1. Weekly News

Global

Global Rice Prices Under Pressure as India’s Record Output and Mercosur Competition Reshape Market Dynamics

The global rice market under pressure as India’s record 2024 production of 147 million metric tons (mmt) and projected exports of 24.5 mmt. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), this exerts downward pressure on prices, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam. Long-grain rice prices have fallen 29% year-on-year (YoY) to USD 400 per metric ton (mt) on May-25. Rising output in Mercosur countries like Brazil is intensifying competition, with Uruguay’s rice export prices dropping from USD 800/mt in Oct-24 to USD 582/mt in May-25. Indonesia’s decision to slash 2025 rice imports to under 1 mmt after leading global imports in 2024 at 4.7 mmt will further weigh on prices. In the United States (US), long-grain rice exports fell 21% YoY to 2.29 mmt in the first nine months of the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) amid Mercosur competition in Latin American markets, driving export prices down 12% YoY to USD 650/mt and tightening processors’ margins, while domestic farmgate prices remain steady.

Bangladesh

Farmers Shift from Rice to Maize in Nilphamari and Rangpur Amid Higher Profitability and Feed Demand

While Boro rice cultivation remains stable in regions like Nilphamari at around 81 thousand hectares (ha), there is a notable shift from rice to maize due to better profitability, higher demand (from poultry and feed industries), and technological improvements. Farmers in northern Bangladesh are increasingly converting rice and wheat fields to maize, especially in Nilphamari and Rangpur. Despite stable rice acreage in some areas, this trend signals a growing preference for maize over traditional staples like rice, which could gradually impact rice production in the medium to long term if the shift continues.

Brazil

Rio Grande do Sul Nears Completion of Rice Harvest

As of May 15, 97.02% of the rice harvest in Rio Grande do Sul has been completed, covering 941,371 ha out of the 970,194 ha planted. Some regions like the External Coastal Plain, have been harvested fully. Despite high productivity, the rice sector is under economic pressure, facing tight profit margins due to high production costs and falling sales prices. Consumers benefit from lower rice prices at USD 2.84 to 3.55 per 5 kilograms (kg), but producers struggle with profitability. Industry experts stress the urgent need for strategic commercial management and value-added solutions to ensure the economic sustainability of the production chain even during strong harvest years.

Q1-2025 Rice Imports Declined 16% YoY as Production Increased 14.8%

In Q1-2025, Brazil's rice imports dropped by 16% YoY, mainly due to reduced purchases from Thailand, while exports rose by 7% YoY. Rice production is forecast to grow by 14.8% YoY, reaching 12.1 mmt, driven by attractive planting prices and expanded cultivation area. However, flooding in Paraná has caused an 11% reduction in national harvest volumes. Despite this, the high domestic supply and lower imports have pressured prices downward. Irrigated paddy rice prices have fallen by 38% compared to May-24, and retail prices have also declined.

Indonesia

Indonesia Accelerated Rice Planting in Key Provinces, Targeting Previously Delayed Areas in Central Java

The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture is accelerating rice planting nationwide through coordinated efforts between central and regional authorities, focusing on key provinces such as Central Java and Banten. On May 17, 2025, the Director General of Agricultural Infrastructure and Facilities oversaw planting activities in Dempelrejo Village, Ngampel District, Kendal Regency, Central Java, where 85 ha of previously land with delayed planting due to limited machinery and water access are now being cultivated as part of the acceleration program.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W21 2024 to W21 2025) 

India

In W21, India’s wholesale rice prices fell 1.54% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.64/kg, marking a 3.03% YoY decline. This weekly price drop is due to ample domestic supplies resulting from strong procurement efforts by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and a robust 2024/25 Rabi harvest, which boosted overall stock levels. Furthermore, weak export demand, particularly for non-basmati rice, continued suppressing price growth due to ongoing export restrictions and high tariffs imposed by key importing countries. Increased production and subdued international interest have kept prices under pressure despite steady domestic consumption.

Vietnam

In W21, Vietnamese rice prices rose by 1.85% WoW and MoM, reaching USD 0.55/kg. This modest price increase was driven by steady domestic demand and limited fresh supply as the peak harvest period in key rice-growing regions tapered off. Moreover, stronger export inquiries from traditional markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia helped support prices. However, competition from major exporters like Thailand and India kept the overall price rise moderate despite the positive market sentiment.

United States

In W21, US rice prices remained steady WoW and MoM at USD 0.77/kg but fell 3.75% YoY. The YoY decline was due to improved production conditions in key rice-growing states such as Arkansas and California, which boosted domestic supply and eased upward price pressures. Unlike in 2024, when droughts and transportation disruptions along the Mississippi River constrained logistics and raised costs, the 2025 season experienced fewer such challenges, enhancing supply chain efficiency. Furthermore, competition from major exporters like Vietnam and India, who offered rice at more competitive prices, weakened US export demand. This combination of increased domestic supply and softer international demand contributed to the overall YoY price decline despite stable consumption within the US market.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Destinations and Tailor Product Offerings

The US, Uruguay, and Thailand should intensify efforts to diversify their export destinations beyond traditional large buyers like Indonesia and the Philippines, whose import volumes will decline in 2025. Target emerging or underpenetrated markets such as West Africa, East Africa, and the Caribbean, where rice consumption increased due to population growth and dietary shifts. Exporters should also tailor product offerings by adjusting grain type, including long-grain vs. parboiled, and branding strategies to match consumer preferences and price sensitivities in these markets. Expanding into diversified export destinations reduces dependence on a few large buyers and provides a buffer against sudden shifts in demand. Customizing products to local needs helps increase competitiveness and improves the chances of capturing market share in regions less saturated by major suppliers like India or Vietnam.

Promote Domestic Value-Addition and Branding Initiatives

Rice-producing countries experiencing price pressures and surplus supply, including Brazil, India, and Vietnam, should promote domestic value-added processing by supporting investments in advanced milling, packaging technologies, and product innovation (e.g., rice snacks, instant rice meals, and rice-based flour). Initiatives can include branding campaigns for domestic and export markets, government-supported food fairs, and technical support for small and medium processors to enhance product quality and shelf appeal. Creating higher-value products absorbs surplus raw rice, improves processor and farmer profit margins, and reduces dependence on volatile bulk grain exports. Branded, value-added products can tap into premium consumer segments domestically and abroad, especially in urban markets and health-conscious demographics, ensuring more stable revenue streams across the value chain.

Implement Risk-Sharing Mechanisms for Farmers Facing Margin Squeeze

Governments, cooperatives, and agribusinesses in Brazil, India, and the US should introduce and expand risk-sharing models to protect farmers when market prices fall despite high productivity. They can implement shared post-harvest facilities, coordinate group input purchases to lower costs, launch crop insurance schemes, and establish cooperative marketing systems to reduce dependence on volatile spot markets. These mechanisms have already lowered per-unit production costs, expanded farmers' access to better pricing and marketing channels, and strengthened farm-level resilience. This approach is critical under current conditions, where falling rice prices are squeezing margins despite strong harvests. These strategies discourage farmers from rapidly shifting to alternative crops like maize solely for profitability, thereby supporting long-term food security and maintaining a balanced approach to crop diversification.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Link, Republika, UkrAgroConsult