W51 Orange Update: EU Expects 47.5% Increase in Orange Exports, Global Orange Prices Surge, and Egypt Forecasts 2 Million Tons

USDA Report Forecasts 47.5% Increase in EU Orange Exports in MY 2023/24

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) published its European Union (EU) Citrus Annual Report. Drought, water irrigation limitations, and high temperatures limited the EU’s production potential for marketing year (MY) 2023/24. Orange exports are expected to increase by 47.5% year-over-year (YoY) to 180 thousand mt. The United Kingdom (UK), Switzerland, and Norway are top export markets.

High Orange Prices Driven by Production Declines in Spain, Florida, and Brazil

The average price of oranges and mandarins remains high due to the decline in Spanish orange production and juice orange harvest in Florida and Brazil due to the Huanglongbing (HLB) disease or citrus greening. The price of industrial oranges has increased since the Egyptian orange campaign began. The campaign has seen a significant increase in exports to the EU due to good weather and water availability, resulting in good yield and fruit quality. This, along with an increase in its surface area and lower prices than national ones, positions it as a natural competitor in the European and international markets.

Egyptian Citrus Producers Face Crisis as Red Sea Container Lines Suspended Due to Houthi Attacks

The suspension of container lines along the Red Sea and Suez Canal due to Yemeni Houthis terrorist attacks has led to a crisis for Egyptian citrus producers, forcing them to suspend orange harvesting. Egypt, the third largest exporter of fresh oranges, faces a shortage in Southeast Asia, with Spain increasing shipments and Egypt supplying more to EU and Eastern European countries.

Egyptian Orange Exports Expected to Reach 2 Million Tons in 2023/24 Season

Egyptian orange exports are expected to reach 2 million tons in the 2023/24 season, an increase from 1.6 million tons in 2022/23. This growth is attributed to higher yields per hectare (ha), favorable growing conditions, and successful market openings. The top ten export destinations are the Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Spain, Bangladesh, Syria, China, and the United Kingdom. The orange harvest is expected to increase by 2.7% to 3.7 million tons, attributed to optimal weather conditions and a focus on clean fruit production.

South African Oranges Expected to Decline Slightly Amidst Challenges in Citrus Industry

South Africa's oranges are expected to decline slightly due to reduced planted area. Despite high demand, the citrus industry faces challenges like inefficient port operations, deteriorating transportation infrastructure, and pest and disease concerns.

Brazilian Orange Prices Surge Due to Supply Scarcity

Brazilian orange prices continue to trend upwards in the table market, driven by the scarcity of supply and the attractive prices offered by the industry. According to Cepea researchers, in W51,the pear variety reached an average of USD 13.90 per 40.8-kilogram (kg) box (BRL 67.20/40.8 kg box) harvested, an increase of 3% week-on-week (WoW). Among the late varieties, the native variety had an even more significant appreciation, reaching 6.6%, with an average price of USD 13.05/40.8 kg box (BRL 63.05/40.8 kg box).

Mexico Expects a 3% YoY Increase in Orange Production in 2023

Mexico's National Service for Agri-Food Health, Safety, and Quality has provided an update on citrus production in the country. Orange production accounted for 4.8 million metric tons (mt), with an expected 3% YoY increase in 2023. The report emphasizes collaborative efforts between the government and producers to address phytosanitary issues, including managing and mitigating HLB.