1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil’s Soybean Exports Projected to Reach 110 MMT in 2025

According to the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC), Brazil’s soybean exports in Mar-25 will reach 14.8 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 1.25 mmt from Mar-24. For 2025, ANEC forecasts total soybean exports at 110 mmt, posing a significant logistical challenge. If achieved, this would surpass the 2024 level by approximately 13 mmt and exceed the peak of 101.3 mmt recorded in 2023. Meanwhile, Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean harvest is estimated at 168.2 mmt. Analysts suggest that the ongoing United States (US)-China trade dispute could further boost Brazilian soybean exports, allowing Brazil to capture a larger share of the Chinese market at the expense of US farmers.

Brazil’s 2024/25 Soybean Harvest Reaches 61% Completion Amid Regional Weather Challenges

As of March 6, the Brazilian 2024/25 soybean harvest reached 61% of the cultivated area, up from 50% the previous week and 55% in the same period in 2024. In Mato Grosso, heavy rainfall slowed progress, while harvesting in other states is advancing rapidly. However, concerns remain over Rio Grande do Sul, where drought and high temperatures continue to reduce yield potential.

China

China Maintains 2024/25 Crop Forecasts With Soybean Output at 20.65 MMT

China's agriculture ministry maintained its 2024/25 crop forecasts in its Mar-25 outlook, estimating soybean production at 20.65 mmt. The ministry emphasized the need to monitor international trade policies, particularly after Beijing imposed tariffs on imports from the US and Canada.

Russia

Russia Expands Soybean Acreage in 2025 to Meet Export Demand

Russia's soybean acreage will rise by 3% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025, reaching approximately 4.5 million hectares (ha), a 3.6-fold increase compared to 2010. The Amur Region, a leading soybean producer, is expected to expand its crop to 908 thousand ha, up 1.2% YoY. Primorsky Krai will see the most significant growth, with acreage surging by 62% to 295 thousand ha, driven by export demand. Analysts attribute this expansion to Russia's growing focus on soybean exports, particularly to China.

United States

US Soybean Shipments in W11 Surpass Expectations with 10% YoY Growth

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) W11 weekly grain shipment report showed US soybean exports exceeding expectations. Soybean shipments totaled 844,218 metric tons (mt), within the projected range of 400 to 900 thousand mt, with cumulative exports also at 29.08 mmt, reflecting a 10% YoY increase.

USDA Mar-25 Report Holds 2024/25 US Soybean Forecasts Steady at 118.82 MMT

The USDA's Mar-25 report kept its 2024/25 US soybean production estimate unchanged at 118.82 mmt, with a yield projection of 50.7 bushels per acre. Ending stocks were also maintained at 10.34 mmt, slightly below market expectations of 10.37 million tons. The USDA reaffirmed its supply and demand projections, with no adjustments to soybean crushing, which remains at 2.410 billion bushels for the season.

US Soybean Exports Resume to Pakistan as Import Ban Ends

The resumption of US soybean exports to Pakistan marks a significant shift after a two-year functional ban. On February 18, 2025, Pakistan received its first US soybean shipment of 65 thousand mt, with an additional 200 thousand mt expected soon. Triggered by Pakistan’s Department of Plant Protection (DPP) on Oct-22 due to import license requirements for genetically-engineered (GE) crops, the ban had halted imports entirely. This led to US soybean exports to Pakistan dropping from USD 373 million in 2021/22 to zero in 2023/24. However, new DPP guidance in Oct-24 allowed import license applications for GE soybeans, reopening a key market. US soybean exports to Pakistan averaged 950 thousand mt, valued at USD 380 million between 2019 and 2021.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (W11 2024 to W11 2025)

Brazil

In W11, Brazilian soybean prices increased by 2.70% week-on-week (WoW) and 5.56% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.38 per kilogram (kg), driven by a slower harvest pace due to rainfall and rising domestic demand. As of March 6, the 2024/25 soybean harvest reached 61% of the cultivated area, compared to 50% the previous week and 55% in the same period last year. While harvesting is progressing rapidly in most states, heavy rainfall in Mato Grosso has delayed operations. Meanwhile, concerns persist in Rio Grande do Sul, where drought and high temperatures continue to lower yield potential.

United States

In W11, US soybean prices remained stable WoW but declined by 2.38% MoM and 25.45% YoY to USD 0.41/kg, pressured by higher production forecasts and weaker demand. The 2024/25 US soybean crop is projected at 118.82 mmt and ending stocks at 10.34 mmt, slightly below market expectations of 10.39 mmt. Moreover, soybean export sales have been disappointing, with sales to China for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) hitting a 17-year low. Market sentiment weakened further as trade tensions escalated, with the US imposing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, leading to retaliatory measures from Canada and China. As a result, soybean prices have fallen to their lowest level since early Jan-25.

Argentina

In W11, Argentine soybean prices declined by 2.44% MoM and 4.76% YoY to USD 0.40/kg. The drop was due to recent rainfall that improved soil moisture in key production areas, stabilizing crop conditions and boosting soybean ratings for the second consecutive week. Forecasts indicate additional rain in central and southern regions, which could further alleviate moisture stress on soybeans and corn. Despite these improvements, the soybean production estimate remains unchanged at 48 mmt, supported by favorable weather conditions.

Uruguay

In W11, Uruguay's soybean prices remained stable at USD 0.41/kg, supported by favorable market conditions and an expansion in planting area. For MY 2024/25 , Uruguay's soybean planting area will reach 1.3 million ha, a 19% increase from the five-year average. This growth is driven by late-season soybean planting as producers prepare for potential challenges linked to the La Niña weather pattern. The USDA forecasts Uruguay's soybean production for 2024/25 at 3.4 mmt, up from 3.2 mmt in the previous year, benefiting from improved weather conditions.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Optimize Brazilian Logistics for Record Exports

With Brazil’s soybean exports projected to reach a record 110 mmt in 2025, logistical bottlenecks could threaten export efficiency. Brazil should prioritize investments in expanding port capacity, improving road and rail networks, and increasing storage facilities, particularly in key exporting states like Mato Grosso and Paraná. Strengthening multimodal transportation, such as integrating rail and waterways, can reduce reliance on truck transport, lowering costs and minimizing delays. Moreover, exporters should coordinate with government authorities and private logistics firms to streamline customs procedures and port operations, ensuring timely shipments and reducing congestion during peak export periods.

Diversify US Soybean Export Markets

The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have decreased Chinese soybean purchases, hitting a 17-year low for MY 2024/25. US soybean exporters should aggressively seek new buyers by expanding trade relationships with alternative markets such as Pakistan, the European Union (EU), and Southeast Asia. For instance, the recent resumption of US soybean exports to Pakistan presents a key opportunity to regain market share. Furthermore, trade delegations and industry groups should increase promotional efforts in emerging markets and long-term supply agreements and reduce dependence on Chinese demand.

Leverage Favorable Weather for Expanded Soybean Cultivation in Uruguay

Uruguay is set to expand its soybean planting area by 19% in MY 2024/25, benefiting from improved weather conditions under the La Niña pattern. To maximize this opportunity, farmers should adopt precision agriculture techniques, optimize fertilizer use, and implement sustainable soil management practices to enhance productivity. Financial institutions and agribusiness cooperatives should provide credit facilities and risk management tools, ensuring farmers can secure inputs and withstand price fluctuations. With the USDA forecasting Uruguay’s soybean production at 3.4 mmt, up from 3.2 mmt in the previous year, strategic investments in high-yield seed varieties and irrigation systems will further strengthen the country’s position in the global soybean trade.

Sources: Tridge, CanalRural, NoticiasAgricolas, SpecAgro, UkrAgroConsult