In W26 in the barley landscape, farmers in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions in Ukraine started harvesting winter crops, including barley, wheat, and peas. The total harvested area reached 66.2 thousand ha, with a yield of 3,280kg/ha. So far, the grain harvest has amounted to 216.9 thousand mt, with winter barley accounting for 205.5 thousand mt. The harvested area for winter barley reached 61.5 thousand ha, with the yield averaging 3,350kg/ha. The adverse weather conditions in the southern region of Ukraine have led to difficulties in sowing barley, resulting in lower-quality grain during the initial harvest. The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council suggests that this situation is likely to contribute to an increase in barley prices. However, experts also anticipate a temporary decline in demand and prices as the harvest progresses. The indicative price for barley in Ukraine is currently USD 130/mt, and it is expected to rise to USD 145/mt in the near future due to limited supply until after July 15. Experts predict that July will be a highly volatile and unfavorable month for barley sales, with the risk of prices dropping to USD 125/mt. However, they anticipate a price recovery starting in Aug-23, with prices potentially reaching at least USD 190-200/mt and even higher in Dec-23. UkrAgroConsult indicates that due to poor export logistics, Ukrainian barley shipments in the second half of the 2022/23 season, from Feb-23 to Jun-23, were unusually big compared to average, with monthly exports ranging from 180-230 thousand mt. Although China increased its Ukrainian barley imports in the last few months, China still remains the fourth largest importer, behind Turkey and the EU.
In the Russian barley market, factors leading to price increases include the continuation of moisture-deficient conditions in Central Europe and Ukraine, as well as increased demand from Saudi Arabia due to lower supplies from Australia and other countries. Additionally, the growth of the US Dollar contributed to price increases. On the other hand, factors leading to lower prices in the Russian barley market include the start of the harvesting campaign, which has shown positive yields in several regions of the Southern Federal District and the North Caucasus Federal District. Overall, the barley market trends are similar to wheat, but the gap between actual prices and estimated parity prices is higher. The growth of shipments in the Azov-Black Sea region and other regions, along with the farmer's decision to sell or hold sales, are likely to influence trade dynamics. A moderate growth in quotations is expected in the first half of Jul-23.
French farmers are projected to harvest approximately 9.1 mmt of winter barley in 2023, an increase of 7.3% YoY, which surpasses the average yield from 2018 to 2022 by 11.7%. Experts attribute this growth to an expected rise in average yield/ha by 0.29 mt to 6.83 mt and an expansion in the crop area by 2.9% to 1.33 million ha. These factors indicate a positive outlook for the winter barley harvest in France. Lastly, the barley crop planting in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is currently underway, with 75% of the total cultivation area of 35.9 thousand ha already completed. All barley crops are currently in the vegetative development stage. In the Emater/RS-Ascar de Erechim administrative region, the area dedicated to barley cultivation is primarily intended for malt production for the brewing industry. As of now, 90% of this designated area has been planted, and the weather conditions have been favorable, facilitating the emergence and initial growth of the crops.
