Pome Fruit Production in Canada Projected to Grow for the 2022/23 Season

Published Dec 20, 2022

The Canadian pome fruit production is forecasted to increase for the 2022/23 campaign as production is set to rebound from adverse weather conditions from the previous season. Canada’s apple production is expected to increase by 4% YoY, while pear production is forecast to grow by 15% following a bumper crop in Ontario and British Colombia. However, table grape production is expected to be reduced by 5% YoY on decreasing lower yields. As a result of the production changes, notable trends in the Canadian pome fruit trade are also expected, particularly in the US.

According to the USDA’s latest report on Canadian Fresh Deciduous Fruit, Canadian apple production is forecast to grow 4% YoY for the market year 2022/23 as production rebounds in Ontario and Quebec following adverse growing conditions in MY 2021/22. Last year’s adverse weather conditions negatively impacted production in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, leading to a 10% decline in production. However, for the 2022/23 campaign, Ontario and Quebec are expected to see production improvements due to favorable weather. British Columbia, however, will continue to see lingering impacts from the 2021 heat dome, with production forecast to be reduced once again.

Ontario, currently the largest apple-producing province, has seen a strong growing season and good harvest with excellent quality and color after a challenging year. In 2021, Canadian apple production saw frost, and cool and wet conditions, with caterpillar damage negatively impacting production and quality. However, orchard modernization made in the province with conversion to high-density orchards and growers shifting to varieties preferred by consumers has bear fruits for the next season.

Quebec will also see improved apple production in MY 2022/23 on better growing conditions. The Quebec fruit industry is seeking to modernize their orchards, and producers are looking to transition varieties to consumers preferred to grow Quebec consumption of locally grown apples. Currently, Quebec-grown apples only hold 50% market share in the province, but by switching to consumer-preferred varieties, the industry believes they can increase locally produced market share to over 70%.

In the case of pear production, strong growth is forecasted for the MY 2022/23 pear crop due to good growing conditions in British Columbia and Ontario. Pear production is forecast to grow by 15% YoY, driven by a bumper crop in Ontario, especially of the Bartlett variety. While British Columbia experienced significant heat in 2022, heat and drought conditions were not as severe as in 2021, leading to substantial improvements with production above the five-year average. Ontario experienced another year of good growing conditions for pears which will lead to production growth over the 2021 crop.

Regarding trade, both import and export volumes for fresh apples are forecast to grow in MY 2022/23. A larger domestic crop and declines in Asian production will positively impact Canadian apple exports. Imports of fresh pears are forecast to grow as increased global supplies drive increased domestic consumption.

However, Canadian table grapes, which are also considered in the Canadian Fresh Deciduous Fruit report, are forecast to reduce production by 5% YoY. Lower yields drive the reduction in table grapes in the Ottawa province, where growing weather conditions were less optimal than MY 2021/22. As a result, imports of table grapes are forecast to grow by 3% Yoy to supplement the decline in domestic production.