W6: Weekly Poultry & Egg Update
Chicken
Global: World Meat Production (Feb 6)
In 2023, the global production of broiler chickens may reach 102.9M MT, 1.8% more than in 2022. Among the world's largest producers, the increase in the production of broiler chickens is expected, among others, in Brazil by 3.5% to 14.7M MT, USA by 1.3% to 21.3M MT, EU by 0.5% to 11M MT, Mexico by 3% to 4.1M MT and Thailand by 3.9% to 3.4M MT. In China, production is likely to remain at the 2022 level at 14.3M MT.
Global: The Meat Contractions Continue, FAO Says (Feb 6)
During the first month of the year, the international prices of meat products recorded their seventh consecutive YoY contraction, being slightly lower by 0.1% compared to the December records. The decrease in poultry meat prices was due to a high availability of supplies for export, which exceeded consumption rates despite the ravages caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in different countries.
Global: Bird Flu Worsens, Wiping Out 100M Poultry in Four Months (Feb 9)
The global bird flu outbreak is worsening, highlighting the challenge farmers and officials face in reining in the deadly virus. Just over 100M poultry died or were culled due to avian influenza between the start of October and Feb 3, according to the World Organization for Animal Health. That’s more than triple the number in the same period in the previous season, which ended with record losses from the disease. Farms across Europe and North America have suffered severe outbreaks, and cases are also picking up in South America, including in Bolivia, which borders major chicken producer Brazil. Egg-laying hens have been among the hardest hit, boosting prices of the grocery staple and further squeezing consumers. There have also recently been signs of the virus adapting to different animal species, including minks in Spain, sparking questions of whether the outbreak could spread to humans.
US: USDA Trims 2023 Broiler Production Outlooks in the US (Feb 8)
The USDA lowered 2023 pork and broiler production estimates while raising beef and leaving turkey unchanged. Broilers are seen at 46.7B pounds, a decline of 200M due to hatchery and slaughter data, with an average price of USD 1.265/pound, USD 0.02 lower, and drops for consumption and imports against steady exports. Turkey is projected at 5.56B pounds, unchanged on the month, with an average price of USD 1.62/pound, up USD 0.02, with steady imports, slower exports, and higher consumption.
US: A 1.22% Decrease in Chicken Meat Exports in 2022 (Feb 9)
The final (but still incomplete) data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicate that in 2022 the North American poultry industry exported just over 3.3M chicken meat, a volume that represented a decrease of 1.22% over the 3.341M MT of 2021. The result would have been positive if, as occurred in the previous year, exports in the second half had increased close to 3% in relation to the first half of the year. But, everything indicates, the registration of cases of Avian Influenza in North American territory, even without affecting the production of chicken meat, affected exports. As a result, the result for the second half of 2022 was 2.5% below what was recorded in the same period of 2021. The curious thing, in this case, is that the volume indicated by the USDA for the period, just over 1.650M MT, was, with a minimal difference, the same registered in the first half of the year, with an increase of only 0.25% (close to 418MT).
After two decades, the highly pathogenic (when almost all infected animals show symptoms of the disease) avian flu has become a real threat to Brazilian flocks and production. Nine countries in Central and South America have confirmed 75 outbreaks of the disease in recent months and have already had to sacrifice 1.2M birds. According to Valor Economico, the country's main financial daily, the entry of the virus into the country could affect Brazilian chicken exports, which in 2022 reached a record 4.8M MT, reflecting USD 9.7B, partly favored by the impact of influenza in the Northern Hemisphere and by the interruption of sales in countries affected by the disease. The notification of a case in Cochabamba, Bolivia, last weekend in W5, caused an uproar in Brazil, as it means that the virus has crossed the Andes Mountains, which is considered a natural barrier. Until then, the disease had only reached the southern half of the continent in migratory birds concentrated on the Pacific route.
Brazil: Chicken Meat Exports Grew by 20.6% (Feb 8)
Brazilian chicken meat exports (considering all products, between fresh and processed) totaled 420.9K MT in January, according to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA). The volume is a record and exceeds by 20.6% the total shipped in the first month of last year, with 349.1K MT. The result in dollars from exports in January reached USD 856.6M, an amount 38.9% higher than that obtained in the same period of 2022, with USD 616.9M. The main destination for chicken meat exports from Brazil, China imported 60.2K MT in January, a volume 24.7% greater than that registered in the same period last year, with 48.3K MT. Other highlights were Japan, with 37.7K MT (+23.1%), Saudi Arabia, with 32.4K MT (+111.3%), South Africa, with 29.5K MT (+15 .7%), and the European Union, with 21.8K MT (+20.4%).
Brazil: At the Forefront in the Development of Cultivated Meat (Feb 10)
Embrapa Swine and Poultry (SC) is at the forefront of a pioneering study in Brazil to develop chicken meat grown under controlled laboratory conditions. The new product, which resembles sassami, in the form of prototypes of boneless chicken breast fillets, should be ready for nutritional and sensory analysis by the end of 2023. Also characterized as an alternative protein, the technology recreates animal tissues in the laboratory from animal cells, providing meat analogous to natural ones. It is an innovation that meets current trends in consumption and value addition. The project was approved by an international competitive notice from The Good Food Institute (GFI), a non-governmental organization that acts in fundraising and finances global projects. Among the 22 projects selected in 2021, five are Brazilian, among them Embrapa Swine and Poultry.
Poland: Polish Meat Market (Feb 8)
Purchase prices of live poultry in W3 of January 2023, the purchase prices of broiler chickens decreased, for which suppliers obtained USD 1.26/kg (PLN 5.63), which is 1% less than a week and a month ago. At the same time, the price of this livestock was 25.5% higher than a year ago. Meat plants sold carcasses of gutted chickens at USD 1.72/kg (PLN 7.65), which is 2% cheaper than a week earlier, but 10.5% more expensive than a month ago. Compared to the prices obtained a year ago, chicken carcasses were more expensive by 7.5%.
Thailand: Ranking No. 1 in Exports in Asia; FTA Drives Export Growth of 15.9% (Feb 12)
Mr. Sinit Lertkrai, Deputy Minister of Commerce, revealed that he had been assigned to the Department of Trade Negotiations. Following up on the Thai export situation, it was found that chicken meat and other products are outstanding products with potential for both production and export. At present, Thailand ranks as the No. 1 exporter in Asia and No. 3 in the world after Brazil and the United States. In 2022, Thailand exported chicken meat and products to the world market totaling to a value of up to USD 4.074B, an increase of 25% compared to the same period of the previous year. It was exported to markets in which Thailand has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), worth USD 2.871B, a 15.9% increase, accounting for 70% of all chicken meat and chicken exports. This include Japan amounting to USD 1.882B (+10.2%), China to USD 382.5M (+15.1%), Malaysia to USD 165.4M (+83.4%), Singapore to USD 127.4M (+37.6%), South Korea to USD 183.1M (+40%) and Cambodian USD 17.8M (+20.3%).
Russia: For 11 Months of 2022 Increased the Export of Poultry Meat by 19% (Feb 8)
For 11 months of 2022, Russia exported 323.3K MT of poultry meat, which is 19% more than in the corresponding period of the previous year, according to the presentation of the National Poultry Union at the Interregional Agro-Industrial Conference. Moreover, the share of poultry meat accounted for a significant part of the total supply of Russian meat abroad. Their volume amounted to 499.6K MT (5% more).
Egypt: A Decrease in Poultry Prices (Feb 7)
The prices of poultry decreased by about USD 0.098 (3 pounds) on Feb 7 in the local market, according to the head of the Poultry Wealth Division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce, Abdulaziz Al-Sayed. White poultry prices fell to range between USD 2.46 and USD 2.52/kg (75 and 77 pounds) per consumer, depending on the region. The volume of investments of poultry farms operating in the Egyptian market is about USD 2.95B (90B pounds), and more than 2.5M workers work in the sector.
Ukraine: Earning Higher Revenue From Poultry Exports (Feb 8)
Last year, Ukrainian poultry exports totaled USD 852.9M, which is 18.6% higher than in 2021, the Ukrainian Customs Service estimated. In physical terms, Ukraine sold 413K MT to foreign customers, which is 10.3% down compared with the previous year. The key sales markets for Ukrainian poultry farmers were the Netherlands (29.6%), Saudi Arabia (25.8%) and Slovakia (7.6%). Higher revenue was primarily secured by a rise in global broiler meat prices. In 2022, poultry prices rose by nearly 10% on the domestic market, while export prices climbed by almost a third against 2021. On the other hand, Ukrainian poultry farmers continued to suffer from power outages. Sergiy Karpenko, executive director of the union of poultry farmers, told local publication, Zerkalo Nedeli, that the nearly constant electricity shortage in the common energy grid has had a negative impact on operations and drove prices up.
Paraguay: Shipments of Poultry Products Increased in January (Feb 8)
In the first month of 2023, exports of poultry products registered an increase of 119% in volume and 317% in income, compared to the same period in 2022, according to data analyzed from the National Animal Health and Quality Service (Senacsa). As of January 31, 2023, Paraguay exported 919 MT of poultry products to 11 markets. This figure meant an increase of 500MT (119%), compared to the 419 MT shipped in the first month of the previous year. At the value level, in January the income from shipments of poultry products increased 317%, since USD 830.88K were generated, that is, USD 631.82K more than the same period of 2022, considering that the amount sent generated USD 199.06K. According to data from Senacsa, up to January 31.47K MT of chicken meat were shipped for USD 670.90K, and 448MT of poultry offal worth USD 159.98K.
Mexico: Chicken Exports Fell 28.1% (Feb 6)
The preliminary result for 2022 shows that chicken exports fell 28.1%, reaching 3.41K MT, while the price registered an increase of 1.3%. Imports decreased by 2%, reaching 895.85K MT impacted by a 14.2% rise in the price, which meant that the value of purchases increased 11.9%.
Fernando Mattos, Minister of Livestock of Uruguay, has visited with the ambassador of the People's Republic of China in Uruguay, Wang Gang, several plants dedicated to the production of feed, poultry and chicken meat in the area of Canelones and Montevideo. The objective is to advance in the efforts to ensure that Uruguay can export poultry meat to the Chinese market. The first point of the tour was a visit to Granja Tres Arroyos, a poultry firm that has various authorizations to export to foreign markets.
Chile: Poultry Production Increases in the Last Quarter of 2022 (Feb 6)
Chicken registered a production of 177.22K MT during October- December 2022, which implied a positive inter-annual variation of 2.3% . Regarding the benefit, there were 74.37M broilers, which represented a growth of 1% in twelve months.
The Chilean Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) reported on Feb 8 that it "timely controlled a positive case of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in backyard birds in the Chañaral de Aceituno area, Atacama Region." “This is the first discovery of the disease in domestic birds corresponding to a self-consumption backyard chicken coop. This finding does not change the national health condition, maintaining the country's status free of avian influenza”, emphasized the neighboring country's health service. A few days ago, Bolivia was the other border country with Argentina that declared outbreaks of the dangerous AI.
Turkey
Germany: Meat Production Down 8.1% In 2022 (Feb 8)
The amount of poultry meat produced fell by 2.9% in 2022 compared to 2021 to just over 1.5M MT. The main reason for the decline is the 8.0% drop in production of turkey meat (turkey meat) to 0.4M MT. In contrast, the production of young broiler chicken meat fell by only 0.6% to 1.1 M MT.
Spain: Thousands of Birds to Be Slaughtered in Catalonia After a Possible Case of Bird Flu on a Farm (Feb 10)
Spanish Catalan authorities are investigating a possible case of H5N1 bird flu at a turkey farm in the province of Lleida. This was reported on Feb 3 by the newspaper "Vanguardia". According to her, the farm is located in the village of Arbeka. Local authorities are forced to implement a protocol requiring preventive measures, in particular, thousands of birds will be slaughtered on farms within a radius of 3 km from the one where the suspected case was discovered. Soon the Ministry of Health of Spain should publish the final results of the tests. The last case of H5N1 was detected in Catalonia on a farm in the province of Girona in 2017. As World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Feb 8, the recent sharp increase in the spread of H5N1 avian influenza in mammals requires careful monitoring.
Poland: Polish Meat Market (Feb 8)
Turkeys were bought at USD 2.05/kg (PLN 9.14) compared to USD 2.06/kg (PLN 9.17) in the previous week and USD 2.06/kg (PLN 9.19) the month before. Compared to the prices obtained a year ago, the price of turkeys increased by 43%. The price of turkey carcasses amounted to USD 3.45/kg (PLN 15.39) and was 1% lower than a week ago and 5% lower than a month ago.
Chile: Poultry Production Increases in the Last Quarter of 2022 (Feb 6)
Turkeys registered a production of 18.87K MT, with an increase of 3.5% compared to twelve months, while the benefit amounted to 1.24M units, increasing by 2.5% YoY.
Duck
Poland: Polish Meat Market (Feb 8)
Broiler duck prices have been relatively stable since mid-December 2022. In the W3 of January for livestock, the suppliers were paid USD 1.72/kg (PLN 7.68), similarly to the week and month before. Compared to the same period in 2022, ducks were 27% more expensive.
Egg
US: Egg Shortage in the United States Since W3-W4 (Feb 7)
In the United States, the first signals of egg shortages started in W3-W4. The shortage is caused by the downfall of egg production due to avian flu, and the rise of production costs in the industry caused the illegal importation of products from Mexico to the US border to hit a new record. In W5, according to US Customs and Border Protection, the confiscation of all packing presentations in the borders like San Diego increased by 300% in January 2023. Prices are forecasted to keep rising for the upcoming weeks.
US: Chicken Farmers Say Their Eggs Could Help Reduce Prices (Feb 10)
US chicken producers want to do their part to bring down current soaring egg prices by selling their 400M surplus eggs to food producers. But first they have to convince the FDA to change the rule that prevents eggs laid by chickens in the meat industry to be used for human consumption. Egg prices have surged over the past year due to the ongoing bird flu outbreak and the highest inflation in decades, prompting calls for a price-gouging investigation.
India: Egg Exports Surge to Fill Malaysia’s Acute Shortage (Feb 7)
It is anticipated that India is exporting a record number of eggs to Malaysia where there have been ‘acute shortages’ as soaring feed prices has resulted in many farmers to cut output. Malaysia’s Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security agreed to temporarily allow the import of chicken eggs from foreign countries, adding that the decision will be reviewed when the domestic supply stabilizes. While Middle Eastern countries such as Oman and Qatar are the main destinations for India’s eggs, the export landscape over recent months has changed with significant orders from countries where output has plummeted, including Malaysia, which previously exported eggs. Following the imports of eggs from foreign countries, the eggs shortage in Malaysia was reduced to 1M in December, according to the country’s Agriculture and Food Security Minister, Mohamad Sabu, CNA reported. This compares to a shortage of 157M eggs in October and 118M eggs in November.
Russia: Rosselkhoznadzor Banned the Supply of Hatching Eggs to Russia by Three Turkish Enterprises (Feb 8)
The Rosselkhoznadzor reported that from January 16 to January 23, 2023, they conducted a video inspection of six Turkish enterprises that produce and supply chicken hatching eggs to the Russian market. Based on its results, temporary restrictions were imposed on three enterprises. Rosselkhoznadzor reported that suppliers concealed reliable information about the timing of production, the age category of poultry, as well as the formation of export lots during the period of absence of production activity. Experts also found a discrepancy between the actual capacity of enterprises and the volume of export lots. Rosselkhoznadzor retained the right of the other three enterprises to supply hatching eggs to the Russian Federation.
Hungary: Egg Market Report (Feb 10)
In Hungary, the packing point price of table eggs from cages (M+L) was USD 0.19 (HUF 66.88) at the end of January, which was 114% higher than the average price of the same period last year. The packing point price of deep-laid table eggs (M+L) was USD 0.21 (HUF 74.73), which indicates an increase of 116.4 percent%. The domestic price increase of eggs significantly exceeds the European Union average, which was 72.2% last year.
Ukraine: In the Spring, There Will Be a Noticeable Change in the Prices of Eggs (Feb 12)
In Ukraine, prices for chicken eggs may drop by 10-15% already in February-March of this year. An even greater price reduction for eggs is expected after Easter, 35-40%, said Svitlana Lytvyn, an analyst at the UKAB. The population of laying hens is gradually recovering, so the price of eggs may decrease in the next two months. A more significant price drop will be observed after Easter, which will be at the beginning of April this year. Then two factors will work at once: an increase in supply from households due to warmer weather, as well as a decrease in population demand after the Easter holidays. Therefore, in that period, you can expect a price 35-40% lower than the current price, Lytvyn said.
Philippines: Egg Production Dip Incentivizes Philippines’ Broiler Producers (Feb 9)
While a decrease in egg production has resulted from challenges of avian influenza in the Philippines, it is expected that chicken meat will pick up the slack as an alternative less expensive protein for the country’s growing economy. Due to a growing economy, the USDA forecasts that chicken meat consumption in 2023 at 1.835M MT compared to 1.755M MT in 2022 and 1.780M MT in 2021. Even with this slight increase in consumption expected, poultry integrators and commercial raisers in the Philippines are wary of rolling out significant expansion plans this year because of the threat of avian influenza and the high cost of feed ingredients. Nevertheless, chicken meat production in 2023 is forecasted to be 1.36M MT (compared to 1.3M MT in 2022). It is also worth noting that chicken prices have been increasing since August 2022, which is offset by high production cost for producers and putting a strain on their operations. Meanwhile, a decline in egg production is anticipated, but it is expected that this will incentivize broiler producers to increase production since broiler meat is an alternative source of less expensive protein.
