1. Weekly News

Global

IGC Forecasts Record Global Grain Production in 2025/26

The International Grains Council (IGC) projects global grain production to reach a record 2.373 billion metric tons (mt) in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY), driven by an expected bumper corn crop. In its Apr-25 report, the IGC raised its corn output forecast to a record 1.274 billion mt, up 5% from 2024/25. Global grain trade will reach 424 million metric tons (mmt). Due to weaker Chinese demand, this figure is still below average levels.

Europe

EU Corn Imports Increased 14% YoY in 2024/25

In MY 2024/25, the European Union's (EU) corn imports increased by 14% year-on-year (YoY), driven by a surge in imports from the United States (US). As of April 20, 2025, the EU imported 9.54 mmt from Ukraine, accounting for 56.9% of the total, a decline from 10.09 mmt in the same period in 2024. The US emerged as the second-largest supplier, with imports soaring to 3.52 mmt. This is up 29.9 times from just 114 thousand mt last year, raising its share to 21%. Brazil’s shipments fell to 1.62 mmt, a decrease from 2.81 mmt, reducing its market share from 18.8% to 9.7%. Canada’s exports also rose, supplying 1.11 mmt, up from 660 thousand mt in 2024.

Argentina

Argentina's Corn Exports Set to Surge in MY 2025/26

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a significant increase in Argentina's corn exports, reaching 37 mmt in MY 2025/26, making it the third-highest export volume on record. This is an increase from 34 mmt in the previous year. The main export destinations for Argentine corn include Vietnam, Peru, Malaysia, South Korea, Chile, and Saudi Arabia. Argentina's corn production is expected to rise to 54 mmt, up from 49 mmt in 2024, making it the fourth-largest corn crop on record. The planted area for corn is projected to increase by nearly 13%, reaching 17.8 million acres. The USDA also noted that given current market conditions, corn returns are expected to be more profitable for farmers than soybeans, similar to the wheat and second soybean combination in Argentina’s core production areas.

Brazil

Santa Catarina Achieves Record Summer Corn Productivity Despite Smaller Planted Area

Santa Catarina’s 2024/25 summer corn campaign is set to achieve record productivity, with production rising by 23% and yields soaring over 40% to 9.72 mt per hectare (ha), even though the planted area shrank by 13%. This remarkable performance is due to advanced farming technologies, skilled crop management practices, and a significant reduction in corn leafhopper infestations. The combination of high prices and excellent yields will incentivize farmers to expand corn planting again, reclaiming land previously shifted to soybeans. Alongside Santa Catarina, Paraná has also emerged as one of the world’s top corn-producing regions, with productivity close to 10 mt per ha. However, despite this success, low domestic stock levels, uncertainty surrounding the second corn harvest (Safrinha), and instability in international markets are expected to sustain price volatility.

Ukraine

Ukrainian Spring Sowing Reached 2 Million HA

​As of April 25, 2025, Ukrainian farmers have sown over 2 million ha of spring grains and legumes, marking approximately 35% of the planned 5.7 million ha for the 2024/25 season. Corn leads the sowing with 705 thousand ha. Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Sumy regions are at the forefront of the corn-sowing campaign, with Poltava alone accounting for 165,200 ha. The sowing progress is steady, although it's about 17% behind 2024's rate due to early Apr-25's cold weather.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Maize Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Maize Pricing Important Exporters (W17 2024 to W17 2025) 

United States

In W17, US corn prices increased by 5.26% month-on-month (MoM) and 11.11% YoY, reaching USD 0.20 per kilogram (kg),. This price hike was due to increased demand for US corn, with exports rising significantly. Apr-25 saw a 30% YoY increase in corn exports compared to the previous year, further tightening domestic supply. Moreover, Mexico’s consecutive crop failures contributed to a sharp rise in corn imports from the US, exacerbating the supply shortage and creating operational difficulties. The combination of higher international demand and constrained domestic supply has pushed prices upwards.

Brazil

In W17, Brazil's wholesale maize prices fell by 4.17% week-on-week (WoW) and 8% MoM, reaching USD 0.23/kg. This decline is due to improved short-term weather conditions and shifting market expectations. Despite earlier concerns about the impact of persistent dry spells on Safrinha corn yields, particularly in southern regions like Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, recent rainfall in key producing states such as São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Mato Grosso has alleviated these worries. The precipitation has supported crop development during critical growth stages, boosting yield prospects and easing fears of a significant supply shortfall. Traders and producers are increasingly optimistic that the Safrinha harvest will not see a decline as initially anticipated. However, concerns over localized drought damage persist, and market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns ahead of the peak harvest period, expected between late May and June.

Argentina

In W17, Argentine maize prices remained stable WoW but increased by 11.11% YoY, reaching USD 0.20/kg, up from USD 0.18/kg in W17 2024. This price rise is due to global supply constraints caused by climate-related disruptions in major maize-producing regions such as the US, Ukraine, and Brazil, leading to market imbalances. As a result, Argentina experienced a surge in demand, particularly from Europe, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa. The weaker Argentine peso further enhanced the competitiveness of exports, boosting international demand. Moreover, regional buyers in Latin America and the Middle East, who heavily rely on Argentina as a key maize supplier, also contributed to the price increase.

Ukraine

In W17, Ukrainian wholesale maize prices fell by 4.17% WoW to USD 0.23/kg, reflecting a 19.5% YoY decrease in corn exports in Mar-25. This decline is linked to reduced global demand and a shift in farming priorities, as Ukrainian farmers have focused more on sowing spring crops instead of corn. In the EU, corn prices are under pressure due to high inventories and decreased demand from processors, though increased supplies from Brazil are helping alleviate some of the strain. Despite the global price drop, Ukrainian maize prices remain 53.33% higher YoY, driven by a persistent global market shortage.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Sourcing and Build Stronger Supply Chains

Traders and importers should diversify their sourcing strategies to mitigate risks from disruptions in key corn-producing regions like Ukraine and Argentina. With volatility in Ukraine’s export market and weather-related issues in Brazil, securing alternative suppliers from countries like the US and even exploring emerging African and Southeast Asia markets could help stabilize supply chains. This will reduce the dependence on a few regions, ensuring a more reliable supply even if one country faces production challenges or logistical issues.

Invest in Crop Yield Technology and Sustainable Practices

Farmers, particularly in regions like Brazil and Argentina, should invest in advanced agricultural technologies and sustainable farming practices to enhance yields and mitigate climate risks. This includes precision farming, drought-resistant seed varieties such as the DroughtGard corn developed by Monsanto, which is engineered to withstand dry conditions, and other hybrid varieties like Dekalb DKC70-50 and Pioneer P1870, known for their high yields and resistance to heat stress. Furthermore, improved irrigation systems such as drip or center pivot irrigation can optimize water usage and ensure robust production despite erratic weather conditions. Increased productivity will help buffer against price fluctuations and potential yield shortfalls. High-tech farming methods, coupled with these resilient seed varieties, also contribute to long-term sustainability and profitability.

Strategic Hedging Against Price Volatility

Top corn-producing countries such as Brazil, the US, Argentina, Ukraine, China, and Mexico should prioritize hedging strategies to manage price volatility and mitigate risks from unpredictable weather, geopolitical factors, and supply chain disruptions. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Safrinha corn harvest in Brazil and the global supply constraints, hedging using futures contracts, options, and other financial instruments becomes increasingly crucial. This approach allows stakeholders to lock in prices, helping mitigate the risks of sudden price drops or surges driven by weather events, geopolitical factors, and fluctuating market conditions. By doing so, producers and traders in these regions can secure predictable revenue, reduce exposure to market volatility, and better manage the challenges brought on by unpredictable market dynamics.

Sources: Tridge, 3tres3, Agravery, Chem Analyst, Food Mate, Graintrade, UkrAgroConsult