Weekly Product Updates

W43: Canola & Rapeseed Update

Canola Seed & Rapeseed
Belarus
Sustainability & Environmental Impact
Crude Canola Oil & Rapeseed Oil
France
Market & Price Trends
Published Nov 2, 2023
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In W43, in the canola landscape, on Monday, October 23, Nov-23 futures on the Paris Stock Exchange fell by USD 2.38 per metric ton (mt) to USD 415.16/mt, influenced by uncertainty in the soybean complex and fluctuating crude oil prices. Prices continued to decrease on October 24, dropping by USD 6.36/mt to USD 408.28/mt. Import pressures and the arrival of new sunflower harvests are contributing significantly to the declining trend in oilseed prices on the market.

In Q1 of the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), European Union (EU) rapeseed imports dropped by almost 38%, totaling 1.23 million metric tons (mmt). This decrease is attributed to the end of a grain agreement and import bans on Ukrainian goods by EU bordering states. Ukraine was the primary source, accounting for 55% of imports equivalent to 683 thousand mt. Australia covered 23% of EU rapeseed imports during this period at 283 thousand mt, while Moldova, the third-largest supplier, saw a quadrupling in rapeseed exports to the EU at 181,716 mt. However, most of the Moldovan rapeseed likely came from Ukraine, as Moldova's own harvest was limited to 65 thousand mt in 2023.

The EU anticipates steady rapeseed production at 19.6 mmt in the 2023/24 season, even with a 1% increase in cultivated area compared to the previous year. However, EU rapeseed imports are projected to decrease by 15%. Additionally, European rapeseed oil exports for the 2023/24 season are expected to drop by 32%.

By October 20, Russian farmers had harvested 24 mmt of oilseeds, a 1.5-fold increase compared to the same date in 2022. Oilseed processing has also shown positive growth, with rapeseed oil production from Jan-23 to Aug-23 reaching 961.8 thousand mt, a 61.2% increase year-on-year (YoY). In the Republic of Bashkortostan, rapeseed harvesting is nearly complete, with 28.6 thousand mt harvested as of W43. While the rapeseed harvest in the region may be lower than in 2022, it is still expected to reach at least 4 mmt.

Ukrainian farmers have completed the sowing of the 2023 winter rapeseed crop across all regions, covering 1.14 million hectares (ha). However, concerns arise about potential production losses in the upcoming season. While, on average, 10-15% of rapeseed typically freezes during the autumn-winter period, in 2023, losses could be as high as 30–35%, three times the usual rate. Unfavorable weather conditions have caused 10-15% of farms to opt out of sowing winter rapeseed in 2023, and about 30% have sown but are encountering non-viable seedlings or experiencing no growth at all. Consequently, the outlook for the 2024 rapeseed harvest appears gloomy.

Lastly, in Belarus, as of October 25, 8.9 mmt of grain, including rapeseed, were harvested, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food. Additionally, Kazakhstan had 163 thousand mt of rapeseed reserves by October 1, 2023.

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