W50: Weekly Dairy Update

Milk

EU: The Increasingly Intensive Dairy Sector; What Will Happen in the Next Decade?

Over the years, EU milk production has become highly intensified and specialized. In 2020, around 80% of milk in the EU was produced in intensive systems (more than 1.4 livestock units per hectare), while more than 93% came from specialized farms, with a lower proportion in the countries of the eastern EU (for example, in the Czech Republic 64%, Slovakia 67%, Hungary 76% and Poland 88%), according to the European Commission's medium-term forecast report for the agricultural sectors.

Ireland: Teagasc Forecasts Milk Prices to Fall by 15% In 2023

A resumption in global milk production will dampen demand growth and drive down milk prices by 15% in 2023, Teasgasc has forecast. Teagasc outlined in the report that 2022 had been a challenging year for dairy farming with higher-than-before input costs experienced by farmers. It also highlighted the impact of the sharp cost inflation in the general economy which has stemmed from the war in Ukraine. However, specific to the dairy sector, Teagasc said these factors were balanced out by unprecedented milk prices that dairy farmers had received. Although the average dairy farm experienced no growth in milk production, total production costs on a per-liter basis were estimated to have increased by about 30% in 2022 relative to 2021. Although the average dairy farm experienced no growth in milk production, total production costs on a per-liter basis were estimated to have increased by about 30% in 2022 relative to 2021. However, on average, milk production costs were about 8c/L (30%) higher in 2022. Teagasc anticipates that in 2023 the annual average milk price will fall by 15% relative to the 2022 level. This is based on the assumption that normal weather conditions will prevail in 2023.

Ireland: Ministers Urged to Postpone Cow Banding Proposal Under Nitrates Action Programme

The Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers’ Association (ICMSA) has called for indefinite postponement of the cow banding proposal for 2023 under the Nitrates Action Programme (NAP). ICMSA president, Pat McCormack, has repeated his call for both the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage, Darragh O’Brien, and the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Charlie McConalogue to postpone the proposal. With just weeks until 2023, McCormack claimed that neither the department nor farmers are remotely prepared to implement the new regime in 2023 and that pushing ahead with the plans will result in “utter chaos”. Currently, the excretion rate for all dairy cows is 89kg of organic nitrogen (N)/cow. But under the proposed NAP revisions, higher-yielding cows will be given a higher level of N excretion due to their larger feed intake requirements. The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) is consulting the industry on the establishment of three tiers of excretion bands. McCormack said that any such change in nitrates regulations should be communicated to farmers in the previous springtime to the proposed introduction, so farmers could alter their breeding strategy.

Poland: Dairy Products Market on 4/12/2022

The selling price of skimmed milk powder amounted to USD 3.54/kg (PLN 15.66) and was lower by 7% than a week earlier and by 10.5% than a month ago. Behind Whole milk powder was USD 5.25/kg (PLN 23.20),1% more than in the previous week and 3% more than in the previous month. Compared to last year's quotations, SMP was more expensive by 13%, and PMP by 49.5%. According to the Chicago Stock Exchange in the quotation of December 2, 2022, the price of skimmed milk powder amounted to USD 3,236/MT and was 1% lower than a week earlier and 0.3% lower than a month ago. Compared to last year's quotations, SMP was 6% cheaper.

US: Wisconsin Still Losing Dairy Herds, but Not Cows or Production

The National Ag Statistics Service says the dairy state has 6,140 licensed dairy herds as of December 1st compared to 6,572 a year ago. Wisconsin has had 432 fewer dairy farms over 12 months and 393 fewer since the first of the year. The number of cows hasn’t changed. The most recently available statistics for October show Wisconsin had 1.271M dairy cattle compared to 1.278M in October of 2021. Clark County remains far and away the county with the most dairy herds at 667, followed by neighboring Marathon County with 387 herds. There are no more dairy cows in Florence and Oneida counties, and Milwaukee County is down to just one remaining herd. Milk production increased in Wisconsin during October, totaling USD 3.26B, up 1% from last October. Wisconsin has kept statistics on milk cows since 1933. Back then, Wisconsin had almost twice as many cows with 2.11M. Milk production per cow has dramatically changed from USD 6,266.25/cow annually in 1933 to USD 30,336.46/cow last year. The number of licensed herds has been tracked since August of 2003 when there were 16,264 herds in Wisconsin compared to 6,140 now.

US: Dairy Exports Increase in October for Seventh Consecutive Month

The 10-month figure stood at USD 8.08B already an annual record, beating the 12-month total of USD 7.70B set in 2021 as a result of increased high-value cheese and butter exports as well as higher dairy prices in general. US October gains were broadly based on most major products including skim milk powder, whey, cheese, and butter. Exports of skimmed milk powder grew by 11% (+6,975 tons), ending 11 consecutive months of deficit compared to the previous year. Exports to Mexico increased by 37%, the second consecutive month of double-digit increases. US whey exports increased by 17%, with gains in all product categories: dehydrated whey, whey protein concentrate (WPC), modified whey, and WPC80+. For WPC80+, it was the first annual increase since April 2022. A sharp reduction in exports to China has limited WPC80+ exports from the US for the full year, but data shows volumes are recovering as supply increases and prices go down.

Ukraine: Dairy Farms Predominate Among Family Farms in Lviv Region

According to the Department of Agro-Industrial Development of the Lviv Regional State Administration report, family farms are mainly registered by sole proprietors who have up to 5 cows at the start. Subsequently, the herd is increased to 10-50 cows and proposals to create their milk processing are considered. Thus, in 2020−2022, 48 family farms were registered in the dairy industry. The intensive development of the business of family farms is evidenced by their confident positive dynamics of cattle herd growth. Thus, as of October 1, according to statistics, the number of cows in small-scale farms is 798 - 33% more than last year. For comparison: in households, the number of livestock decreased by almost 11% over the last year.

Russia: In Primorsky Krai, Milk Production Increased by 13% Over the Year

Milk production in Primorsky Krai in 2022 increased by almost 13% compared to 2021, the press service of the presidential envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District reported on Saturday. "The growth of milk production is observed in the peasant farms of the Primorsky Territory, almost 13% compared to last year. This year, milk production in Primorye will amount to almost 127K MT, which will saturate the market with high-quality dairy products at an affordable price," the statement said. The production growth is associated with an increase in the productivity of cows to 7.2K liters of milk per head, which is 2.5% higher than in 2021. This figure is the highest in the Far East. In the farms of the region, the conditions for keeping livestock are improving, and balanced diets for feeding animals are being introduced. Farmers are provided with state support for technical modernization, reimbursement of costs for forage equipment, and grants for the creation of farms.

Russia: The Head of the Ministry of Agriculture Explained the Reduction in the Number of Cows

The head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Dmitry Patrushev, called a decrease in beef consumption a global trend, a REGNUM correspondent reported on December 14. This affects the volume of cattle production and the ministry will put up an additional USD 0.039B for dairy production in 2023. By 2022, the amount of support for the dairy industry will be about USD 770M, and by 2023, about USD 830M.

Turkey: Critical Reduction in the Amount of Collected Cow Milk

Milk and Dairy Products Production statistics of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) for October 2022 have been published. 725,868MT of cow's milk was collected by commercial dairy enterprises. The amount of cow's milk collected by commercial dairy enterprises decreased by 9.6% in October compared to the same month of the previous year and decreased by 3.3% YoY in the January-October period. In October, compared to the same month of the previous year, butter production decreased by 27.1%, drinking milk production decreased by 24.1%, ayran production decreased by 13.3%, cow cheese production decreased by 5.4%, and yogurt production decreased by 3.9%. In the January-October period, butter production increased by 19.1%, ayran production by 8.1%, and yogurt production by 3.2% compared to the same period of the previous year; cow cheese production decreased by 5.1%, and drinking milk production decreased by 3.3%.

Thailand: Survival of Thai Dairy Farmers

As a result of war and inflation, the cost of raw milk production has risen to the point that many dairy farmers can't afford to bear the cost and finally decide to quit their careers. From the media page, the amount of cow's milk production in 2022, on average, has decreased by 127MT/day compared to 2021, but the actual situation now has a large number of farms that have stopped raising. The milk supply has decreased by more than 700MT/day. The increase in raw material costs for concentrates and roughage throughout 2022 has finally become a crisis for dairy farming, as dairy farming accounts for no less than 65% of the total cost of production in feed. Many farmers have limited space to produce roughage for use on farms. It is necessary to purchase additional roughage from off-farm. There is also a problem with foot-and-mouth disease, lumpy skin disease, mastitis causing the milk production of cows to decrease and the overall quality of raw milk to be lower. It also causes cows to have problems with their reproductive system. As a result, the income decreased and it was not worth farming.

South Korea: 101 South Korean Dairy Cows Go to Nepal

Based on ODA support from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and Heifer Korea, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs is the representative of the international development organization Heifer Korea (Heifer Korea), an international development organization. Lee Hye-won) recently announced that they will transport Korean-style cow seeds (semen for artificial insemination) and 101 cows to Nepal by air on December 22nd. This is the first time that Korean dairy cows and dairy cows have gone abroad. This international development cooperation project (ODA) is jointly supported by the government and the private sector. After the Korean War, Korea, which received cows and rebuilt its dairy industry with the help of Heper International and the international community, now supports Nepal, which needs help, to become a donor country. It is an opportunity to confirm that you have changed.

Butter

Poland: Dairy Products Market on 4/12/2022

Dairy plants monitored as part of the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development on November 28 to December 4, 2022, sold butter in blocks of USD 6.92/kg (PLN 30.57/kg), which is 2% cheaper than the week before and 5% than a month ago. Packaged butter was sold at USD 6.91/kg (PLN 30.82), which is 2% cheaper than in the previous week and 8% cheaper than a month earlier. The price of butter in blocks was higher than a year ago by 18%, and packaged butter by 15%. According to the Chicago Stock Exchange in the quotation of December 2, 2022, the price of butter amounted to USD 6,393/MT, which is 2% lower than a week ago, but 5% higher than a month earlier. Compared to last year's prices, butter was 45% more expensive.

Turkey: Butter Output Down by More Than 27% YoY

The Turkish Statistical Institute reported that butter output was down more than 27% YoY to some 6,000MT, while yogurt production dropped by 3.9% to 89,000MT. Butter production grew 19% in January-October to 82,000MT and yogurt output grew 3.2% from the same period of 2021 to 978,000MT.

Cheese

Poland: Dairy Products Market on 4/12/2022

On November 28 to December 4, 2022, domestic producers sold Edamski cheese at USD 5.59/kg (PLN 24.72), which is 2% cheaper than a week and a month earlier. Gouda cheese was paid USD 5.80/kg (PLN 25.65), which is 0.5% more than a week earlier, but 1% less than a month ago. Compared to last year's prices, Edam cheese was 39% more expensive, and Gouda cheese was 35% more. The WoW price of Cheddar cheese decreased by 2% to USD 4,630/MT. According to the Chicago Stock Exchange in the quotation of December 2, 2022, the recorded price level was 4.5% higher than a month ago and 13% higher than a year earlier.