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Rabobank experts raised the forecast for wheat production and lowered the estimate for the canola crop in Australia

Published Oct 23, 2024

Tridge summary

Rabobank predicts a slight increase in Australia's winter crop harvest for 2024/25, reaching 47.1 million tons, which is 1% higher than the previous season but still 13% below the five-year average. The forecast includes a decrease in canola production due to both reduced sowing areas and unfavorable weather conditions, with the official harvest forecast at 5.5 million tons but local analysts estimating 5 million tons. Port prices for Australian premium white wheat are expected to range from 320-360 AUD/t ($211-238/t) in late 2024 and H1 2025, while feed barley prices are expected to be 290-320 AUD/t ($191-211/t). Non-GMO canola prices for H1 2025 are projected to be 730-780 AUD/t ($482-515/t), and GMO canola prices will be 8-12% lower. Canola prices have surged due to downgraded production forecasts in Australia, leading to increased demand for vegetable oils and potential alternative sources as the EU imposes duties on oil crop imports from Russia and Belarus.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to the forecast of Rabobank, despite unfavorable weather conditions in some major grain-growing regions, the harvest of winter crops in Australia in 2024/25 MR will grow compared to the previous season by 1% or 0.5 million tons to 47.1 million tons, which is 13 % will be inferior to the 5-year average. So, compared to the previous season, in 2024 MR the harvest will change: The reason for the decrease in canola production will be not only a reduction in the area sown, but also unfavorable weather conditions. We will remind that the official harvest forecast is 5.5 million tons, although local analysts estimate it at 5 million tons. According to experts, prices for Australian premium white wheat in ports will be 320-360 AUD/t ($211-238/t) in late 2024 and in the first half of 2025. Prices for feed barley in ports will be 290-320 AUD/t ($191-211/t), and the discount for malting barley will be minimal, if at all, compared to wheat prices. Non-GMO canola prices in the first ...
Source: Graintrade
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