W12 Olive and Olive Oil Update: Tunisia's Olive Oil Exports Surge in Value Amidst Stable Volumes, Italy's Consumption Drops as US Emerges as a Growing Market

Published 2024년 4월 1일

In W12 in the olive and olive oil landscape, Tunisia's olive oil exports for the first four months of the 2023/2024 campaign show a marginal increase in volume but a significant surge in value, reaching approximately 87.5 thousand mt and USD 739.85 million, respectively. This growth is mainly driven by a substantial rise in the average export price per kg, soaring by 73.9% YoY to USD 8.46/kg. Meanwhile, global olive oil consumption trends indicate Italy faces consumption challenges due to soaring prices and a record low harvest, with the US emerging as a growing market, potentially poised to become the world leader in olive oil consumption by 2030.

Sluggish Volume Growth Outpaced by Rising Prices in Tunisian Olive Oil Exports

Data from the National Agricultural Observatory (ONAGRI) of Tunisia reveals recent trends in Tunisia's olive oil exports for the first four months of the 2023/24 campaign (Oct-23 to Jan-24). Tunisian olive oil exports during the 2023/24 campaign exhibited a modest increase of 0.3% year-on-year (YoY) in volume compared to the same period in the 2022/23 campaign. This translates to total exports of approximately 87.5 thousand metric tons (mt). Despite the relatively stagnant volume, the value of olive oil exports during this period experienced a significant rise of 74.4% YoY compared to the previous campaign. The total value reached USD 739.85 million.

The significant value growth is primarily due to a substantial increase in the average export price per kilogram (kg). During the first four months of the 2023/24 campaign, the average price surged by 73.9% YoY to USD 8.46/kg, compared to USD 4.87/kg in the corresponding period of the previous campaign.

Shifting Landscape in Global Olive Oil Consumption: Italy Takes the Lead, US Demand Surges

Global olive oil consumption patterns are undergoing a potential shift, with Italy retaining its top position but facing internal challenges and the United States (US) emerging as a growing market. Data from the European Commission (EC), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the International Olive Council indicates that Italy remained the world's largest consumer of olive oil in 2023, reaching an estimated volume of 410 thousand mt.

A recent study by the Pieppoli Institute reveals a concerning trend in Italy. Due to a record-low olive harvest, rising energy and resource costs, and increased global demand, olive oil prices have more than doubled in recent months. This has reportedly led to a reduction in consumption by an estimated one-third of the Italian population, with nearly half (45%) switching to more affordable oils. In contrast to Italy's consumption challenges, the US is experiencing a rise in olive oil demand. Data from 2023 positions the US as the world's second-largest olive oil consumer, with a consumption volume estimated at 375 thousand mt. Industry experts predict this trend to continue, with the possibility of the US becoming the global leader in olive oil consumption by 2030. Spain, the previous second-largest consumer, has seen its consumption decline, ending 2023 with an estimated volume of 300 thousand mt. This development further highlights the evolving landscape in global olive oil consumption.