supply, setting them apart from the red varieties.

India

Heavy Rainfall in North India Is Expected to Drive Up Tomato Prices

In North India, including Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, and Haryana, tomato prices are expected to rise due to crop damage caused by heavy rainfall in the Moradabad region. Moradabad is a significant area for tomato cultivation, supplying markets in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi NCR, and Haryana. This is due to the recent heavy rains that have caused tomatoes to rot on the plants and waterlog in fields, causing extensive crop damage. Consequently, many farmers will uproot their tomato plants to make room for other crops.

Peru

Peruvian Tomato Exports Surged in Volume Despite Price Drop in May-24

Peruvian tomato exports in May-24 totaled 1,680 mt valued at USD 2.59 million. This marks a 33% Yoy increase in volume and a 14% increase in value. Despite a 14% decrease in price, with tomatoes averaging USD 1.54 per kilogram (kg), down from USD 1.80/kg, the overall export figures were robust. Most exports (94% of total shipments) were in paste form, amounting to 1,656 mt valued at USD 2.45 million. Paste exports saw a 32% YoY increase in volume and a 9% YoY increase in value, with the price decreasing by 17% to USD 1.48/kg. Brazil was the top destination for Peruvian tomato exports, receiving 562 mt valued at USD 678,000, with an average price of USD 1.21/kg. Colombia followed closely, importing 349 mt worth USD 643,000 at an average price of USD 1.84/kg. Ecuador ranked third, importing 310 mt valued at USD 427,000, with an average price of USD 1.38/kg.

Spain

Almería's 2023/24 Tomato Production Up 8% YoY, Value Falls Due to 18% Price Drop

The Association of Young Farmers (ASAJA-Almeria), Spain, estimates a 22% YoY decline in the value of fruit and vegetable production in Almería for the 2023/24 horticultural campaign. Despite increases in surface area and production, economic challenges from falling market prices have affected overall production value. Specifically, tomato production rose 8% YoY, but an 18% price drop reduced their overall value.

South Africa

Frost Damages Crops in South Africa's Limpopo Province

On July 7, black frost severely affected crops in South Africa's northernmost Limpopo province, prompting warnings of potential food shortages in the region. Potatoes, tomatoes, and other vegetable crops suffered damage alongside infrastructure like water pipes. Reports from growers in areas such as the Soutpansberg mountain region, Levubu, Marble Hall, Arabie, and Bela-Bela highlighted significant frost damage. Currently in its peak winter season, South Africa is experiencing a cold snap that has brought snow to the south and west, freezing conditions across the country, and adverse weather conditions such as high seas and damaging winds along the shoreline, according to warnings from the weather service.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W28 2023 to W28 2024)

Mexico

Tomato prices in Mexico surged 19.09% week-on-week (WoW), rising to USD 2.62/kg in W28 from USD 2.20/kg in W27. Month-on-month (MoM) and YoY prices also surged 107.94% and 63.75% respectively. Experts attribute this price increase to a water crisis affecting several states in Northwestern Mexico, including Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango, Baja California, Baja California Sur, and Chihuahua, leading to higher prices for vegetables regularly consumed in the region. Furthermore, Mexico's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 4.78% YoY increase on June 15, 2024. This inflation rate surpasses the Bank of Mexico's target of 3% for 2024, indicating economic pressures that could affect consumer purchasing power and overall financial stability.

Morocco

Moroccan tomato prices have significantly declined, dropping by 16.67% WoW and 24.24% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.25/kg in W28. This price is notably lower than other countries such as Mexico, Spain, Turkey, and France. The decrease is due to an anticipated supply increase from regions like Oualidia, Doukkala, Skhirat, and Gharb. Experts expect this diversification of supply sources to continue putting downward pressure on prices in the coming days.

Spain

Spanish tomato prices declined significantly by 12.90% in W28, falling to USD 0.54kg from USD 0.62/kg in W27. According to the ASAJA organization, this price drop is due to unfair competition from Moroccan tomatoes, which are entering the market at prices below the agreed limits despite promises of stricter controls. The average entry price of Moroccan tomatoes into the EU has consistently remained below the minimum price set by the EU-Morocco Association Agreement since November 1st of USD 50.21/100kg.

Turkey

Tomato prices in Turkey experienced a significant decline of 15.31% in W28, falling to USD 0.83kg from USD 0.98/kg W27. This decrease coincides with the harvest of new and better quality products, typical during the summer months when fruit and vegetable prices tend to decrease due to increased availability. Previously, local tomato prices surged due to product scarcity caused by meteorological events in Adana. However, the increased supply of products has led to a notable price drop, reflecting improved supply conditions and easing the earlier scarcity-driven price pressures.

France

In France, tomato prices fell by 11.18% WoW, reaching USD 1.35/kg in W28. The price drop is primarily due to oversupply conditions caused by the influx of cheaper imports from Morocco and declining consumer demand, which impact tomato prices across the region. Similar trends are evident in European countries such as Germany and Italy, where tomato prices have decreased notably.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Invest in Climate-Resilient Agriculture in South Africa

In response to recent frost damage affecting tomato and other vegetable crops in Limpopo province, South Africa should prioritize investments in climate-resilient agriculture. This includes promoting the adoption of frost-tolerant crop varieties, such as frost-resistant tomato varieties like 'Cold Set' and 'Sub Arctic Plenty.' Additionally, improving weather forecasting capabilities and developing infrastructure to protect crops from extreme weather events are essential. Governmental support for insurance schemes tailored to farmers facing climate risks and incentives for adopting climate-smart agricultural practices can enhance the sector's resilience and food security.

Promote Crop Diversity in Morocco

Morocco should promote crop diversification in tomato-growing regions like Oualidia, Doukkala, Skhirat, and Gharb to stabilize tomato prices amidst fluctuating supply. Encouraging farmers to cultivate various crops alongside tomatoes can buffer against price volatility and reduce dependency on a single commodity. Government support through subsidies for crop diversification programs, technical assistance for farmers exploring alternative crops, and market incentives for sustainable agricultural practices can foster resilience in the farming sector.

Enhance Market Access in Turkey

Turkey should prioritize enhancing market access for tomatoes to capitalize on improved production conditions and lower prices during the summer harvest season. This includes investing in cold chain infrastructure, logistics networks, and trade agreements that facilitate the export of fresh and processed tomatoes to global markets, including the European Union (EU), Russia, and the Middle East. Governmental support for export promotion programs, market intelligence initiatives to identify emerging market trends, and technical assistance for small-scale farmers can unlock opportunities for Turkish tomatoes in international trade. Turkey can further diversify its export destinations and increase its global market share by targeting new markets in Asia and Africa.

Sources: Mercados, News24, Terravita, The Print, Portal Do Agronegócio, Agro Peru, Noro, Fresh Plaza, Agrotimes,Diario de Almeria