Weekly Product Updates

W43: Chicken Update

Frozen Whole Chicken
Published Nov 3, 2023

In W43 in the chicken landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects global chicken meat imports to reach nearly 11.5 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024, an increase of 2.37% compared to the 2023 forecast. Japan, Mexico, and the United Kingdom (UK) are projected to remain the primary importers, collectively accounting for over a quarter of global imports. China's chicken imports have surged since 2019, with Chinese imports expected to grow by 42% compared to the 9% expansion in global imports. The Philippines also demonstrates substantial growth in chicken meat imports, with an almost 30% increase, overtaking South Africa and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The European Union (EU) and Saudi Arabia have reduced their imports compared to 2019. Iraq is also anticipated to cut its chicken meat imports in 2024 following a significant 178% year-on-year (YoY) increase in shipments from Brazil in the first nine months of 2023. Notably, all these importers are significant consumers of Brazilian chicken meat.

Brazilian chicken meat exports reached almost 3.81 mmt during the first nine months of 2023, a 7.63% YoY increase. Despite facing an 80% YoY reduction in volume, Brazil’s northern region recorded a 12.28% YoY increase in the average price for chicken meat. In contrast, chicken meat exported from other regions of the country recorded lower prices in 2023 than in previous years. This is evident in the relative decrease in revenue compared to the increase in volume. The south's average price fell by 4.55% YoY, the central-west by nearly 1% YoY, the southeast by 2.2% YoY, and the northeast by a significant 21.19% YoY. Despite Paraná's 11% YoY growth in exports, its foreign exchange revenue remained nearly unchanged from the previous year, increasing by less than 0.3% YoY.

The Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) reports that Brazil's chicken export price experienced a notable rebound to an average of USD 1,824.8 per metric ton (mt) in Sep-23, a significant 8% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This recovery comes after a 15% drop in Aug-23 compared to Jul-23. Interestingly, the price of whole chickens exceeded that of chicken cuts, a trend that has persisted for over a year with only a brief interruption between Apr-23 and May-23. In contrast, chicken cuts saw a monthly decrease of 5% in Sep-23, resulting in a value of 4% lower than whole chicken prices during the period. This decline marked the lowest average price for chicken cuts in over a year and a half, resembling price levels from Feb-22 to Mar-22. Chicken cuts have maintained an average price of nearly USD 1,930/mt since Sep-21, slightly over 4% higher than whole chicken, which averaged USD 1,853.20/mt. While this recent index could be seen as relatively low, it still remains below the 10-year average. This shows that the price of chicken cuts usually surpasses that of whole chickens on the global market by approximately 10.12%.

Secex reports that Brazilian poultry meat and its edible offal exports continued to increase in volume shipped compared to revenue collected in the first 14 working days in Oct-23. Safras and Mercado noted concerns regarding China's reduced purchases, which could potentially disrupt the domestic market balance, particularly considering the low prices in the poultry sector. So far in Oct-23, chicken meat exports reached 252.38 thousand mt, valued at USD 451.73 million, accounting for 69.57% of the total volume and 60.17% of the total revenue achieved in Oct-22. The average daily revenue was USD 32.27 million in the period, a decrease of 13.8% week-on-week (WoW) and an 18.3% drop compared to Oct-22. The daily average volume reached 18.03 thousand mt, a decline of 13.86% WoW and a 5.6% drop compared to Oct-22. The price per ton stood at USD 1,789.85, a slight 0.14% WoW decrease and 13.5% lower than in Oct-22.

Lastly, Russia has commenced importing poultry meat from Belarus and Kazakhstan to stabilize market prices, aiming to address concerns over rising poultry prices. The decision to import poultry from these neighboring countries was made to maintain price stability. Despite a slight decrease in Russia's poultry meat production in Aug-23, the figures for the Jan-23 to Aug-23 period remained higher than the previous year. The cost of poultry meat in Russia has surged by 28.47% since the beginning of 2023, primarily due to a shortage of personnel in the industry, increased demand, and the challenges posed by avian influenza. While chilled poultry meat production fell by 1.8% MoM and 4.1% YoY in Sep-23, production over the first nine months of the year increased by 0.7% YoY to 2.6 mmt. Experts are optimistic that these efforts will lead to a decline in poultry meat prices in the near future.

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