In W40 in the blueberry landscape, Peruvian blueberry exports have sharply declined in the 2022/23 season, significantly impacting the global market. In 2022, Peru exported 273 thousand tons of blueberries valued at over USD 1.35 billion. However, in the 2023/24 season, Peruvian blueberry exports have more than halved, with only 57.5 thousand tons exported so far. The sharpest decrease occurred with the shipments to China, where exports were nearly seven times lower than the previous year. Exports to the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), the primary markets for Peruvian blueberries, have also decreased by around 2.5 times.
The primary reason for this decline is a drop in production due to abnormally high temperatures in Peru, particularly during blueberry flowering. Climate change and the El Niño phenomenon have subjected blueberry plantations to excessive stress, leading to lower yields. As a result, blueberry prices on the global market have increased significantly compared to 2022, influencing price hikes for blueberries in other regions, such as Ukraine. While there is a forecast for blueberry production recovery in Peru during the next season with more favorable climate conditions, experts remain cautious about the potential impact of ongoing climate change on the blueberry industry, which may necessitate adaptations in varietal composition and practices.
The Chilean Blueberry Committee provided the first export estimate for fresh Chilean blueberries for the 2023/24 season. The projection anticipates a 6% decrease compared to 2022 but a notable 10% growth in frozen blueberry shipments. This projection is based on a changing productive landscape with only 18.07 thousand hectares (ha) planted for the season, representing a 2% reduction from the previous year. The decrease is due to older, less productive, and shorter post-harvest life varieties, with some replaced by 607 ha of new varieties. Varieties with good productivity but weaker post-harvest performance are directed more toward the frozen market.
Chile aims to maintain its reputation as a reliable and necessary supplier, not speculating on potential quality issues with the Peruvian supply in the future. However, the impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon remains uncertain, with ongoing monitoring to assess its potential impact on Chilean blueberry exports. The strategy is to continue to renew varieties, enhance productive management, and maintain quality standards to meet market expectations. Chile anticipates competition from other blueberry-producing countries, emphasizing the importance of delivering quality fruit that aligns with current market standards.
The Polish blueberry market has experienced a notable 55% week-on-week (WoW) price increase, reaching USD 9.13 per kilogram (kg) in W39 compared to the previous week's USD 5.98/kg. This surge is due to a supply shortage as the blueberry season in Poland and Ukraine, the primary suppliers, is nearing its end. Additionally, a drop in blueberry imports, particularly from Peru, has further contributed to the price rise. The market had previously witnessed a 24% average price decrease in imported blueberries over July and August, driven by increased imports from Peru. However, recent developments, including protests in Peru and the advanced stage of the Polish blueberry season, have led to a reversal in market conditions, resulting in reduced supply and higher prices.
Lastly, South African blueberry producers are gradually recovering from the effects of recent adverse weather conditions, which caused a delay of up to six weeks in the season. Harvesting has commenced in the Western Cape, and production is projected to increase, particularly from W41, with the peak season anticipated around W44 to W45.
