What to expect from global pork markets in 2026 - Rabobank report from the 1st quarter

According to the Rabobank Global Pork Quarterly report, China plans to reduce its breeding herd to address oversupply, targeting a reduction of 1 million heads by major companies between September 2025 and January 2026. Combined with the reduction by medium-sized producers, the projection is that the Chinese breeding herd will drop to 39 million heads in 2026, down from 40.3 million in September 2025. In the U.S., the recomposition of the breeding herd remains slow due to biosecurity challenges. The EU faces increasing pressures from African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks in wild boars in Spain since November 2025 and from China's anti-dumping tariffs, following limited growth in the breeding herd in 2025. Rabobank forecasts sufficient supply to keep prices low in the first half of the year, with a tighter supply in the second half, which should drive a recovery in prices. Worldwide, increasing productivity continues to be a key focus as producers face ongoing challenges. Trade is ...