1. Weekly News

Global

Southern Hemisphere Apple Production and Exports Expected to Rise in 2025

The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) projects Southern Hemisphere apple production to rise by 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025, reaching 4.75 million tons. South Africa remains the top producer at 1.47 million tons (+3.4% YoY). It is followed by Brazil with 950 thousand tons (+14.2%) and Chile with 920 thousand tons (+0.7%). New Zealand produced 544 thousand tons (+5.6%), while Argentina reached 537 thousand tons (+5.8%). Australia recorded 319 thousand tons (+5.5%). Gala continues to dominate as the leading variety, accounting for 1.56 million tons. Apple exports are also expected to increase by 5.3% YoY to 1.65 million tons, driven by higher shipments from South Africa (+5.5%), Chile (+1%), New Zealand (+9.7%), Argentina (+8.2%), and Brazil (+14.6%).

India

Dry Spell Threatens Apple Production in India

Apple growers in Shimla are facing reduced yields due to a prolonged dry spell and insufficient chilling hours, which are crucial for fruit development. Traditional varieties require 1.1 thousand to 1.6 thousand hours below 7°C, while early varieties need 600 hours—both of which have fallen short this season. A 41% rainfall deficit from October to December, combined with warmer temperatures, has triggered early sprouting in lower hills, further threatening yields. Growers are hoping for rainfall and snow in February to mitigate potential losses while increasing calls for drought-related interventions highlight the urgency of the situation.

United States

US Apple Storage Declines Slightly in Feb-25

As of February 1, 2025, the United States (US) had 130 million bushels of apples in storage, marking a 5% YoY decline from last year’s 137 million bushels but remaining 11% above the five-year average. Fresh apple holdings stood at 93 million bushels, while processing stocks reached 38 million bushels, both reflecting a 5% YoY decrease. Covering over 95% of the country’s storage capacity, the report underscores a slight dip in overall apple inventories while maintaining a historically strong supply.

Netherlands

Dutch Apple Exports Strengthen Position in Vietnam’s Expanding Fruit Market

The Netherlands has expanded its footprint in Vietnam’s growing fruit market, where apple imports reached USD 237.1 million in 2023. With shipments surpassing 30 containers by 2024, Dutch apples, including the Tessa Apple, have gained traction among Vietnamese consumers. The Dutch government has played a crucial role in facilitating market access, starting with the first shipment of Conference pears in 2016. The recent Dutch Tessa Apple Product Launch Event in Ho Chi Minh City further highlighted the rising demand for Dutch apples, reinforcing their strong position in Vietnam’s fruit market.

South Africa

South Africa Regains Access to Thai Apple Market

South Africa’s apple industry has long been a key player in the global fruit trade, with exports making up a significant portion of total production. However, access to certain markets has been restricted due to evolving trade policies and phytosanitary regulations. In 2008, Thailand imposed import restrictions on South African apples, closing a lucrative market for nearly two decades. During this period, South Africa focused on expanding exports to other regions, including the Far East and Asia, which now account for a substantial share of shipments. The recent reopening of the Thai market marks a breakthrough, offering renewed export opportunities, particularly for growers in KwaZulu-Natal. To sustain this progress, continued investment in trade negotiations, compliance with international standards, and agricultural infrastructure will be essential in maintaining competitiveness and market expansion.

Turkey

Turkish Apple Exports Expand Into New Markets Despite Challenges

Turkey’s apple season is progressing well, with exporters successfully diversifying beyond their primary market in India. Despite logistical challenges caused by the Red Sea crisis and high pre-harvest temperatures, Turkish apple exporters have optimized supply chains and explored alternative shipping routes to maintain exports. While volumes have been lower than in previous seasons, demand continues to grow, particularly in newly entered African markets. Prices have remained stable, influenced by labor and freight costs. With the peak export season just beginning, Turkish exporters remain optimistic about sustaining growth and meeting global demand.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Apple Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Apple Pricing Important Exporters (W7 2024 to W7 2025)

Italy

Italy's apple prices held steady at USD 1.70 per kilogram (kg) in W7, reflecting a 1.16% month-on-month (MoM) decrease and a 7.10% YoY decrease due to weaker international demand, particularly from Spain, which has seen a slower-than-expected start to pear consumption. Unlike last season, when Italian buyers were actively sourcing pears from Spain due to production shortages at home, this year’s market conditions appear more stable, reducing pressure on apple demand. Additionally, the increased availability of pears from Belgium and the Netherlands may be influencing consumer purchasing decisions, contributing to the subdued apple pricing trend.

United States

In the US, apple prices rose slightly by 0.78% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.29/kg in W7, showing a 3.20% MoM increase and a 12.17% YoY increase due to tightening storage supplies, which declined by 5% YoY as of February 1, 2025. Despite inventories remaining above the five-year average, reduced fresh apple holdings and processing stocks contributed to upward price pressure. Additionally, concerns over climate risks affecting future yields, particularly in key production areas like Yakima, Washington, have heightened market uncertainty, prompting buyers to secure supply in advance, further supporting prices.

Chile

In W7, Chilean apple prices fell by 8.65% WoW to USD 1.69/kg, with a 24.22% MoM drop due to increased supply from the Southern Hemisphere harvest, particularly from Brazil and South Africa, which heightened competition in export markets. Additionally, weaker demand from key importing regions contributed to the downward price trend. However, there is a 16.55% YoY increase in apple prices due to lower carryover stocks from the previous season and improved export opportunities in Asia and North America, where buyers are securing supply ahead of peak demand periods.

South Africa

Apple prices in South Africa slightly dropped by 1.89% WoW to USD 1.04/kg in W7, with a 28.28% YoY decrease due to higher production volumes and increased competition from other Southern Hemisphere suppliers, which have put downward pressure on prices. However, apple prices increased by 2.97% MoM due to strong seasonal demand and export activity, particularly as shipments to key markets in Europe and Asia gained momentum.

France

France's apple prices rose by 6.29% WoW to USD 1.52/kg in W7, marking an increase of 4.11% YoY due to strong export demand and limited availability as the peak season progresses. However, there is a 1.94% drop in apple prices due to steady domestic supply and slower consumer purchasing, which has eased price pressure despite overall market stability.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Maximize Market Entry Success in Thailand

South African apple exporters should focus on market-specific strategies to strengthen their position in Thailand. Implementing targeted marketing campaigns, ensuring compliance with Thai phytosanitary standards, and leveraging premium apple varieties such as Pink Lady and Granny Smith can enhance competitiveness. Strengthening cold chain logistics and optimizing shipping routes will help maintain fruit quality and extend shelf life, ensuring long-term success in this newly reopened market.

Optimize Inventory Management for Stable Pricing

US apple storage facilities and distributors should adjust inventory release strategies to prevent price fluctuations caused by declining stocks. Prioritizing high-demand varieties like Honeycrisp and Gala for fresh markets while strategically allocating processing apples can help balance supply. Extending controlled-atmosphere storage periods and coordinating with retailers to stagger shipments will ensure consistent market availability and stable pricing.

Adopt Drought-Resilient Orchard Practices

Apple growers in Shimla should transition to drought-resilient practices to mitigate yield losses. Implementing mulching and drip irrigation will help retain soil moisture while selecting low-chill and climate-adaptive varieties like Anna and Dorsett Golden can improve productivity. Installing anti-hail nets and shade covers can also reduce heat stress and protect early-sprouting trees from unexpected weather fluctuations.

Sources: Tridge, DA, Freshplaza, Millenium Post, MLVVN, US Apple Association, WAPA