Dairy Commodity markets start the new year on softer ground and with a weaker tone to linger into New Zealand’s new season. Commodity prices have been losing momentum since the midpoint of 2022.
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Underlying fundamentals have soured as milk supply recovers across much of the export engine and at a time when Chinese importers are more cautious with purchases. Rabobank anticipates the start of the new season will likely see some improved pricing however, farmgate milk price opening forecasts are likely to be less optimistic than last season. term. Any potential upside rally hinges on a supply shock out of the Northern Hemisphere or a meaningful recovery in Chinese demand. Beef Global beef pricing will be shaped by converging pressures in 2023; tightening global beef supplies and weakening consumer demand. It is not clear whether supply or demand side pressures will be the stronger force, however, tight beef supplies will provide an elevated pricing floor for the farmgate beef price in New Zealand. Demand from China is likely to show recovery from Q2, as it emerges from the economic effects of widespread lockdowns in 2022. In the US, a recessionary environment is expected to ...
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