W7: Weekly Sunflower Oil Update
Global
The world balance on vegetable oils in February for 2022/23 MR, as in January, nearly did not change, although observers predicted a more significant decline in the prediction of world production due to a dip in soybean production in Argentina. Taking into account the increase in sunflower oil supplies by 800K MT to 9.73MMT, which would exceed the 2021/22 MR indication by 8.45MMT, the worldwide import prediction has been increased by 900K MT to 83.85MMT. India imported 459K MT of sunflower oil in January 2023, more than twice as much as in the month before. Ukraine supplied 155.7K MT of sunflower oil to the country last month, making it the primary supplier. Moreover, India received 57.7K MT from Bulgaria and 82K MT from Russia. Small quantities of sunflower oil were delivered from Argentina, Poland, Romania, and Turkey.
Russia
Russia Will Become the World’s Leading Exporter of Sunflower Oil This Season, According to IKAR
Russia will overtake the United States as the primary exporter of sunflower oil in 2023. A record global oilseed crop and supply are anticipated at the end of the 2022/23 growing season. Due to export duties protecting the market for raw materials this season, oil refiners had a stable margin for the first time.
Ukraine
Ukraine Continues to Export Sunseed and Soybeans at High Rates
The exports of oilseeds including sunflower seed, soybeans, and rapeseed remarkably outperform those of last year. However, exports of sunflower oil and meal are lower than they were the previous year. The main logistical element that enables the full realization of the export potential is the "grain corridor.“
USDA Raised the Forecast for Ukrainian Sunflower Oil
The USDA has raised its projections for Ukraine's production and export of sunflowers and the products used in its processing in 2022/23. Due to improved processing and demand from key consumers, particularly China, experts revised their estimates of sunflower oil exports to 3.85MMT (+200K MT) and sunflower meal exports to 3.2MMT (+300K MT). Also, the expectation for Ukrainian sunflower exports was raised by 200K MT to 2.65MMT.
In Ukraine, Demand Prices for Sunflower Began to Decline
After nearly 4 months of the price increase trend dominating the Ukrainian sunflower seed market, a negative price trend has been observed since the start of W7. The sharp drop in the price of unrefined sunflower oil in the export market was a factor in the price decline. The tension in the market was also increased by Russian signals that the "grain corridor" project was not justified because obligations to lift export restrictions on Russian agricultural goods and fertilizers were allegedly not kept. Sunflower seed demand prices, therefore, fell by USD 18.94–32.4MT/ throughout the period mentioned, and as of February 10, it generally fluctuates between USD 392.27–470.72/MT.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s Sunflower Oil Exports Hit a New Record in Crop Year 2021/22
The European Union (EU) accounts for 65% of global exports of sunflower oil, while South Africa accounts for 16%. The two largest importers are India and Iraq. China is one of the biggest importers as well. Due to the growth of the planted area, Bulgaria's sunflower seed harvest for the 2021/22 season reached 2MMT. Bulgarian exports of sunflower oil and seeds increased as a result of the record sunflower crop in 2022.
India
India’s January Palm Oil Imports Fall as Sunflower Oil Buying Rises
According to the trade organization, soy oil imports increased by 45% to 366,625MT, and imports of sunflower oil increased by nearly 138% to a record 461,458MT. For the previous two to three months, sunflower oil has been extremely competitive, which has encouraged refiners to increase purchases while decreasing palm oil purchases. Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria have been competing with each other and offering sunflower oil at a discount to soy oil.