Global

USDA Updates US and Global Soybean Forecasts in Apr-25 Report

In its Apr-25 report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the United States (US) 2024/25 soybean crop at 118.82 million metric tons (mmt), with an average yield of 50.7 bushels per acre. The USDA slightly lowered projected ending stocks to 10.2 mmt, falling short of market expectations. It also raised the soybean crushing forecast from 2.410 to 2.420 billion bushels. Meanwhile, export projections remained steady at 1.825 billion bushels.

Globally, soybean production for 2024/25 will reach 420.58 mmt, down slightly from previous forecasts, with ending stocks revised upward to 122.47 mmt. For the 2023/24 season, global output is pegged at 396.4 mmt, with ending stocks at 115.27 mmt. China’s soybean import forecast remains unchanged at 112 mmt for 2023/24 and 109 mmt for 2024/25.

Argentina

Argentina Soybean Harvest 2024/25 Lags Due to Floods, Sales at 10-Year Low

Estimated at 48.6 mmt, Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean harvest is progressing slowly, at 4% behind the five-year average. This is due to heavy rains and flooding that have waterlogged fields and delayed harvesting. Farmers struggled to access fields, raising the risk of fungal diseases and mold, while shipments have also been impacted, with only around 20% of the crop sold by April 2, the slowest pace in a decade. As the world’s largest soybean oil and meal exporter, Argentina now faces disruptions in its export flow. Meanwhile, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) forecasts continued rainfall, offering no relief in the coming days.

Egypt

Egypt to Raise Soybean Imports in 2025/26 as Feed Demand Grows

Egypt, the largest importer of soybeans in the Middle East and North Africa, will raise its soybean imports to 4.2 mmt in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY), reflecting a 5% year-on-year (YoY) increase. A projected rise in feed consumption and favorable foreign currency exchange rates drive this growth. In 2024/25, Egypt will boost its soybean imports by 29% YoY to around 4 mmt. Since domestic production will meet only 2% of national demand in 2025/26, the country’s dairy, poultry, and fish producers will continue relying heavily on imports, with US-origin soybeans making up 70% of total imports.

Indonesia

Indonesia Proposes Increased Imports from US to Address Trade Imbalance

Indonesia has proposed increasing imports from the US by up to USD 19 billion, including energy and agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans, and soybean meal, to eliminate its trade surplus with the US and avoid tariffs threatened by the US administration.

Uruguay

Uruguay Reduces Soybean Production Outlook for 2025/26 Season

Uruguay’s soybean production will slightly decline in 2025/26 to 3.1 mmt, down from 3.3 mmt in 2024/25, as farmers shift some land back to corn following a colder-than-normal winter that helped control the leafhopper pest. Despite the decrease, Uruguay will remain a key exporter to China and Argentina. Last season’s harvest was among the highest in the past eight years, but domestic soybean crushing remains limited, with under 10% of production processed locally, mainly at one large facility. Crushing is projected to rise slightly to 170 thousand metric tons (mt), yielding 135 thousand mt of soymeal and 30 thousand mt of soy oil.

Exporters ship most soybeans as whole beans, mainly to China, which absorbed nearly 80% of Uruguay’s exports in 2024 due to its preference for domestic crushing. Meanwhile, Uruguay imports soymeal and oil to supply its local feed and food industries. Exporters will reduce total soybean exports by 100 thousand mt to 2.9 mmt in 2025/26.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (W16 2024 to W16 2025) 

Brazil

In W16, Brazil's soybean prices rose 2.70% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.38 per kilogram (kg), as analysts revised the 2024/25 production forecast downward to around 146.5 mmt from earlier estimates above 150 mmt. Prolonged dry conditions and heat stress during the flowering and pod-filling stages in key producing states like Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná reduced yield prospects. Brazil's export premiums were supported by strong external demand, especially from China, which continues to purchase large volumes amid Argentina’s supply tightness due to drought. The depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar further enhanced the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans, lifting prices. At the same time, farmers held back sales in anticipation of further gains, tightening spot market supply and putting pressure on domestic crushers.

Argentina

In W16, Argentina's soybean prices rose 5.13% WoW to USD 0.41/kg, driven by tightening supply and economic pressures. Severe drought conditions weighed heavily on the 2024/25 soybean crop, significantly reducing yields and limiting availability for domestic use and exports. At the same time, Argentina struggled to maintain its competitiveness in global markets, with weak demand from key buyers like China shifting more interest toward Brazil's larger, more reliable supply. Domestically, high inflation and economic instability pushed production costs up and slowed farmer sales as producers held back in hopes of better exchange rates. Furthermore, government policies, including export taxes and restrictions, added further uncertainty, prompting traders to adopt a cautious approach and reduce sales activity.

Uruguay

In W16, Uruguay's soybean prices remained steady at USD 0.41/kg as favorable weather conditions boosted expectations of a strong harvest. Despite this, Uruguay’s soybean production will slightly decline in 2025/26 to 3.1 mmt, down from 3.3 mmt in 2024/25, as farmers shift some land back to corn following a colder-than-normal winter that helped control the leafhopper pest. Despite the decrease, Uruguay will remain a key exporter to China and Argentina. Last season’s harvest was among the highest in the past eight years, but domestic soybean crushing remains limited, with under 10% of production processed locally, mainly at one large facility.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets for South American Soybeans

South American soybean exporters, particularly Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, should focus on diversifying their export markets beyond China. While China remains a dominant buyer, the geopolitical dynamics and fluctuations in Chinese demand have been causing volatility. To hedge against these risks, exporters can proactively seek out new buyers in regions like the European Union (EU), Egypt, and Indonesia. Moreover, expanding into emerging markets across Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia could provide new opportunities for soybean exports. Establishing long-term trade agreements or building stronger relationships with these markets would help to stabilize the revenue stream and reduce reliance on a single market. For instance, Egypt, which is increasing its soybean imports, could become a valuable partner.

Boost Domestic Crushing Capacity in Uruguay and Argentina

Uruguay and Argentina should increase their domestic soybean crushing capacity to capture more value from their production. Currently, a significant portion of their soybeans is exported as whole beans, leaving value-added products like soymeal and soy oil untapped. Both countries can achieve this by upgrading their soybean crushing facilities, either through incentivizing private investment or public-private partnerships focused on enhancing processing infrastructure. Developing additional crushing facilities would enable these countries to boost domestic production of soy meal and soy oil, which are essential for animal feed and food industries. Moreover, this approach would help reduce reliance on imported products, create local processing sector jobs, and allow Uruguay and Argentina to capture higher value from their agricultural products. By processing more soybeans domestically, they can enhance their competitiveness in global markets and reduce their dependency on raw soybean exports.

Hedge Against Currency Fluctuations and Price Volatility

Farmers and exporters in Brazil and Argentina should implement hedging strategies to manage currency fluctuations and price volatility. These countries often face large shifts in their currency value due to inflation, economic instability, or market changes, which can significantly impact the profitability of soybean exports. To mitigate this, producers and exporters can use financial instruments like forward contracts, options, and futures to lock in favorable prices for soybeans and hedge against potential currency risks. Implementing such strategies would allow them to ensure more consistent profitability and avoid selling soybeans at unfavorable exchange rates or during periods of low global prices. Providing education and access to these financial tools for local producers can further support stability and profitability in the soybean sector.

Sources: Tridge, UkrAgroConsult