W5 Maize (Corn) Update: Brazil's Exports Decline, Indonesian Farmers Navigate Price Surges and Fertilizer Subsidy Concerns, Pakistan's Record-Breaking Exports, South Africa's Second-Largest Harvest, and China's Anticipated Production Surge

Brazilian Corn Exports in Jan-24 Witness a 74.86% YoY Decline

In Jan-24, Brazil witnessed a significant decrease in unground corn exports, plummeting to 4.5 million tons, a 74.86% year-on-year (YoY) drop compared to the same period in 2023. The National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) expects a continued decline in corn exports throughout 2024. The daily average of shipments also experienced a 13.3% YoY decrease. Financially, the revenues for Jan-24 amounted to USD 1.075 billion, reflecting a 29.4% YoY drop in the daily average. Additionally, the average price per ton recorded an 18.6% YoY decline.

Argentina's 2023/24 Corn Harvest Sowing Nears Completion with Remarkable Recovery and Projected Production Surge

Argentina has nearly completed the 2023/24 harvest corn sowing, covering 97.2% of the estimated 7.2 million hectares (ha). This marks a 3.1% point increase from the previous year. The crop conditions have significantly improved, with 41% of areas classified as excellent and 53% in normal conditions. This represents a noteworthy recovery from the 2022/23 harvest, adversely affected by the La Niña phenomenon. The Cereals Exchange anticipates a substantial 66.18% increase in corn production, projecting 56.5 million tons in the current cycle.

Soaring Corn Prices and Fertilizer Subsidy Concerns Impact on Indonesian Farmers

As corn prices surge, Indonesian farmers are grappling with difficulties, experiencing a substantial 73.02% increase to USD 104.18 per kilogram (INR 8,651/kg). A presidential candidate of Indonesia has highlighted this issue and expressed concern about reducing fertilizer subsidies, seeing it as a potential threat to national food security. Despite the government's attempts to offer subsidized fertilizers through PT Pupuk Indonesia (Persero), numerous farmers are still unable to avail themselves of this support.

Kyrgyzstan Aims for Export Growth Through Cluster Corn Production

Kyrgyzstan's Ministry of Agriculture is prioritizing the advancement of cluster corn production to enhance production metrics and broaden the export potential of corn. The nation's corn production is increasing, boasting a total volume of 150 million ha and a yield ranging from 60 to 70 centners per ha.

USDA Forecasts Record Corn Exports for Pakistan in the 2023/24 Season

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast, Pakistan is projected to achieve a historic peak in corn exports, reaching 1.5 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2023/24 season. This upswing is credited to an excess yield from a prosperous harvest and reduced domestic demand. The primary export destinations include Vietnam, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka, where the rupee devaluation facilitates competitive pricing. However, an export slowdown is expected due to the completion of exporting the majority of the high-quality and low-moisture spring crop.

USDA Lowered South Africa's Corn Export Projections for the 2023/24 Season Amidst Challenges

The USDA has revised South Africa's corn export estimate downwards by 12% for the ongoing marketing year (MY) to 3 mmt and by 5% for the following year to 3.8 mmt. This reduction is attributed to competition from Northern Hemisphere countries, heightened local soybean exports, and challenges related to infrastructure and capacity at South African ports. Despite these factors, South Africa achieved its second-largest corn harvest in the 2022/23 season, yielding 17.1 million tons.

USDA Expects 4.2% Surge in China's 2023/24 Corn Production

The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports a 4.2% increase in China's 2023/24 corn production estimate, reaching 288.8 mmt. This growth is attributed to expanded planting areas and increased rainfall. The corn feed and residual use forecast is 223 mmt, while corn imports are expected to be 20 mmt, reflecting a 3 mmt reduction from the previous estimate.