W13 Natural Spices Update: India Is Expected to Experience Turmeric Production Decline in 2024/25 Season Prompting Price Pressure, Cumin Cultivation Surges, Exports Expected to Rise in 2024

Published 2024년 4월 6일

In W13 in the natural spices landscape, India's turmeric production is forecasted to drop by 20% YoY in the 2024/25 season due to reduced cultivation areas and lower yields, likely leading to increased procurement by stockists and upward price pressure. Conversely, cumin cultivation in top-producing states Gujarat and Rajasthan is on the rise, with the 2024/25 production expected to surge by around 30% YoY, potentially boosting export volumes by 30 to 40% on competitive pricing and attracting exporters.

India Faces Turmeric Production Decline, Exports Stable

India's turmeric production is estimated to decline by 20% year-on-year (YoY) to between 920 to 950 thousand metric tons (mt) in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) due to reduced cultivated areas and yield declines. This supply shortage is expected to prompt stockists to purchase turmeric at every price drop, maintaining upward price pressure, particularly with the onset of the festive season and wedding demand. Moreover, turmeric exports slightly declined by 3.52% YoY from Apr-23 to Jan-24, totaling 131,662.92 mt compared to 136,468.59 mt the previous season. However, imports significantly decreased by 22.34% during the same period, indicating a balanced trade scenario.

India's Cumin Production Expected to Surge in 2024, Export Outlook Brightens

In 2024, the sowing of cumin in India has significantly surged in the top-producing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan. In Gujarat, the area under cumin cultivation increased by 104% YoY to 561 thousand hectares (ha), while in Rajasthan, it rose to 677,212 ha from 579,140 ha in 2023. Farmers showed heightened interest in cumin cultivation after experiencing bumper returns in 2023, supported by favorable weather conditions. Consequently, the 2024/25 season production is projected to increase by around 30% YoY to 850 to 900 thousand mt.

The largest exporter, India supplies to over 100 countries globally, with buyers including China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the United States (US), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), accounting for more than 60% of the total exports from India. India exports approximately 30% of its annual production and plays a pivotal role in global trade, with other major exporting countries such as Syria and Turkey competing with India in terms of trade. Exports from India have seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% over the past seven years.

In 2022/23, India exported about 176 thousand mt of cumin and approximately 70 thousand mt. With the higher production outlook, cumin exports are expected to increase by 30 to 40% YoY in the upcoming season. Competitive prices have attracted exporters to purchase cumin at prevailing rates, further stimulating export activity.