W13 Canola/Rapeseed Update: European Winter Crops Struggle Amid Adverse Weather, Russia Anticipates Expansion in Rapeseed Cultivation in 2024

Published 2024년 4월 6일

In W13 in the canola oil landscape, MARS’ Mar-24 report underscores the challenges EU winter crops face, where adverse weather conditions have impacted cultivation. Experts anticipate a 2% YoY increase in the EU's average rapeseed yield for the 2024/25 season. Meanwhile, the sown area for major oilseed crops in Russia is projected to surpass 17 million ha in 2024, with a particular focus on expanding rapeseed cultivation. Notably, Russian exports of domestic oil and fat products surged 17.9% YoY, with significant rises in rapeseed oil exports, especially to China. Germany's rapeseed imports registered a notable increase in the first half of the 2023/24 season, led by contributions from EU countries and a substantial rise from Ukraine despite ongoing conflicts. However, Canada faced a 34% YoY decline in canola exports, attributed to intensified competition from Australia in various markets.

EU Winter Crops Struggled Amid Adverse Weather in 2023/24 Season

The Mar-24 Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) report indicates that winter crops across much of the European Union (EU) have faced adverse weather conditions since the 2024/25 season began. In northern European regions, excessive moisture combined with frost has damaged winter crops, leading to expectations of replanting with warmer crops. Conversely, Romania and Bulgaria have experienced constant precipitation deficits, particularly impacting the development of winter rapeseed crops. MARS experts forecast the average rapeseed yield in the EU for the 2024/25 season to be around 4.25 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), marking a 2% year-on-year (YoY) increase from the previous season's yield of 3.18 mt/ha.

Russian Rapeseed Exports Surged 63.6% YoY in Early 2024

From the start of 2024 until March 3, exports of Russian domestic oil and fat products reached 1.75 mmt, reflecting a substantial 17.9% YoY increase. Notably, rapeseed oil exports surged by 63.6% YoY. In 2023, the top Russian oil and fat products importers were China, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and several Middle Eastern and African countries. China experienced a significant increase, with rapeseed oil accounting for the largest share of sales, totaling 1.4 mmt.

Expansion Expected in Russia's Oilseed Crop Sown Area for 2024

The sown area for major oilseed crops in Russia is expected to surpass 17 million ha in 2024, compared to 16.97 million ha in 2023. The forecast suggests an expansion in the area dedicated to rapeseed, with estimates ranging from 2.25 to 2.35 million ha. Major producing regions will increase crop cultivation, contributing to this anticipated growth.

Germany's Rapeseed Imports Surged in 2023/24 Season

According to the German Union for the Promotion of Oil and Vegetable Proteins (UFOP), Germany imported approximately 3.5 mmt of rapeseed in the first half of the 2023/24 season, compared to 2.6 mmt in the 2022/23 season. Around 2.2 mmt were from EU countries, with Romania, Poland, and France as top contributors. However, the highest volume came from Ukraine, totaling 995.6 thousand mt, nearly double compared to 2023, despite the ongoing conflict. Notably, Canada did not supply significant volumes for the first time in five years, while Australian supplies also declined significantly to 165.8 thousand mt, down from 405 thousand mt in the previous season.

Competition from Australia Impacts Canadian Canola Export Markets

Canada faces significant competition from Australia in various canola export markets, posing challenges for Canadian exporters. Australian canola was offered at a discount of USD 50 to 60/mt compared to Canadian canola in markets like Mexico and Japan. This competition intensified as Australian production surged, reaching 8.27 mmt in 2023. Despite this, Canada's canola export is forecasted at 4.4 mmt in 2024, down from 5.87 mmt in the previous year, reflecting a decline in market share. Moreover, despite the availability of Australian supplies, Japan's continued preference for Canadian canola.

Canada's Canola Exports Declined 34% YoY in 2023/24 Season

According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), Canada exported approximately 3.8 mmt of canola from the start of the 2023/24 season until March 17. This marks a notable decline of 34% YoY, which amounted to 5.75 mmt.