W38: Weekly Avocado Update

Published 2022년 9월 26일
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Mexico

Avocado exports from southern hemisphere and Mexico +29%

According to Iqonsulting's "International Avocado Market Yearbook 2022", the export of avocados from the Southern Hemisphere and Mexico has increased by 29% this season. With a share of 58.4%, Mexico is the largest avocado supplier in that region. It has shipped 1,227,070 tons this season. Peru is in second place with a share of 25.2% and a volume of 557,010 tons, followed by Chile with 6% and 126,508 tons.

Peru

Peru Becomes the Largest Avocado Supplier to the Japanese Market

Peru has recently become the largest avocado supplier to Japan. Historically, the largest avocado supplier for Japan was Mexico, with over 90% market share. However, this year, Peru became the largest supplier in June with a 64% market share, and in July with a 73% market share. In recent months, Peruvian avocados have played a more prominent role in the Japanese import avocado market thanks to its price discount on Mexican avocados. However, the substantial increase in the volume imported from Peru has decreased the price by 40% YoY.

Avocado Prices in French Market Expected to Increase in W39 as Volumes From Peru Decrease

French avocado importers are reporting that the French market, the second largest market for avocados in Europe, is starting to feel the increased volumes from Peru. Peru mainly provides big size fruit, mostly 10-12er and 14er with little fruit of smaller sizes. For this reason, the market has split in two, with large sizes in oversupply while the market for small sizes is stable. Resultantly, the prices observed in the French market vary between USD 1.60/kg for sizes 10 and 12 to USD 2.40/kg for sizes 18 to 24. However, the French market is expected to change from the end of W38 as this is the last week of large volumes of Peruvian avocados arriving in Europe at approximately 100 containers. In W39 just 20 containers of avocado from Peru are expected to arrive in Europe. The foregoing will imply a complete change of landscape, in which it is believed, there will be a very low availability of fruit, high demand and a significant increase in the price of avocado.

Peruvian exports of fresh avocado will grow 9-10% in volume at the end of the 2022 campaign

Everything points to the fact that at the end of the 2022 campaign, Peru's fresh avocado exports will grow in volume between 9% and 10%, compared to the previous campaign (in which 530,000 tons were shipped), which would represent a new record in shipments. This was stated by the president of the consulting firm Inform@cción, Fernando Cillóniz Benavides, noting that since the beginning of the campaign to date, exports have already reached 559,000 tons, which represents an increase of 8% compared to the 517,500 tons shipped in the same period of the previous campaign.

"In this year's campaign, we have had 4 months in which we dispatched around 100 thousand tons of fresh avocado, when last year we only had two months in which we dispatched a similar volume (June and July)," he stressed. And it is that in May, June, July and August the shipments totaled 100,810,781 kilos (compared to 87,683,053 kilos in the same month of 2021), 103,751,927 kilos (108,976,344 kilos in 2021), 116,441,892 kilos (107,757,873 kilos in 2021) and 99,136,524 kilos (75,235,052 kilos in 2021), respectively.

The fact that in September (as of the 12th) the shipments totaled 25,471,217 kilos stands out; very close to the 26,528,925 kilos that Peru exported in all of September 2021. "In previous years, by this date the avocado campaign would have already ended, but this year we are still exporting this fruit and with more than interesting volumes. August and September are very strong, an example of this is that, in the month of September of this year, on the 12th, we have already shipped almost the same as what was exported in all of last September”, he concluded.

Peruvian exports of fresh Hass avocado would reach 570 thousand tons at the end of this campaign

At the end of this campaign, Peru would export 570 thousand tons of fresh Hass avocado, which would represent an increase of 18% compared to the 483 thousand tons shipped in the 2021 campaign, indicated the president of the Association of Producers of Hass Avocado from Peru (ProHass), Juan Carlos Paredes Rosales. From the beginning of the year to week 36 (September 4) Peru shipped 548 thousand tons of fresh Hass avocado, registering an increase of 13.5% compared to the 483 thousand tons shipped in the same period of the 2021 campaign ( last campaign was shorter, so it ended earlier).

These 548 thousand tons of fresh Hass avocado dispatched up to week 36 were destined as follows: 300 thousand tons (+10%) were destined for Europe, 124 thousand tons (+45%) were destined for the United States, 56 thousand tons (-9%) were sent to Chile, 53 thousand tons (+3%) were exported to Asia, among others. In the remainder of this campaign (which ends at the end of September), Peru still has about 21 thousand tons of fresh Hass avocado to export. The late closure of the current avocado campaign (which ends this month with high volumes shipped) is due to the fact that the weather was colder, which delayed the ripening of the fruit and delayed the start of the campaign.

Peru: 4 irrigation modules are installed to face avocado water stress

With the purpose of facing the dehydration of the plants due to the high temperatures that are experienced in some periods of the year, the Life Commission and the District Municipality of Chaca (Huanta) installed four irrigation system modules that will guarantee good campaigns of harvest and quality of the avocado. These modules are implemented as part of the transfer of S/416,180 that Devida allocated to the local government for the execution of different agricultural actions. To date, five Farmer Field Schools (Ecas) sessions have been held, 570 personalized technical assistance sessions and the installation of two organic fertilizer production modules, with the aim of optimizing avocado production on 139.5 hectares, to the benefit of 108 families.

Chile

Chile expects 15% fewer avocados

According to Mundoagro, a yield of 186,423 tons of avocados is expected in Chile for 2022/23, which is 14.4% less than last season's 217,000 tons. The reasons for this decrease are drought and especially frost that hit the crops in late May and early June. It is expected that 55% of the harvest will be destined for export, mainly to Western Europe. The remaining 45% is sold on the domestic market.

Avocado Yearbook 2022 reveals significant increase in exports from Chile

Chile has remained the third largest global avocado exporter with a 6% share in shipments and a total export volume of 126,508 tons of avocado. The main Chilean export and production variety is Hass, with a 99.7% share among the varieties produced. As for the main markets for Chilean avocado exports, their configuration has changed over time. Twenty seasons ago the main destination was the United States, however, since 2012/13 the main market has been Europe (67.7% share of shipments) and to a lesser extent Latin America (18.5% share of shipments). The Chilean domestic market continues to be attractive in terms of prices and with a high per capita consumption of close to 5.7 kilos of avocado. For this reason, a large part of the national production remains in the country, with an approximate volume of 110,000 tons in the last season.

Avocado arrivals in the European market from Chile mark a 211% YoY increase

An increase of 211% has been experienced by the volume of Chilean avocado exported to Europe, during the first 36 weeks of shipments. Arrivals of Chilean Hass avocado in Europe reflect a very important increase so far this year compared to 2021, considering from week 1 to 36. Arrivals in 2021 between that period were 7,826 tons; while, in this year 2022, in the same weeks, they totaled 24,346 tons, marking a difference of 211% higher this year. It is estimated that for this year, up to week 52, a total arrival of 84,267 tons will be added. Total shipments for the year 2021 were 68,098 tons.

A kilo of Peruvian avocado can cost more than US$3 in a Chilean supermarket

Chile is an important producer, exporter and consumer of avocado, but its productive capacities are not always up to what it needs for its demand. For this reason, Peruvian fruit is viewed with interest from said market, where orders are increasing. So far in 2022, Chile has acquired 40,814 tons of Peruvian avocado, which makes it the fourth largest consumer of the national fruit. This volume represents 10% of the total national exports of the item, which is mainly directed to the United States, Europe and Asia. The Chilean market is attractive and every year it increases its consumption of avocados.

Kenya

Kenya’s Avocado Export Volumes Decreasing With the Export Window to Close in October

Kenya’s avocado export volumes have decreased as the season is nearing its end. The Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) will close the export window in October. However, AFA will continue to issue exporters with special clearance following an extensive audit of farms in collaboration with the Kenya Revenue Authority. Kenyan exporters are exploring the opportunity of sourcing avocados from Tanzania to continue supplying export markets. The new Tanzanian season starts in December for Fuerte while the Hass variety will be available from January 2023. The W38 FOB price for Hass avocado is USD 1.42/kg.

Avocados From Kenya and Uganda Are Performing Well in the UAE Market

Fuerte variety avocados from Kenya and Uganda have been performing very well in the UAE market recently. The shortage of Hass avocados in the market has allowed Fuerte avocados to sell and make profitable margins. Companies that regularly import and stock these varieties currently attain an average profit margin of 25–30%. The high demand for Fuerte avocados is forecasted to continue at least until W39-40. Overall, it is well-known that the UAE is a good market for Kenyan avocados.

Turkey continues to function as a transshipment hub for fruit exports to Russia

Due to sanctions that were implemented on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, Turkey is functioning as a transshipment port between Russia and exporting countries. Russia is a large market for fresh produce especially for Turkish fruit and vegetable exporters due to its advantageous geographic location. Following the Russia-Ukraine war, this advantage started to be useful for other exporting countries as well who want to export to Russia. For example, avocado demand in Russia is on the rise. Kenyan exporters are aware of the high demand from Russia but they cannot ship directly to Russia due to the sanctions. This is where Turkish companies come into play. They purchase from Kenyan exporters and re-export to their customers in Russia because Turkey has good political relations with Russia. Because of this, Turkey can still directly export to Russia without restrictions.

Guatemala

Avocado Hass Closer to the United States and Asian Countries

In 2021, Guatemala began the quality certification process for the cultivation of Hass Avocado for 50 farms interested in expanding their crops to new and more demanding markets like the United States and Asia. Forecasts indicate that the farms will complete the process by the end of September 2022 and will be able to offer 300 containers of avocados this harvest season. As for 2023, another equal number of farms is expected to pass the certification process, allowing avocado exports to surpass 1K containers for high-consumption markets such as Asian countries.

MAGA Supports Competitiveness of the Avocado Sector in Guatemala

To strengthen the commercial strategies and productive capacities of Hass avocado producers, the Guatemalan Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food (MAGA) participated in a regional meeting with producers. During the exchange of experiences, the producers agreed to improve trade standards, optimize food safety programs, strengthen agricultural practices, and use technology to offer better quality products to compete in more demanding markets. According to data from the Association of Exporters of Guatemala, avocado is exported to the Netherlands, Spain, England, Canada, and Central American countries.

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