1. Weekly News

Global

FAO Raised Global Rice Production Forecast for 2023/24 Season

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has increased its forecast for world cereal production in the 2023/24 season by 5 million metric tons (mmt) compared to the previous year, representing a 1.2% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This upward revision is primarily due to corrections in global rice production, which has increased by 2.9 mmt since Apr-24. The increase follows revisions in historical production data in Myanmar and official assessments in Pakistan, indicating a more significant rebound in production than previously estimated. Consequently, global rice production for the 2023/24 season is expected to reach a new record of 529.2 mmt.

Brazil

Devastating Rains Threaten Brazil's Rice Production, Farmers Face Significant Losses

The recent rains in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul pose a significant threat to rice production, potentially resulting in a 10% to 11% loss, and a staggering USD 13.19 million (BRL 68 million) loss for farmers. Rio Grande do Sul contributes 70% of the national grain production. Before the storm, the state was projected to harvest 7.5 mmt of rice in 2024. However, the tragedy has revised this estimate downward to approximately 6.7 or 6.8 mmt. As of the latest data, about 83% of the rice-planted area has been harvested. However, approximately 150 thousand hectares (ha) remain to be harvested, with 30% in flood-affected regions.

Brazil To Import 1 MMT of Rice to Address Supply Concerns After Rio Grande do Sul Rains

Brazil's federal government is responding to recent rains in Rio Grande do Sul by preparing a Provisional Measure (MP) for the National Supply Company (Conab) to import 1 mmt of rice. This action aims to ensure a stable rice supply and prevent price speculations that could impact rural producers. Initially, the plan is to import 200 thousand metric tons (mt) of processed and packaged rice to address potential shortages and stabilize prices. The importation is by a Legislative Decree Project (PDL) sent to Congress to provide resources for Rio Grande do Sul's recovery from the storm damage. The first auction for 200 thousand mt is expected to involve Mercosur countries like Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and possibly Bolivia. Despite 70% of the rice crop already being harvested, losses are expected due to flooded warehouses and logistical challenges in transporting rice from Rio Grande do Sul to consumer centers.

Myanmar

Myanmar Rice Exports Exceed 110 Thousand MT in Apr-24

In Apr-24, at the beginning of the 2024/25 fiscal year, Myanmar exported over 110 thousand mt of rice and broken rice. Specifically, 42,770 mt of rice and 69,092 mt of broken rice were exported by 45 domestic rice export companies, totaling 111,862 mt. These exports reached 22 countries for rice and 13 for broken rice via sea transport and border trade routes. The maritime trade routes accounted for 111,462 mt of rice and broken rice exports, while border trade routes contributed 400 tons. The largest volumes of rice exports went to Spain (10,675 mt), followed by Cameroon (8,040 mt), Poland (4,429 mt), Togo (4,000 mt), and Mozambique (2,652 mt).

Vietnam

Vietnam's Rice Export Prices Rise, Exports Surged in Apr-24

According to the Vietnam Grain Association, Vietnam’s rice export prices rose by USD 3/mt to USD 8/mt in W18. Specifically, 5% broken rice is priced at USD 585/mt, up by USD 5; 25% broken rice is priced at USD 555/mt, while broken rice remains at USD 470/mt. Vietnam’s rice export price currently ranks the highest in the world. Moreover, Vietnam's rice export volume in Apr-24 increased by 11.7% YoY to 3.23 mmt, with the export value reaching USD 2.08 billion, up 36.5% YoY. This growth is attributed to a year-to-date average rice export price of USD 644/mt, marking a 22.2% increase. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development anticipates national rice production to reach 43 mmt in 2024, sufficient to meet both domestic consumption and external export demand of over 8 mmt.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W19 2023 to W19 2024)

India

The wholesale price of rice in India remained steady at USD 0.66 per kilogram (kg) on a week-on-week (WoW) basis. However, prices decreased by 1% month-on-month (MoM) and 27% YoY from USD 0.52/kg in W19 2023. Demand from Asian and African countries is weak, and some exporters are paying lower duties to offer more competitive prices. New Delhi imposed a 20% export duty on parboiled rice exports in Aug-23 to control domestic prices.

Thailand

In Thailand, the wholesale price of 5% broken rice increased by 3.45% WoW and MoM to USD 0.60/kg in W19. The price increase was driven by higher demand and a stronger Thailand baht, pushing rice prices to a nearly two-month high. Key markets for Thai rice are Indonesia and the Philippines.

Pakistan

Over the past week, the price of Pakistani rice has increased by 1.16% in USD terms, reaching USD 0.87 per kilogram due to the slight appreciation of the Pakistani rupee, despite stable prices in local currency. The price has dropped by 13% YoY, likely as part of a strategy to enhance export competitiveness. By reducing prices, Pakistan aims to better compete with India in the global rice market while maintaining adequate local supply. This approach underscores Pakistan's effort to balance expanding its export market and ensuring domestic food security.

Vietnam

Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged WoW at USD 0.60/kg in W19. Similarly, MoM prices dropped by 3.23%. The price drop is influenced by market uncertainty and anticipation of rice import plans from importing countries. Additionally, the upcoming main Winter-Spring crop, known for its good quality and output, is expected to impact rice price trends significantly.

United States

The wholesale price of milled white long rice increased 2.44% WoW to USD 0.80/kg in W19 from USD 0.82/kg in W18. Similarly, YoY prices dropped 3.61%. This decline is due to increased United States (US) rice production area, which rose to approximately 2.9 million acres in 2023 after two consecutive years of decline.

3. Other Outstanding Price Anomalies

Spanish Rice Prices Declined 4.48% YoY in Apr-24 Amid Market Challenges

As of Apr-24, the wholesale price of Japonica rice in Spain declined, reaching USD 1.16/kg, which marks a 4.48% YoY decrease and a 2.5% MoM decrease. This decline is due to an influx of tariff-free rice from Myanmar, leading to an oversupply of lower-quality rice and driving prices down. The tariff-free import is a result of an agreement between the European Union (EU) and Myanmar.

In response, the Union will ask the Ministry of Agriculture to propose import taxes to the EU to protect Spanish and Extremaduran producers from financial ruin. Additionally, the Union plans to inform the Government Delegation about initiating protest actions against the rice industry for non-compliance with agricultural trade legislation.

4. Actionable Recommendations

Expand Export Market Reach for Myanmar

Given Myanmar's substantial rice exports, domestic rice exporters should diversify their market reach by identifying and targeting new international markets. Develop marketing strategies to promote Myanmar rice, highlighting its quality and competitive pricing. Strengthen trade relationships with existing importers and explore potential partnerships in regions with growing demand for rice.

Capitalize on Rising Export Prices in Vietnam

With Vietnam's rice export prices surging, exporters should leverage this trend to maximize revenue. Enhance branding and marketing efforts to position Vietnamese rice as a premium product in international markets. Invest in quality control and certification processes to meet the stringent requirements of high-value markets, ensuring consistent demand and premium pricing.

Enhance Production Efficiency in Vietnam

To sustain the increased production levels anticipated for 2024,Vietnam should invest in modern agricultural technologies and practices. Encourage the adoption of precision farming, advanced irrigation systems, and high-yield rice varieties. Provide training and support to farmers to implement these innovations effectively, boosting productivity.

Increase Competitiveness of US Rice

In light of the price decline for milled white long rice, US rice producers should focus on enhancing competitiveness through value addition. Explore opportunities for value-added products such as rice flour, bran, and rice-based snacks. Strengthen marketing efforts to promote US rice's quality and sustainability, tapping into niche markets that value these attributes.