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2022 End-of-Year Report

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2022 was an eventful and demanding year for the agricultural sector. Many sectors were still finding their feet after the challenges posed by COVID-19 in the previous two years and the subsequent supply chain crisis from the latter parts of 2021 when they were hit with an unprecedented increase in input costs. In only the second month of the year, the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered an exponential increase in global food, fertilizer, and energy costs, adding to an already bullish trend since mid-2021. The ripple effect of the conflict led to record inflation, exorbitant input costs, shortages of major staples, and rash policymaking. Amidst elevated production costs, producers had to deal with adverse weather conditions and the effects of climate change. Looking forward to 2023, producers will still face an unpredictable economic climate. The Russia-Ukraine war is still ongoing, and many logistical bottlenecks remain in the supply chain. A volatile geopolitical landscape could lead to trade disputes and regulations, impacting agricultural trade. Producers also have to contend with more weather anomalies brought on by the La Niña phenomenon. However, 2023 will also bring new opportunities for innovative solutions and developing robust supply chains. Consumers’ emphasis on healthy and sustainable eating, which was pushed to the background by high living costs, could again gain traction if living costs continue to decline.

Table of contents

Changes in Markets and Climate (Page 3)

Part I - Production and Climate Issues (Page 5)

1.1 A Decrease in Blueberry Production in North America Pushed Prices Up

1.2 China Falls Far Short of Ambitious Macadamia Production Targets

1.3 Climate Change and Late Frosts Threaten Iran’s Pistachio Production

1.4 US Beef Production to Hit a Record, Driven by a Drought-Fueled Cattle Slaughter

1.5 US Tomato Industry Suffers a Year of Dryness

1.6 Shortages of Processed Potato in APAC and Europe Will Continue in 2023

1.7 Olive Oil Production Is Forecasted Down by 23% in the 2022/23 Marketing Year

1.8 Increasing Gas and Energy Prices Will Stifle Oilseed Crushing in Europe, Ukraine, and Elsewhere

Part II - Geopolitical Environment and Trade Regulations (Page 21)

2.1 Extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative Eases Grain Trade in Ukraine

2.2 Indonesian Pineapple Prices Expected to Increase after Chinese Market Access

2.3 Anti-Dumping Tariffs Impede SA and Brazilian Lemon Juice Shipments to the US

2.4 Ethiopia Sesame Seeds: A Growing Market but Ongoing Civil War May Dampen Growth Efforts

Part III - Demand Trends (Page 29)

3.1 World Nut Demand Dwindles Amid Economic Uncertainty

3.2 US Imports of Frozen Shrimp Decline YoY For First Time in Years

3.3 Demand for Non-Alcoholic Beer Rises Amid Shifting Consumer Trends

3.4 China’s Soymeal Consumption & Imports and Efforts To Cut Down Its Heavy Reliance on Animal Feed

Part IV - Export Trends (Page 39)

4.1 Peru’s Next Grape Season Projected for a Record Volume due to Varietal Diversification

4.2 Exports of Peruvian Mango Expected to Grow by 25% in the 2022/23 Season

4.3 The Rise of Egyptian Grape Exports in 2022, Amidst High Inflation and Increased Production Costs

4.4 South Korean Seafood Export Volume Climbs 26% YoY in Jan-Nov 2022

Part V - Price Trends (Page 47)

5.1 Lower Quantities of Moroccan Clementine Pressures Prices Up

5.2 Oversupply of Almonds Keeps Prices at Decade Lows

5.3 Global Meat Prices Reached Record Highs by Mid-2022, But Are Set to End the Year in a Downward Trend

5.4 FCOJ Prices Rally Amid Record Low Orange Crop in Florida

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