W52 Potato Update: Potato Surplus Challenges in Iran, Price Hike in Ukraine, and Potato Export Trends in the Netherlands and Poland

Iran Faces a Potato Surplus of Over 5.5 Million Tons of Potatoes in 2023

Experts and agricultural activists in Iran are concerned about the surplus of more than 5.5 million tons of potatoes in 2023, making farmers unable to sell their produce. The surplus and shortage of agricultural products is a recurring issue in the country, and experts believe that the cultivation model must be implemented correctly to prevent this problem. The head of the National Potato Association of Iran has attributed the surplus in 2023 to a lack of planning in production, problematic export decisions, and low per capita consumption and has called for the public and private sectors to work together to address the issue.

Potato Prices in Ukraine Surge by 31% MoM in Kyiv Supermarkets, Reaching Six-Year Highs Due to Increased Demand and Decreased Supply

In Ukraine, the price of potatoes in Kyiv supermarkets has increased by 31% month-on-month (MoM), reaching an average of USD 0.52 per kilogram (UAH 20.05/kg), the highest level in six years. Auchan offers the cheapest potatoes at USD 0.43/kg (UAH 16.50/kg), while Megamarket sells the most expensive at USD 0.60/kg (UAH 22.90/kg). At wholesale markets in Lviv and Odesa, potatoes are sold at an average price of USD 0.38 to 0.52/kg (UAH 14.50 to 20/kg), with retail prices ranging from USD 0.65 to 0.79/kg (UAH 25 to 30/kg).

The demand for high-quality potatoes in Ukraine has increased while the supply has decreased, leading to a rapid rise in prices, which are already several times higher than a year ago. The price of Ukrainian potatoes in Dec-23 is 3.6 times higher than at the end of Dec-22, with large producers unwilling to sell for less than USD 0.37 to 0.47/kg (UAH 14 to 18/kg). Some farms are holding back sales of quality potatoes in anticipation of further price increases, with market participants predicting no weakening of trading activity shortly.

Dutch Potato Exports Thrive in 2023, Belgium Emerges As Key Importer, While African Markets Experience Decline

The Netherlands exported 348 thousand tons of potatoes in 2023, with Belgium being a significant importer. In Nov-23, Belgium purchased 32.7 thousand tons of Dutch potatoes. Germany and France bought fewer potatoes, but overall imports are higher. Potato exports to African countries decreased, with Senegal being the primary consumer.

Poland's Forecasted Potato Harvest Declined by 7% YoY Due to Lack of Rainfall

The lack of rainfall and uneven distribution in Jun-23 and Jul-23 affected the yield potential of potatoes in Poland, with regional and local variations in plantation conditions. The quality of tubers from 2023's harvest is estimated to be average, with an estimated 296 deciton per hectare (dt/ha) yield and a 4% year-over-year (YoY) decrease. The forecasted potato harvest for 2023 is approximately 5.6 million tons, a 7% YoY decrease.

Chilean Potato Prices Experience Slight Drop in Nov-23

Potato prices in Chilean wholesale markets have been increasing, but a slight downward trend was observed in Nov-23, with prices being 9.3% higher than the previous month. In the retail market, prices also show a slight downward trend, with supermarket prices 62% higher than those at free markets. Potato planting intentions for 2023/24 show a 7.8% YoY increase in the planting area, with an estimated 880 thousand tons of production.

Peruvian Potato Production Drops 10.5% YoY in Oct-23 Due to Reduced Planting Areas and Unfavorable Weather

In Oct-23, Peruvian potato production decreased by 10.5% YoY due to reduced planting areas and unfavorable weather conditions. This affected regions like Arequipa, Junín, and Huancavelica, while Ica and Huánuco experienced significant increases, contributing 44.2% of the national total and 76.7% and 2.1%, YoY respectively.