1. Weekly News

Global

Global Coffee Prices Expected to Remain High Amid Supply Concerns and Climatic Challenges

On April 14, International Coffee Day, experts warned of a continued rise in coffee prices over the next year. Brazil's 2025/26 harvest is projected to decline compared to the previous season, with Arabica production down 13% and Robusta up 18%, yet total output still falling short. Factors driving prices higher include reduced global supply due to lower yields in Brazil and Vietnam, speculative trading, and a stronger United States (US) dollar. Although some price relief may come in 2026 if favorable weather returns, for now, cost pressures remain high due to persistent supply issues and climate-related disruptions.

Angola

Angola Joins 2022 International Coffee Agreement to Boost Production and Exports

Angola's National Assembly has approved the 2022 International Coffee Agreement (ICA 2022) to enhance international cooperation and support the country's coffee production and export expansion. In 2024, Angola produced 7,584 tons of coffee, with exports reaching 2,165 tons—a 51% YoY increase. Once the world’s third-largest coffee producer, Angola aims to revive its past coffee glory. The ICA, managed by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), is a major multilateral framework involving 49 member states that account for 93% of global coffee production and 63% of consumption.

El Salvador

El Salvador Launches First-Ever Coffee Export to Africa via Morocco

El Salvador has begun exporting its premium coffee to Africa for the first time, with three containers en route to Morocco. This inaugural deal, valued at USD 500,000, involves 1,000 quintals of coffee sold to Moroccan company Dahab Café at USD 350 per quintal. The first shipment is expected to arrive at Tangier Med Port on May 17, with plans for 20 more containers this year. Salvadoran coffee, grown at high altitudes in the Apaneca-Ilamatepec region, is prized for its floral and fruity notes. This move aims to diversify Morocco’s coffee sources amid rising global coffee prices and growing domestic demand for high-quality roasts. Morocco consumes around 38,000 tons of coffee annually, mainly imported from Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia, but is now welcoming more origin varieties, including El Salvador.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W16 2024 to W16 2025) 

Brazil

In W16, Brazil's coffee prices rose to USD 10.34 per kilogram (kg), the highest level in the past year, reflecting a 6.49% week-on-week (WoW), 1.67% month-on-month (MoM), and 59.81% YoY increase. This upward trend is primarily driven by a forecasted 13% drop in the 2025/26 Arabica harvest, ongoing climate-related disruptions such as droughts and frosts since 2021, and limited farmer sales, with only 13% of the projected crop released to the market. The stronger US dollar and speculative trading have further supported bullish price momentum. While recent weeks saw minor corrections due to seasonal harvest expectations and uncertainty from new US tariffs, the overall market remains tight, sustaining elevated price levels.

Colombia

In W16, Colombia's coffee prices fell to USD 9.66/kg, marking a 0.72% WoW drop and 5.57% MoM decline, after peaking at USD 10.23/kg in W13, which represented the highest price of the past year. Since that peak, prices have been adjusting to more typical levels due to market corrections and shifts in supply and demand dynamics. Despite this short-term decline, prices remain 15.97% higher YoY, supported by strong international demand, particularly from the US, and Colombia’s reputation for high-quality coffee. The market has been further influenced by trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and increasing competition from other coffee exporters, all of which have put pressure on Colombian price differentials. Additionally, US-imposed tariffs have introduced further barriers, creating uncertainty in price stability moving forward. 

Vietnam

In W16, Vietnam’s coffee prices rose to USD 5.05/kg, up 8.14% WoW, signaling a strong rebound after a temporary dip in W15, though prices are still down 3.26% MoM. This recent gain reflects tightening domestic supply driven by Vietnam’s lowest Robusta output in 25 years due to persistent drought in the Central Highlands, coupled with strong export demand from Europe and Asia. Although prices had corrected earlier due to speculative selloffs and buyer caution amid tariff concerns, the resumption of bullish momentum suggests renewed market confidence. YoY prices are also up 8.14%, supported by record export values and favorable currency shifts, despite ongoing challenges related to dry weather and delayed shipments.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Negotiate Brazilian Contracts Before Further Price Rises Due to 2025/26 Shortage

Importers should prioritize early contract negotiations with Brazilian suppliers before the full impact of the projected 13% drop in Arabica output for the 2025/26 season is priced in. With current prices already at a yearly high and further increases likely amid tightening supply and limited farmer sales, securing volumes now can lock in more favorable terms. Early engagement also helps mitigate risks from speculative price hikes and currency volatility. Building strategic, longer-term partnerships with suppliers may provide preferential access as availability tightens and competition intensifies in the global market.

Explore New Markets and Agreements for Growth

Angola’s entry into the ICA 2022 and El Salvador’s first coffee shipment to Africa highlight the importance of strategic international partnerships. Emerging exporters should identify underpenetrated markets with growing demand (e.g. Morocco or other North African countries) and leverage intergovernmental trade frameworks to ease market entry and scale exports.

Expand Market Penetration During Pricing Recovery

Vietnamese exporters, buoyed by a recent price rebound, should capitalize on renewed market confidence to expand exports, especially in Europe and Asia. Promotional efforts emphasizing competitive pricing, despite ongoing drought issues, can help win contracts in markets shifting from traditional suppliers.

Sources: Tridge, Assahraa, Food Mate, Nepal Republic Media, Nong Nghiep Moi Truong, Vina Net, WTO