1. Weekly News

Brazil

Conab Launches Third Monitoring Survey for 2024/25 Grain Harvest in Minas Gerais, Focusing on First-Harvest Crops and Productivity Estimates

The National Supply Company (Conab) has initiated its third Monitoring Survey for the 2024/25 grain harvest in Minas Gerais, focusing on crop area, planting progress, development stages, and climate impacts of first-harvest crops, such as peanuts, cotton, rice, beans, corn, and soybeans. Field activities until November 23 involve collaboration with cooperatives, technical companies, and rural planning groups. Part of a broader national study, the survey integrates satellite data and producer input to estimate productivity. Preliminary Oct-24 data forecasts that Minas Gerais will produce 17.29 million metric tons (mmt) of grains from 4.29 million hectares (ha), with an average yield of 4,031 kilograms (kg) per ha. Updated results will be released on December 12, 2024.

China

China's Agricultural Trade with BRI Countries Sees Peanuts Imports Decline 22.4% YoY in 2024

From Jan-24 to Sep-24, China's agricultural product trade with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries showed a slight increase in exports and a reduced decline in imports. Notably, peanut imports from these countries fell by 22.4% year-on-year (YoY), totaling USD 500 million. This decline is part of a broader trend where imports of key agricultural products such as vegetable oils and aquatic products also saw reductions. Conversely, imports of oilseeds, including peanut oil, have generally experienced positive growth in recent years, reflecting shifts in commodity demands across regions.

Gambia

Farmers in Gambia's Jokadou District Report Poor Peanut Harvest in 2024, Call for Government Support

Farmers in the Jokadou District of the Gambia's North Bank Region have reported poor peanut harvests in the 2024 season, urging government intervention. The Chief of Jokadu District emphasized the importance of farming to local livelihoods and expressed concern about the impact of the poor harvest. In response, the Agriculture Minister acknowledged the issue and assured farmers that the government was investigating the situation and highlighted government support through fertilizer, tractors, and millet distribution to aid farmers. Despite challenges with peanuts, overall farming in Gambia has seen an increase in land cultivated this year. Furthermore, the President promised to address farmers' concerns and announced plans for infrastructure improvements, including road construction projects in the region.

United States

Mississippi's 2024 Peanut Harvest Nears Completion with Increased Acreage and Mixed Yields

Mississippi's peanut harvest for 2024 is nearing completion, with 91% of the crop dug and 76% harvested by late Oct-24. Despite some variability in yields due to uneven rainfall, the state's peanut acreage increased 30% YoY to 25,500 acres, driven by stronger prices than cotton, corn, and soybeans. While overall yields are forecasted to match last year's 4,000 pounds (lbs) per acre, dry conditions in certain areas may lead to slightly lower yields and reduced quality. United States (US) peanut production is expected to rise, with prices projected to remain stable or decline slightly, potentially affecting contract offers for producers in 2025.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Peanut Pricing Important Exporters (W47 2023 to W47 2024)

India

India's peanut prices dropped to USD 0.66/kg in W47, reflecting a 2.94% decrease week-on-week (WoW) and a 14.29% decline YoY. Following a consistent downward trend, this marks the lowest price level in five years. Despite a slight recovery of USD 10 per metric ton (mt) in the domestic market, further price reductions appear limited. However, rising demand from Indonesia has provided some relief, with exporters offering peanuts at 5 to 6% below market prices to maintain competitiveness. This price reduction has sparked increased buying interest from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, offering some support to the market.

United States

In W47, US peanut prices remained stable at USD 0.54/kg, though they dropped by 28% compared to last year. Mississippi's 2024 peanut harvest is almost complete, with 91% of the crop dug and 76% harvested by late Oct-24. While yields are expected to match last year, some variability is anticipated due to uneven rainfall, with dry conditions potentially lowering yields and quality. As US production rises, peanut prices will likely remain stable or decline slightly, which could impact future contract negotiations for producers in 2025.

Brazil

In W47, Brazil's peanut prices slightly increased to USD 3.19/kg, reflecting a 0.31% WoW and a 0.95% month-on-month (MoM) rise. However, with a record peanut production of 832,300 mt expected for the 2024/25 season—a 40.6% increase from the previous harvest—downward price pressure is possible in the medium to long term. This production surge could lead to a supply surplus, potentially outstripping domestic and international demand. Despite this, favorable conditions and strong demand encourage crop diversification into peanuts. However, challenges such as weed resistance and pest management remain key factors affecting Brazil's agricultural competitiveness.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Expand Market Diversification and Trade Partnerships

To counter the decline in peanut imports in key markets like China and stabilize demand, exporters should target emerging markets with growing peanut consumption, such as Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines). Strengthening trade relationships in these regions through competitive pricing strategies and promotional activities can offset demand declines in traditional markets. Additionally, exploring opportunities to export peanut oil to regions experiencing increased oilseed imports can further enhance market reach.

Invest in Yield Optimization and Climate-Resilient Practices

Governments and agricultural cooperatives in regions like Minas Gerais and Mississippi should prioritize investments in climate-resilient farming practices to mitigate the impact of variable weather on peanut yields. Strategies include promoting precision farming, enhancing irrigation infrastructure, and introducing pest-resistant peanut varieties. Such measures will improve yield stability and quality, ensuring competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.

Leverage Domestic and International Surpluses for Value-Added Products

With record peanut production expected in Brazil and stable output in the US, stakeholders should focus on processing peanuts into high-value products such as peanut oil, butter, and snacks. Expanding processing capacities and marketing these products domestically and abroad can create new revenue streams, alleviate surplus pressures, and cater to evolving consumer demands for processed peanut goods.

Sources: Portal Do Agronegocio, Foodmate, the Point, Farm Progress, Mundus Agri