1. Weekly News

Indonesia

Indonesia's Poultry Boom Drives Corn Feed Use to 9.3 MMT in MY 2024/25

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Indonesia's domestically produced corn is used for animal feed, with around 90% consumed by the poultry sector. Driven by the expansion of broiler and layer flocks, feed demand continues to grow, prompting feed mills to ramp up production. Poultry feed output will reach 21.4 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY), pushing total feed production to 23.3 mmt, an increase of 3% year-on-year (YoY). Consequently, corn consumption for feed will rise to 9.3 mmt in 2024/25 and 9.4 mmt in 2025/26.

Mexico

Mexico's Agricultural Output Expected to Drop to Seven-Year Low in 2025, Corn Production Declines Further

In 2025, Mexico's agricultural production will reach its lowest level in seven years, falling to 280.3 mmt, with corn output facing challenges. After reaching its weakest production point in a decade in 2024, corn production will decline by another 5.6% YoY to 21.7 mmt in 2025. Mexico will import a record 25.8 mmt of corn, primarily yellow corn from the United States (US) to meet domestic demand.

Thailand

Thailand Considers Reducing Tariffs on US Corn to Boost Animal Feed Market

Thailand plans to reduce tariffs on corn imports from the US, although officials have not finalized the import volumes. The former US President’s trade measures, which imposed a higher-than-expected 36% tariff, heavily impacted Thailand and other Southeast Asian nations. The Thai government will use a 90-day pause on these US tariffs to formulate an appropriate response. Thailand consumes around 9 mmt of corn annually and typically imports between 4 and 5 mmt. Thai Finance Minister emphasized that imports must benefit the country, stating that the low cost of American corn helps reduce animal feed prices. According to the Thai Feed Mill Association, Thailand currently imposes a 73% import tax on US corn.

United States

CBOT Corn Eases in W16 After Dollar-Led Surge in W15

Chicago corn futures eased on April 14 after W15’s gains, driven by a weakening US dollar, which briefly boosted the competitiveness of American agricultural exports. Pressured by the former US President's tariff policies, the dollar index reached its lowest level since Apr-22, supporting a rally in US farm goods. However, with the dollar stabilizing, W16 price markets corrected slightly. The USDA’s tighter supply outlook for corn in W15 lent fundamental support, with speculators becoming net buyers across all three commodities. Thailand’s recent move to cut tariffs on US corn imports also buoyed optimism, though specific volumes are still under discussion. In W16, the Chicago Board of Trade's (CBOT) most-active corn contract dipped 0.7% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.87/bushel after the surge of 6.5% WoW in W15, its strongest weekly performance since May-23.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Maize Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Maize Pricing Important Exporters (W16 2024 to W16 2025)

Brazil

In W16, Brazil's wholesale maize prices held steady WoW at USD 0.24 per kilogram (kg) but declined 7.69% month-on-month (MoM), reflecting pressure from improved short-term weather conditions and evolving market expectations. Although persistent dry spells earlier in the season raised concerns over Safrinha (second-season) corn yields, especially in southern regions like Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, recent rainfall has alleviated some concerns. Precipitation in key producing states, including São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Mato Grosso, has supported crop development during critical growth stages, improving overall yield prospects and easing market fears of a sharp supply shortfall. Traders and producers are more optimistic that the Safrinha harvest may not decline as severely as initially feared, contributing to the recent price stability. However, concerns linger about localized drought damage, and market participants monitor weather patterns closely ahead of the peak harvest period expected in late May through June.

Argentina

In W16, Argentine maize prices remained stable WoW but rose 11.11% YoY, reaching USD 0.20/kg. This price increase was due to global supply constraints resulting from climate-related disruptions in major maize-producing regions, such as the US, Ukraine, and Brazil, which caused a market imbalance. Consequently, Argentina saw a surge in demand, especially from Europe, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa. The weaker Argentine peso further boosted export competitiveness, increasing international demand. Additionally, regional buyers in Latin America and the Middle East, who rely on Argentina as a key supplier, contributed to the price increase, amplified by the global supply shortfall.

Ukraine

In W16, Ukrainian wholesale maize prices held steady WoW but rose 60% YoY to USD 0.24/kg. Tightening domestic supplies and persistent logistical challenges primarily drove the price increase. Although Ukraine moderately recovered its maize production in 2025 to around 27 mmt, up from 23.2 mmt in 2024, infrastructure damage and disruptions at key Black Sea export corridors continued to hinder shipments. These bottlenecks limited maize flows to international markets. Meanwhile, strong demand from key importers such as China, the European Union (EU), and North Africa increased prices. As rival exporters like Russia and Serbia faced export restrictions or lower output, more buyers turned to Ukraine, further fueling the price rally.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Corn Supply through Strategic Imports and Domestic Support

Indonesia’s reliance on domestically produced corn for animal feed requires a dual approach to ensure long-term supply security. While production is expanding, domestic output remains insufficient to meet rising demand, with consumption expected to reach 9.3 mmt in 2024/25. To bridge the gap, Indonesia should diversify its corn import sources beyond traditional suppliers like the US. Tapping into competitive markets such as Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine will help ensure a steady and affordable feed supply while minimizing the risk of price shocks due to disruptions in any region. At the same time, Indonesia should boost domestic corn production by incentivizing the use of high-yield hybrid seeds, improving irrigation infrastructure, and expanding post-harvest storage facilities to reduce losses. Strengthening import strategies and local support mechanisms will ensure a more resilient feed supply chain for Indonesia’s poultry sector and enhance overall food security.

Capitalize on US Corn Export Opportunities in Thailand and Mexico

The US has a timely opportunity to reinforce its position as a top corn exporter by deepening trade relations with Thailand and Mexico, two major importers facing internal production or policy challenges. The recent suspension of high US corn import tariffs in Thailand presents a critical window to secure long-term trade access. During this 90-day pause, US trade negotiators should work with Thai officials to establish preferential terms that make American corn a staple in Thailand’s feed mix. Given Thailand’s annual demand of about 9 mmt and current import needs of 4 to 5 mmt, offering reliable and competitively priced US corn can help stabilize the country’s animal feed costs. Similarly, Mexico’s declining corn output in 2025, the lowest in years, means they will increasingly depend on imports, primarily from the US. The US can ensure continued dominance in the Mexican market and build mutually beneficial trade relationships by formalizing long-term supply agreements or joint investments in logistics infrastructure (such as grain terminals).

Facilitate Infrastructure Investment and Logistics Support in Ukraine

Ukraine's maize production is gradually recovering from wartime setbacks, with 2025 output projected at around 27 mmt, up from 23.2 mmt in 2024. However, the country experiences severe logistical challenges due to damaged infrastructure and restricted access to Black Sea export routes. To unlock this export potential, international donors and European allies should prioritize infrastructure investments that enable Ukraine to move grain efficiently. This includes funding the repair and modernization of ports, grain corridors, and alternate overland routes through neighboring countries like Poland and Romania. Streamlining export logistics will help Ukraine realize its full production potential, alleviate global grain shortages, and stabilize prices in regions that rely heavily on Ukrainian maize.

Sources: Tridge, 3tres3, Grain Trade, Hellenic Shipping News, UkrAgroConsult