W50: Weekly Sunflower Update
Global
Vegetable Oil Quotes Are Recovering Amid Rising Oil Prices and Pace of Imports Into India
According to the Vegetable Oil Industry Association of India (SEA), the country's imports of vegetable oils increased by 11% MoM to 1.55MMT in November. In particular, imports of palm oil increased by 29% to 1.14MMT and those of sunflower oil by 9% to 0.16MMT, while imports of soybeans decreased by 31% to 0.23MMT. Additionally, the cost of purchasing Ukrainian sunflower oil remains low at USD 1,000–1,050/MT delivered to the port, USD 1,120/MT DAP in Poland, and USD 1,150–1,200/MT DAP in Bulgaria. Due to power outages, the majority of factories have not started production again, so there are still few options available.
The current agricultural year's forecast for the production of oilseeds worldwide has been reduced by 1.2MMT, to 644.4MMT, by the US Department of Agriculture. The agency predicted that an increase in soybean production would only partially compensate for the decline in estimates for the collection of sunflower seeds, rapeseed, cotton, and palm kernels. The forecast for the global production of sunflower seed products has been reduced as a result of the harvesting of this crop in the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
Europe
By 2032, average oilseed yields are expected to increase in the EU even though the area for oilseed crops is predicted to decrease (albeit without surpassing historical record yields). Therefore, it is anticipated that total EU oilseed production would climb to 32.9MMT in 2032 from 30.2MMT in 2020–2022, with increases anticipated in the production of rapeseed, sunflower, and soya beans of 2.8%, 14.3%, and 33.3%, respectively. The production of pulses is predicted to rise by 2.4MMT and reach 6.7MMT in 2032 because of an increased area and rising yields. Up until 2032, the EU is anticipated to continue to be a net importer of oilseeds and protein-producing plants. However, growth is anticipated to slow, with net imports of oilseeds anticipated to fall from an average of 20.0 MMT in 2020–2022 to 17.5 MMT in 2032.
Sunflower Harvest in the EU Decreased by 10%
According to the most recent projections made by European Commission experts, despite an increase in the area sown with the oilseed crop by about 18% to a record 5.1M hectares, the member states of the European Union harvested 9.3MMT of sunflower in 2022, which is 10% less than the amount harvested in 2021. The decrease in harvest is mainly due to the drought in the EU, which reduced sunflower yields by 18% compared to last year and entirely wiped out some of the fields. According to analysts, sunflower is still viewed as an alternative crop in several EU countries in order to increase crop rotation and reduce hazards.
War Dries up Europe’s Access to Vegetable Oil
80% of the world's exports of sunflower oil come from Russia and Ukraine. In 2021/22, the two countries gathered a record amount of oilseed, with production increasing 18% year over year. However, due to issues associated with the war, sunflower oil exports to Europe from Ukraine decreased by 15%, while those from Russia decreased by 27%, partly as a result of floating export duty. The largest oilseed crop produced in Ukraine is sunflower. It is largely cultivated in the heavily combative southeast of Ukraine, which is currently involved in the war. About one-quarter of the crop is typically planted in the Russian-occupied oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizh, and Kherson. Because of this, farmers only planted 11.6M acres of the oilseed in 2022/23 as opposed to 16M acres before the war.
Ukraine
Ukraine Corn Production Declines While Wheat and Sunflower Seed Forecasts Look Weak
The USDA predicts output declines of 16% for corn, 23% for wheat, and 31% for sunflower seed in Ukraine. Due to the Russian invasion and unusual weather conditions, such as a scorching drought in the summer and heavy rains this autumn, Ukrainian farmers have had a very difficult year. According to the USDA, some farmers are experiencing increasing financial difficulties as a result of direct and indirect losses brought on by the armed conflict.
98% Of the Planted Sunflower Area Has Been Harvested
As of W50, 98% of the sunflower planted area had been harvested, for a total of 4.6M hectares and yielding 10MMT of seeds at a yield of 21.8 cents per hectare.
Russia
Grain Stocks in Agricultural Organizations of the Russian Federation in November Increased by 34.2%
At the end of November, grain stocks in Russian agricultural organizations were 39.4MMT, a 34.2% YoY increase from 2021. At the end of November, oilseed inventories had climbed by 13.6% YoY to 6.9MMT. Stock levels of sunflowers dropped concurrently by 7.8% YoY to 2.9MMT.
Argentina
Domestic Market With Prices Between Stable and Bearish Among the Main Grains
The domestic market's December 15 session showed a small improvement in price among main grains. Sunflower prices remained unchanged despite the fact that fewer people were purchasing them. As a result, the purchase offers for the oilseed that was available as well as for delivery between January and March of the following year once again reached USD 430/MT, with no daily variations.
Hungary
The Hungarian Government Decided to Keep Preferential Prices for Basic Products Until April 30
In order to support the underprivileged in the face of continuous EU sanctions and rising inflation, the Hungarian government has agreed to maintain the restriction on pricing for basic commodities until April 30. Since February, Hungary has had fixed prices in place for a number of food items, including eggs, potatoes, sugar, wheat flour, sunflower oil, and chicken meat.
Canada
Canada’s Sunflower Seed Production Increases in 2022
Canada is expected to produce 84,054MT of sunflower seeds in 2022, a 3% increase over 81,749MT in 2021. The production in 2022 is somewhat higher than the three-year average of 81,983 MT. In Canada, sunflowers are mostly farmed in Manitoba, with some production also occurring in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
South Africa
South African Sunflower Harvest Forecast for the 2022 Season
The 9th South African sunflower seed production forecast for the 2022 season released at the end of November estimates a total harvest volume of 845,550MT, unchanged from the previous estimate in October.
