W1 Corn Update: Brazil's 2023/24 Summer Corn Harvest Revised Downward, Indonesia Faces Persistent Decline in Early 2024

Brazil's 2023/24 Summer Corn Harvest Forecast Dips to 25.81 MMT

The estimate for Brazil's 2023/24 summer corn harvest has been reduced to 25.81 million metric tons (mmt), a 2.4% decrease from the previous forecast in Dec-23. This revision is attributed to lower productivity estimates in Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins, and Pará, where irregular rainfall affected crops. The forecasted area for the summer corn harvest was also reduced to 3.65 million hectares (ha), accompanied by a decline in productivity expectations from 7.2 to 7.08 metric tons (mt) perha. Additionally, the estimate for Brazil's 2023/24 winter corn production was lowered by 0.8% to 96.56 mmt, reflecting less favorable conditions in the North/Northeast region.

Brazil's 2023/24 Summer Corn Planting Reaches 80.4% of Estimated Area in W1

As of W1, the 2023/24 season's Brazil summer corn planting has reached 80.4% of the estimated area, lagging 6.9% behind the previous season. Moreover, planting has progressed by 4.9% compared to the previous week. The completion of planting has occurred in São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, with Rio Grande do Sul reaching 90%.

Indonesia Faces Corn Production Decline in Early 2024

Indonesia's corn production in early 2024 is expected to decrease persistently. The projection for Jan-24 and Feb-24 indicates a further drop to only 0.56 mmt from 0.89 mmt in Dec-23. This reduction in corn production, constituting 94.88% of industrial needs, particularly in the animal feed sector, raises concerns about potential increases in feed prices, impacting the prices of purebred chicken meat and eggs.

China Grants Licenses for Local Production of Genetically-Modified Corn

China has approved licenses for 26 local companies to produce and sell genetically-modified (GM) corn and soybean seeds. This move aims to reduce China's reliance on the United States (US) and Brazilian imports, totaling 100 mmt annually. Chinese breeders plan to cultivate around 670 thousand ha of GM maize in eight provinces next year, more than double the 2023 planting, but Beijing is expected to maintain strict control over genetically-modified organism (GMO) dissemination. Large-scale tests of GM soybeans and corn have shown "excellent" results, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China.

Myanmar Exported Over 44 Thousand MT of Corn in Nov-23

In Nov-23, Myanmar exported over 44 thousand mt of corn, generating over USD 10 million in revenue. Sea freight exports amounted to 31,389 mt, earning USD 7.6 million, with 31,170 mt shipped to the Philippines, over 190 mt to Chinese Taipei, and 29 mt to Singapore. Border trade involved 12 thousand mt to China and 988 mt to Thailand, totaling 12,988 mt. With a corn planting area of 1.2 million acres and an annual output exceeding 2.6 mmt, Myanmar relies significantly on corn exports, ranking second in foreign exchange earnings after rice. Key export destinations include Thailand, China, Vietnam, Singapore, India, and the Philippines.

Russia Increases Corn Export Tariffs to USD 46.43/MT from January 11 to 16

From January 11 to 16, Russia will raise corn export tariffs to USD 46.43/mt, up from the previous tariff of USD 12.80/mt, in line with an indicative price of USD 195.2/mt. From December 27 to January 10, the corn export tariff was USD 12.80/mt.