1. Weekly News

Global

Global Supply Outlook Eases Coffee Price Pressures Despite Persistent Production Costs

Global coffee markets are showing signs of relief as increased Robusta exports from Vietnam and Uganda boost global supply and help stabilize commodity exchange inventories, according to Bloomberg. While Brazil’s Arabica crop was initially expected to decline, April rains may have supported recovery. However, quality concerns remain due to the presence of undeveloped beans. Despite this more optimistic supply outlook, coffee farmers still grapple with high production costs. While current prices allow for partial financial recovery, a significant drop could threaten producer sustainability.

Brazil

Brazil Raises 2025 Coffee Production Forecast to Record Level for Low Cycle Year

Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) has revised its 2025 coffee production forecast upward to 55.7 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, a 2.7% increase over 2024. This would mark the highest-ever output during a low year of the Arabica coffee biennial cycle. The boost is largely due to a strong Conilon (Robusta) harvest, projected at 18.7 million bags—28% above average—thanks to favorable weather. Arabica production is expected to drop 6.6% to 37 million bags due to extended dryness in 2024. Despite a slight drop in cultivated area and early-year export volumes, Brazil’s coffee export revenues surged 68.9% year-on-year (YoY) in the first quarter of the year (Q1-2025), driven by high global prices.

Coffee Production in Brazil’s Alta Mogiana Face Drought Challenges

The 2025 coffee harvest in Alta Mogiana, a renowned Brazilian region for specialty coffees, began under the strain of a prolonged drought that significantly reduced yields—by up to 20% in some areas. This surpassed the official estimate of a 4% drop for São Paulo. While irrigation systems helped mitigate losses on some farms, many producers continue to face harsh conditions. Despite the challenges, optimism remains high for the 2026 cycle, supported by the natural biennial rhythm of coffee trees and current favorable weather for branch development. Stable, dry conditions are now crucial to ensuring the quality of the beans being harvested and to preparing for a stronger comeback in the next season.

SCA and BSCA Partner to Standardize Global Coffee Evaluation with CVA System

The Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) has partnered with the Brazil Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA) to implement the Coffee Value Assessment (CVA) as Brazil’s official protocol for professional coffee evaluation. Signed during the Specialty Coffee Expo in Houston, the agreement also tasks BSCA with expanding SCA’s educational programs in Brazil. This follows a similar partnership with Colombia’s Coffee Growers Federation and SCA’s takeover of the Q Grader program a program that evaluates green coffee. These moves mark a pivotal step toward consolidating coffee quality assessment standards globally, with potential long-term impacts on how coffee is valued, priced, and communicated in the global market.

Honduras

Honduran Coffee Output and Exports Set to Climb Amid Global Price Surge

Honduran coffee production is projected to rise from 5.52 million 60-kg bags in the 2024/25 season to 5.80 million in the 2025/26 season, driven by reduced coffee rust incidence, better labor availability, and an 81% increase in international prices fueled by adverse weather in key producing countries. Correspondingly, exports are expected to grow to 5.36 million bags in 2024/25 and 5.5 million in 2025/26, reflecting the country's improving production outlook and strong global demand.

Uganda

Uganda Projects 27% Surge in Coffee Exports Amid Global Price Boom and Tree Maturity

Uganda expects coffee exports to rise by 27% YoY to 8 million 60-kg bags by the end of the current crop year (September 30), driven by maturing trees from government programs and strong global prices. The National Union of Coffee Agribusinesses and Farm Enterprises (NUCAFE) credits favorable rainfall, seedling distribution, and a 70% spike in global prices due to weather disruptions in Brazil and Vietnam for fueling production. Uganda, Africa’s top coffee exporter, earned USD 1.4 billion from coffee last year and aims to reach 20 million bags by 2030. However, the looming European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) poses a major compliance risk unless swift reforms are implemented.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s Coffee Exports Decline in April Despite Strong YTD Performance

Vietnam exported USD 965.83 million worth of coffee in Apr-25, down 9.20% from March, though year-to-date (YTD) exports remain strong at USD 3.80 billion. Germany retained its position as the top export market despite a sharp 21.56% drop YoY, contributing 16.55% of total YTD exports. Spain held steady with only a 0.97% decrease, while Italy recorded a 12.29% increase, accounting for 8.11% of YTD value. Japan saw a significant 20.05% decline YoY. Among other markets, South Africa posted the largest monthly gain (+431.50%), while the UK suffered the steepest drop (-60.02%).

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important  Exporters (W19 2024 to W19 2025) 

Brazil

Brazil's coffee prices have experienced significant volatility in 2025, with a 9.40% week-on-week (WoW) drop and a 4.93% month-on-month (MoM) decrease by W19, following a surge in W18 to the highest prices of the year. This decline comes after speculative-driven price hikes and reflects a return to more normalized levels. Despite the recent drop, prices have risen 53.59% YoY, driven by reduced Arabica production due to adverse weather conditions, a stronger United States (US) dollar boosting exports, and speculative trading. While Robusta production remains stable, it hasn't offset the expected shortfall in Arabica, and producers are holding off on selling in anticipation of better prices. This has led to a tightened global supply, and although recent price drops suggest market corrections, long-term price pressures are expected to continue with a forecast of strong export revenues for 2025.

Colombia

Colombia's coffee prices in W19 reached USD 9.76/kg, showing a WoW decrease of 8.70% from the peak in W18, which marked the highest price seen over the past year. Despite this drop, the MoM price is still 1.04% higher, reflecting that prices are holding relatively steady on a monthly basis.  YoY prices are up by 19.61%, indicating a strong upward trend compared to last year. This price shift can be attributed to a combination of factors. While the sharp rise in prices during W18 reflected the highest levels of the year due to improved weather conditions, increased production, and rising export revenues, the recent price drop is partly a market correction following that peak. Increased Colombian coffee exports, bolstered by higher competitiveness in key markets like the US and Europe, have driven prices higher over the past year. However, global demand continues to place upward pressure on prices, and the diversification of export destinations has provided stability. Even with the recent drop, the strong YoY increase suggests ongoing bullish market sentiment driven by sustained global demand and a recovery in production.

Vietnam

Vietnam's coffee prices have remained relatively stable in recent weeks compared to other major coffee producers like Brazil and Colombia. Prices in W19 was USD 4.95/kg, reflecting a WoW drop of 1.20% and a MoM decrease of 1.98%. Despite these short-term declines, prices have seen a YoY increase of 25.32%, indicating a strong upward trend over the past year. The recent stability in Vietnam's prices can be attributed to several factors. While there was a slight price dip in W18, it appears to be part of a market correction following a previous surge in Robusta prices. Export volumes have been lower, as farmers withhold stock in anticipation of higher prices in the future, driven by market speculation. The drought in Vietnam has also reduced output, raising concerns about future supply, which could exert long-term upward pressure on prices. Additionally, evolving regulatory changes, such as the EUDR, might impact the supply chain and pricing stability moving forward. These factors contribute to a volatile market where short-term price fluctuations are balanced by long-term price pressures due to climatic challenges and regulatory shifts.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Leverage Specialty Coffee and Quality Standards

The SCA's partnership with Brazil's BSCA to standardize the CVA system for coffee evaluation presents a significant opportunity. Countries like Honduras and Uganda, which are enhancing their coffee quality and output, should also invest in specialty coffee certifications and improve the traceability of their production. This will add value to their exports, attract premium buyers, and offset the pressures of production costs. Encouraging smallholder coffee producers to adopt sustainable practices and quality assessment systems, such as CVA or Q Grader, can help differentiate their products in the competitive global market.

Strengthen Sustainability and Regulatory Compliance

As the EUDR looms, Uganda and Vietnam must focus on sustainability reforms. They should take proactive steps toward compliance by adopting sustainable farming practices and ensuring that their coffee supply chains meet environmental standards. Uganda's rising exports could be at risk if these regulatory challenges are not addressed quickly, particularly as Vietnam's supply chain is already under scrutiny. These countries should seek partnerships with global organizations to facilitate certifications that align with evolving EU regulations.

Enhance Domestic Support and Farmer Resilience

For countries like Brazil and Honduras, supporting domestic farmers through improved access to irrigation systems, education on pest management (like coffee rust), and more stable financing options will enhance resilience. The forecast for Honduras is positive, with increased production driven by reduced coffee rust and better labor availability. Investing in local infrastructure and rainwater harvesting technologies can help mitigate the impacts of droughts, particularly in regions like Alta Mogiana in Brazil, where yields were reduced due to the prolonged dry spell.

Sources: Tridge, Daily Coffee News, Food Business MEA, News Foodmate, Portal do Agonegocio, Revisita Cultivar, USDA, The Cooperator, The-Shiv