Implications of Russia's Ban on Japanese Seafood Imports

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Published Oct 27, 2023

Russia joined China in banning Japanese seafood imports due to concern over the release of the Fukushima plant wastewater. However, unlike China, Russia is a minor market for Japanese seafood. In Jan-23 to Aug-23, Russia ranked 31st on the list of export destinations. In contrast, China was Japan's primary seafood export destination. Meanwhile, Russia has emerged as one of the largest beneficiaries of Japan’s lost share in the Chinese import market.

On October 16, 2023, Russia announced it would ban the imports of Japanese seafood with immediate effect. This decision came in the wake of a breakdown in dialogue between the two nations, primarily concerning the safety of Japanese seafood due to the release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant, which commenced in late August and continued into early October.

Russia's move is described as a precautionary measure, with these restrictions set to remain in place until the safety of Japanese seafood can be assured. This action mirrors the earlier step taken by China, which had initiated a ban on seafood imports from Japan on August 24, coinciding with the onset of the wastewater release.

It is worth noting that Russia, unlike China, does not rank among the primary export destinations for Japanese seafood. In fact, for the period from Jan-23 to Aug-23, Russia held the 31st position in Japan's list of seafood export destinations, with a total value of JPY 229.27 million (equivalent to USD 1.67 million). This stands in stark contrast to China, which occupied the top spot for Japanese seafood, accounting for a total value of JPY 43.26 billion (USD 316 million) and representing 25% of Japan's total seafood exports.

The bulk of Japanese seafood exports to Russia primarily comprises of tuna, predominantly in filleted form, but also as whole fish. Additionally, other noteworthy products in this trade relationship include oysters, buri fillets, and Pacific saury.

Source: Japan Customs, Tridge

It’s worth noting that the reverse trade flow, Japanese imports of Russian seafood, is much larger.

Japanese imports of Russian seafood from Jan-23 to Sep-23 amounted to a substantial USD 618 million, dwarfing the reverse trade flow, which was almost 400 times smaller. Although Japan's total seafood imports are expected to decrease due to heightened supply and reduced external demand resulting from bans and global concerns, there is potential for Japan to retaliate against Russia by further reducing imports from this location. However, as of now, Japan has not issued any official announcements or suggestions regarding such measures.

Japan’s market losses in China could benefit Russia

In Sep-23, China's imports of HS code 03 (fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates) products from Japan amounted to zero, a direct result of the ban imposed in late August. This figure starkly contrasts with Sep-22, when these imports were valued at USD 53 million. Japan's year-on-year loss (USD -53 million), in terms of magnitude, ranked as the third largest in September, following Ecuador’s and Vietnam’s, but in the latter two it was primarily due to lower shrimp volumes and prices.

Conversely, China's imports from Russia reached USD 304 million in Sep-23, their highest level for a September in at least 6 years, marking an increase of USD 33 million compared to Sep-22. Russian-origin imports saw the most significant year-on-year gain during that month. Consequently, Russia emerged as one of the primary beneficiaries of Japan’s lost market share in the Chinese import market during September.

Source: China Customs, Tridge

Japan's share in China's seafood imports was worth over USD 500 million in 2022, with a market share of 2.6%. As there is currently no sign of the ban being lifted, this valuable share remains open for other nations to claim.