W46 Sunflower Update: Global Sunflower Forecast Revised Upward, India's Imports Surge, and Harvest Updates from Russia and France

USDA Forecasts Rise in Harvest and Oilseed Reserves, Meanwhile, India's Imports Surge

In W46 in the sunflower oil landscape, in its Nov-23 report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the forecast for global sunflower harvest for 2023/24 by 560 thousand metric tons (mt) to 56.98 million metric tons (mmt), with oilseed reserves also raised by 290 thousand mt to 4.1 mmt. Global sunflower seed exports for the season are expected to reach 3.09 mmt. Meanwhile, sunflower production in Ukraine for the 2023/24 season is raised by 500 thousand mt to 14.5 mmt, surpassing the previous season's 12.2 mmt. With improved production prospects, analysts also raised the forecast for Ukrainian oil reserves to 595 thousand tons, up from the Oct-23 estimate of 275 thousand mt but still lower than the 2022/23 season (815 thousand mt).

India's sunflower oil imports surged by 54% in the 2022/23 period, reaching record highs due to increased consumption and favorable pricing compared to rival soybean oil. The significant purchase may contribute to a decline in reserves among Black Sea countries that produce sunflower oil. As of October 31, sunflower oil imports to India had risen to 3 mmt. However, India is set to decrease its vegetable oil imports by 700 thousand mt in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) compared to the previous year, dropping from 16.9 mmt to 16.2 mmt. This reduction is attributed to substantial domestic reserves accumulated through active purchases in the last agricultural season for sunflower, palm, and soybean oils. The overall estimated domestic oilseed production is anticipated to be 25.2 mmt, representing a 2.8% increase year-on-year (YoY), with a significant portion likely coming from sunflower oil.

Sunflower Harvest Updates in Russia

In Russia's Orenburg region, sunflower harvesting continues on farms. As of November 13, 987.1 thousand hectares (ha) were threshed, the gross harvest amounted to 1207.4 thousand mt, and the average yield was 1.22 mt/ha. The Abdulinsky municipal district farms had the highest yield at 1.81 mt/ha, followed by Asekeyevsky at 1.73 mt/ha, Kurmanaevsky at 1.67 mt/ha, Grachevsky at 1.65 mt/ha, and Kvarkensky at 1.60 mt/ha. Meanwhile, in the Rostov region, the area sown with sunflower seeds has increased from 16% in 2022 to 40% in 2023. Farmers aim to further expand the area sown with domestic sunflower seeds to reach 80% in 2024. The shift towards domestic seeds is a measure to enhance food security in the region.

France Achieves Highest Seed Harvest Since 1990s

The sunflower seed harvest for the current season in France has surged to 2.1 mmt, marking the highest production since the 1990s. This represents a 19% YoY increase and a remarkable 37% rise compared to the five-year average. The bumper harvest is attributed to the expansion of the planted area to 0.83 million ha and high yields, averaging 2.58 mt/ha.