1. Weekly News

Global

Global Coffee Exports Rise Sharply in Sep-24, Driven by South America and Brazil

In Sep-24, global exports of green coffee beans reached 9.69 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, marking a 25.2% increase year-on-year (YoY). Brazilian natural coffee exports grew by 37.3% to 3.68 million bags, while Robusta exports rose by 15.4% to 3.1 million bags. Colombian mild coffee exports increased by 22.3% to 0.99 million bags, with other milds up by 22.9% to 1.92 million bags. Regional growth was led by South America, with exports up 30.8% to 6.2 million bags, followed by Asia and Oceania (up 19.6% to 2.29 million), Africa (up 14.3% to 1.37 million), and Mexico and Central America (up 18.1% to 0.9 million).

Cornell and WCR Launch Global Coffee Resilience Program

Cornell University and World Coffee Research (WCR) have launched the Coffee Improvement Program, a five-year, United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded initiative to boost global climate resilience and productivity among small coffee farmers. With more than USD 5 million in funding, the program will focus on accelerating coffee genetic research to combat threats like coffee leaf rust and anthracnose. This effort aims to support the 12 million small-scale coffee producers contributing 60% of the global coffee supply, ensuring economic stability amid climate challenges. The collaboration seeks to create next-generation coffee varieties, enhancing sustainability across local economies and international supply chains.

Brazil

Significant Growth in Unroasted and Roasted Coffee Exports in Brazil in Oct-24

In Oct-24, Brazil's unroasted coffee exports generated USD 1.307 billion, marking a 62.7% YoY growth from Oct-23's USD 803.545 million, with daily revenue reaching USD 59.436 million. Export volume rose to 279,261 tons, up from 249,375 tons in the previous year, while daily average exports climbed by 12% to 12,693 tons. The average product value increased 45.3% to USD 4.682 million, compared to USD 3.222 million last year. Roasted coffee, extracts, and concentrates also grew, with Oct-24 export volume rising by 12.5% YoY to 8.681 million tons and the average price rising by 25% to USD 10.273 million. Total earnings from these exports reached USD 89.194 million, a 40.6% increase in daily revenue compared to Oct-23.

China

China’s Coffee Import Market Sees Rapid Growth and Expanding Global Connections

The "2024 China Imported Coffee Industry Report," launched at the Imported Food Industry Summit on November 7, highlights China's booming coffee import market, which grew from USD 6.58 million in 1995 to over USD 1.1 billion in 2023. Jointly compiled by the Kunshan Economic Development Zone and the China Food, Native Produce, and Animal Products Chamber of Commerce, the report outlines trends and collaborative opportunities for sustainable development within China's coffee sector. Notably, coffee import sources have diversified from 31 countries in 1995 to 75 in 2024, with Shanghai and Jiangsu Province leading in import volume. The report underscores coffee's rising cultural and economic significance in China's evolving food market.

Colombia

Colombian Coffee Production and Exports Surge in Oct-24 Attributed to Favorable Weather

According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC), Colombia's coffee production rose by 16% YoY in Oct-24, reaching 1.33 million 60-kg bags, driven by favorable weather. This marks an increase from 1.15 million bags from Oct-23 and 1.07 million bags from Sep-24. Coffee exports also grew by 15% YoY in Oct-24, totaling 1.04 million bags. So far, in 2024, production has climbed by 18% to 10.4 million bags, with exports up 17% to 9.83 million bags. Colombia, the third-largest coffee producer globally, may end 2024 with an estimated 13 million bags, following a 2% production increase in 2023 to 11.3 million bags.

Colombian Coffee Flourishes with Record Production and Strong Growth in Chinese Market

Colombia's coffee sector is seeing a solid year, with the FNC projecting a 2024 harvest of 13 million 60-kg bags, up 15% from last year's 11.3 million bags. Favorable weather following La Niña has boosted productivity. Meanwhile, China has rapidly emerged as a critical market for Colombian coffee, ranking second in the first quarter of 2024, behind only the US. This growth is attributed to China's expanding coffee culture, supported by major coffee chains and e-commerce platforms, positioning Colombia well for future gains in the market.

European Union

EU Coffee Stocks Recover Amid Rising Imports but Remain Below Historical Levels

European Union (EU) coffee stocks saw a notable recovery, reaching 8.85 million bags in Aug-24, following low levels early in the year, driven by increased imports from Central America, East Africa, and Brazil. However, stocks remain below 2023 and historical averages. The import boost stems from supply concerns and the expected implementation of the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Brazilian imports increased as Robusta supplies from other regions tightened. While a potential EUDR delay might soften demand, fourth-quarter import volumes will likely remain high, supporting stock recovery. Meanwhile, robust EU coffee consumption and potential seasonal demand during the winter may limit stock growth.

Russia

Russia’s Coffee Imports from Brazil Surge to Record Levels in October

In Oct-24, Russia's coffee imports from Brazil hit a record high, doubling from Sep-24 to reach USD 58 million. Russian imports amounted to 12,200 tons of coffee beans, marking a threefold volume increase and nearly a fivefold value increase compared to last year. This spike propelled Russia from the tenth to the sixth largest buyer of Brazilian coffee, following top importers like Germany, the US, Belgium, Italy, and Japan. In the first ten months of 2024, Russia's coffee imports from Brazil totaled USD 212 million, twice that of the same period in 2023.

Peru

Peru’s Coffee Production Grows 9.8% in August Due to Favorable Climate

In Aug-24, Peru's coffee production rose by 9.8% YoY to 33,843 tons, driven by favorable thermal conditions that supported crop development, benefiting agroindustry and exports, according to National Institute of Statistics and Information of Peru’s (INEI) report. The central producing regions were San Martín with an increase of 140.5%, Amazonas with 11%, and Cajamarca with 1.6%, collectively contributing 60.6% of national output. Notable increases were also seen in Pasco with 251.7%, Lambayeque with 69.3%, and Puno with 46.2%, while production fell in regions like Ayacucho by 90.4% and Ucayali by 64%.

Peru's Coffee Exports Surge in Sep-24 Due to High Global Prices

In Sep-24, Peru exported 39,427 tons of coffee valued at USD 181 million, marking a 21% increase in volume and a 44% rise YoY. The average international price of Peruvian coffee reached USD 4.60/kg, driven by limited supply from other major producers. The United States (US) remained Peru's top market, purchasing 11,573 tons valued at USD 55 million. Germany and Belgium followed, and the Netherlands paid the highest price, at USD 5.06/kg.

Peru Launches Guide for Coffee and Cocoa Exporters Targeting Swiss Market

At the Ficafé Tingo María 2024 event, Peru's Ministry of Agricultural Development and Irrigation (Midagri) and the Swiss Import Promotion Programme (SIPPO) introduced the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) Internationalization Guide for Coffee and Cocoa. This guide offers Peruvian producers, cooperatives, and associations a strategic roadmap for entering and competing in the Swiss market by leveraging the Free Trade Agreement with EFTA countries—Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. The guide covers compliance with high standards in quality, sustainability, and traceability, including certifications like Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance. It also addresses adapting to sustainability regulations, which is crucial for maintaining access and avoiding customs rejections.

Uganda

Uganda’s Coffee Sector Faces Uncertainty Amid Plan to Dissolve UCDA

Uganda's coffee industry is critical as the government plans to dissolve the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) under the RAPEX initiative to streamline state agencies and cut costs. While officials argue this merger will increase efficiency and support value addition, stakeholders fear it could destabilize the coffee sector, a significant source of national income. The UCDA has played a vital role in certifying coffee quality, setting prices, and promoting Ugandan coffee internationally – functions that critics doubt the Ministry of Agriculture can replicate effectively. Now awaiting presidential approval, the proposal faces opposition from farmers and lawmakers concerned about reduced earnings and weakened market protections for Uganda's coffee.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s Coffee Exports Drop 11.2% Cause by Supply Challenges

Vietnam exported 1.15 million metric tons (mmt) of coffee in the first ten months of 2024, marking an 11.2% decrease from the same period in 2023 due to climate-related supply issues. This bolstered Brazilian exports of Robusta coffee. Despite the volume drop, Vietnam's coffee export revenue surged by 39% to USD 4.6 billion, reflecting higher global coffee prices. In Oct-24, exports reached 44 thousand metric tons (mt), a slight 1.5% YoY increase.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W45 2023 to W45 2024)

Brazil

In W45, Brazil’s coffee prices saw a decline of 2.11% week-on-week (WoW) and 5.53% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 6.49/kg, which can be attributed to a short-term correction following a period of strong export growth. Increased rainfall boosting Brazilian supply, along with higher global supply and stable domestic factors, led to the short-term price drop. However, Brazil's coffee prices still saw a 9.26% YoY increase, reflecting the continued strength of the coffee export market, with Brazil's unroasted coffee exports showing impressive growth, up 62.7% YoY in Oct-24. The increase in both export volume and value, especially from major markets such as Russia, indicates that demand for Brazilian coffee remains strong, supporting the price growth despite the recent short-term fluctuations. The combination of higher export earnings, increased daily exports, and strong global demand suggest that prices will likely remain elevated in the long term.

Colombia

In W45, Colombia's coffee prices adjusted with a 1.38% increase WoW and a 0.54% decrease MoM. These changes are primarily due to price corrections following recent market conditions, which have been influenced by a significant surge in global coffee exports and fluctuating demand levels. The price adjustments reflect the ongoing stabilization efforts in response to these shifts. However, the YoY price showed a 7.18% drop. This decline can be attributed to several factors, including increased competition from Brazil, which has seen a substantial rise in its coffee exports. Additionally, while Colombian coffee production and exports have grown, boosted by favorable weather and increased global demand, the oversupply of coffee from other major producers has exerted downward pressure on prices. The YoY decrease reflects this broader market trend, with Colombian coffee facing intensified price competition on the global stage despite strong production and export gains.

Vietnam

In W45, Vietnam's coffee prices remained stable WoW at USD 4.25/kg. This stability reflects a balanced market following recent fluctuations. However, MoM prices saw a notable 6.39% drop, attributed primarily to supply challenges impacting Vietnam’s coffee exports that dropped by 11.2% in the first ten months of 2024. Also, the drop in prices can also be linked to growing concerns over an impending coffee surplus, driven by increased production in Vietnam and other coffee-growing regions. With higher prices in the past year incentivizing farmers to expand cultivation and improve yields, market expectations suggest that the growing supply could put further downward pressure on prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Leverage Coffee Resilience Initiatives for Sustainable Growth

With the launch of the Coffee Improvement Program by Cornell and WCR, companies can participate in this initiative, especially in Colombia, Peru, and Brazil, to support climate resilience. Businesses can enhance their brand reputation by participating in coffee genetic research and sustainability practices while ensuring a stable long-term supply. This program could open opportunities for higher-quality products that meet the increasing demand for sustainable coffee in the EU and US markets, where consumer preference for ethical sourcing is growing.

Strengthen Value-Added Products in Russia and Africa

Russia’s coffee imports from Brazil have surged, creating an opportunity for companies to focus on value-added products, such as roasted and ground coffee, in this market. By tapping into the growing middle class in Russia, companies can create branded, high-quality coffee offerings that align with local tastes. Additionally, exploring value-added opportunities in African markets, particularly as exports from Ethiopia and Uganda increase, can open doors to new markets with rising coffee consumption.

Sources: Tridge, Agraria PE, Agro Peru, All Africa, Cafe Point, Daily Coffee News, EFE Agro, El Colombiano, Food Mate, Noticias Agricolas, Portal do Agronegocio, RGRU, Viet Stock